Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[winnet] 14/2/2024 11:09

Okay, thanks, MT.

Probably wouldn't stop AN Other investment house from doing the same though... The longer we stay off the market, the more progress we make, and the more chance of what I suggest coming to pass.

Just my opinion.

[mount teide] 14/2/2024 11:07

Winnet - Tyrus - it’s an opinion based on research that strongly suggests it’s not in their investment model DNA.

[pughman] 14/2/2024 10:34

ashkv, those current production numbers feel about right. The CWLH March 24 lifting has been sold at a small premium to Brent.

[fardels bear] 14/2/2024 10:33

Make that the half time score.

[fardels bear] 14/2/2024 10:31

I'd say rather that the current state of the game being played against JSE shares the current score is 23.5p

[winnet] 14/2/2024 10:26

ashkv - Yes, but the last time I looked the market valued us at 23.5p!! So if Tyrus came in [as part of the Woodside deal] with a bid to take us private at 50p, I would not be surprised in the slightest!

MT - zero chance? Care to share why?

[ashkv] 14/2/2024 10:25

Eye of the tiger MT!!! All the best!!! May the force be with you!!!

[mount teide] 14/2/2024 10:23

Pug - Malaysian O&G basins - already shaping up to be one of Jadestone’s primary areas of organic production development and M&A activity. If the speculative interest in Pryenees is unsuccessful(Blakeley likes a bargain) I strongly suspect Malaysia will prove to be of even greater interest to the company, as it’s a market they know very well from their Talisman days and where operators of mature fields are getting very attractive fiscal incentives to extend the licences. On what I know, I fully expect to be Jadestone shareholder in 2 years time, probably at a share price much closer to 100p than the current price. I believe there is zero chance of Tyrus making an offer for the company. AIMHO / DYOR. Sent from a phone as I sit in a clinic having the latest round of immunotherapy drugs intravenously drip into me for hours on end - a very small inconvenience considering the incredible life extending impact they‘ve had on me over the last 5 months! Whatever happens over the year ahead the disease knows it’s in a real fight against an opponent that hits back and won’t be going quietly!

[ashkv] 14/2/2024 10:18

I would be flabbergasted if JSE agreed a bid at 50p

Share price should be 80-90p by year end 2024/early 2025 at $80 plus Brent, and Montara behaving....

PB himself in a recent conference call/webinar valued JSE at 90p!!!!

[ashkv] 14/2/2024 10:14

MONTARA (H1 23 Premium to Brent $1.5) 6,000 boe/d
STAG (H1 23 Premium to Brent $16) 2,500 boe/d
CWLH (Brent? No mention of adj in H1 23 Results) 4,600 boe/d
PENMAL (H1 23 Premium to Brent $3.5) 6,500 boe/d
SINPHUHORM (Reported as Dividend for JSE Share) 1,500 boe/d

Current "Estimated" Production Prior to Akatara Start -> 21,100 boe/d

[yasx] 14/2/2024 10:05

It has for a while been something of a concern - is PB playing to the tune of Tyrus and what do they have in mind?

[winnet] 14/2/2024 09:58

I did say i was speculating, Tom. I'm just thinking about what I would do if I was PB.

[tom111] 14/2/2024 09:47

We dont know if our bid will be accepted yet,jumping the gun somewhat

[pughman] 14/2/2024 09:43

Over 50% of 2024 production with today's news and Akatara producing for 6 months will come from Australia, where costs seem to be rising inexorably. If yesterday's deal goes through, that will rise to over 80%. MT said Malaysia offered far more value, if there are so many deals out there, why are Australian assets dominating the JSE portfolio.

[nigelpm] 14/2/2024 09:30

Certainly, being suspended it gives no chance for any upside to be realised in the market so there might be an opportunity to put forward a cheeky bid that all shareholders may have to consider. It would be a nice problem to have but think it unlikely.

[winnet] 14/2/2024 09:27

Yeah, speculating obviously, but they'll want to get their money back and not on the never-never, like-us brave/stupid souls. So my guess would be private at 50p.

Most of us would take that from here and would still leave room for Tyrus to coin it with a 75k/boed business. Blakley walks off into the executive care home. Job done.

[nigelpm] 14/2/2024 09:12

What - you think Tyrus will bid at say 45p and that'll be that?

It is certainly possible.

[winnet] 14/2/2024 08:44

My bet, because PB is old and highly incentivized to sell, is that JSE will never trade again. Let's wait and see. I cannot see equity being issued again, simply because Tyrus will not allow it. If they get the preferred bidder status, then I reckon all bets are off.

[nigelpm] 14/2/2024 07:38

Ah yes I see...if more equity was issued to Woodside. Good point... Also note rbl process remains on track..

[fardels bear] 14/2/2024 07:36

I think he means empirically, once the deal is done. 30 percent of an enlarged number of shares would enable Tyres to buy more without hitting TO threshold.

[nigelpm] 14/2/2024 07:28

How do you mean? They can't increase their stake in jse just because shares are suspended. Good to see completion RNS. That's one ticked off list.

[mount teide] 14/2/2024 07:27

Confirmation of the second tranch of CWLH shareholding now complete, with three big circa 650,000 bbl lifts net to JSE expected during the next 12 months - that's circa $162m of relatively low cost revenue at $82 Brent.

[kaos3] 14/2/2024 07:21

Tyrus will be able to allocate much more capital to jse assets without triggering TO if the deal goes through.

Shares could be bought from the new owner. Who will get shares issued to as a payment. All agreed up front.

Mix of new shares, debt and seller finance would be great.

[1ajm] 14/2/2024 02:26

We can just expect that share suspension wasn't viewed as a positive to bidding for the deal. Maybe that would be ridiculous. I don't know why they would do that, I mean I do really but I don't wish to think JSE are that devious or have any reason to believe they are.

[yasx] 14/2/2024 02:09

Re dilution - I think it can be safely stated that if thr deal proceeds (big if), then they won’t be issuing equity for the same. That is simply inconceivable.

As for whatever else is really going on, over the past six months this just has a whiff of there is more to this than meets the eye.