Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[king suarez] 12/2/2024 09:27

Fardels - 8 pairs of pants!? There are only 7 days in the week - I guess you are a prudent man provisioning for emergencies..?

[upwego] 12/2/2024 09:08

Back in today! looks to cheap on production for later part of this year!
Goodluck all :)

[e43] 12/2/2024 08:26

1,SEPL
2,SHEL
3,AXL
4,JSE
5,PTAL
6,SAVE(Ceo AK seems to have got lost in S Sudan)

[dunderheed] 11/2/2024 17:14

FB I know mate but I am averaging down (lol) so happy to wait and see - maybe cost me 10-15% but I'm in no particular hurry.
MT yes hold AXL and AET so happy with them but also hold tXP so not so happy with that but I think as soon as perfs proven it will start to revalue from these relatively low points? All IMHO of course.
Best of luck all.

[mount teide] 11/2/2024 16:56

My large cap shipping industry investments performed relatively strongly over the last couple of years - and made up for a very modest contribution from the O&G sector investments - where, despite delivering strong FCF performances, saw valuations continue to be impacted by the poor sentiment of the sector.

I expect this to change in 2024, as the importance of energy security and, the sky high cost of energy transition increasingly comes home to roost.

O&G investments - good performances from Arrow Exploration, Valeura Energy and Afentra were held back by disappointing performances from Jadestone Energy and Touchstone Exploration - the rest largely tracked sideways.

I think the O&G sector is now positioned very well to benefit from political leaders who will be increasingly forced to take a more realistic attitude towards the vital role hydrocarbons are certain to play in energy transition policy over the decades ahead.

[farmscan] 11/2/2024 16:33

One would think that sentiment towards all O&G is due a turn soon.

[farmscan] 11/2/2024 16:26

And then your belt will no longer keep your trousers up.

[fardels bear] 11/2/2024 14:57

The Bottom Club and its members are causing a self-fulfilling prophecy, dh. If none of them buy in until it hits the bottom there will be no bottom

[dunderheed] 11/2/2024 14:38

I've got to admit I'm part of the "waiting for the bottom" club here at JSE but it just seems to keep on dropping?!
I have had some powder on the side (no silly remarks please) to purchase quite a few more but, think we could still see weakening / same price for a few more months and need potential milestones to reverse this?
I wonder if there are quite a few like me and when "it" comes, we will see quite a drastic %tage uplift from here?
If not, we are nearly at the point of bloody capitulation surely?
Very disappointing.

[fardels bear] 10/2/2024 14:30

We are at 380k but I daren't look what the average buying price is.

[fardels bear] 10/2/2024 14:28

Good, thanks. I plan to hold until I can put the Queen's Grill back on the holiday list rather than self catering in Corfu.

[mount teide] 10/2/2024 13:25

Yes - increased the family holding over the last 3 months to 1.47m at an average of circa 39p.

The plan is to hold for a further 2-3 years, as I think with the huge problems the renewable sectors have now run into and are likely to experience for the foreseeable future, will strongly support oil demand, price and the wider sector.

[fardels bear] 10/2/2024 13:14

Do you still hold?

[mount teide] 10/2/2024 13:10

The fundamentals changed after 3 years with respect to the operating performance of Montara Venture, news of which was very poorly communicated by the management.

Additionally, we had to absorb the huge body blow of the well heeled, left wing, woke Government of NZ deliberately preventing us from completing the brilliant Maari deal, which on completion would have seen JSE pick up a high quality asset free of charge, plus a very large cheque after paying off the headline price, from the financial benefit accrued by the deal from the effective economic date.

[fardels bear] 10/2/2024 12:42

Respect what you say about valuation tripling in three years post IPO but for those of us on a 5-8 year time frame I'd ask what the hell use is that?Nowhere in the annals or other books of advice about long term holding is it preached, yea, verily thou shalt hold for three years and not a day longer because if you do it'll disappear down the toilet.

[mount teide] 10/2/2024 12:27

npm - 'To be fair I'm seeing this across lots of ADVFN boards - complete and utter desperation and capitulation - probably means the outlook for those stocks is good.'

With respect to O&G stocks, that's the sentiment I'm picking up too.

JSE's latest drop is almost certain the result of mm's being able to position themselves cheaply in a market with very poor sentiment, to take advantage of the guided news expected in mid Feb of completion of the deal to acquire a second tranche of the CWLH asset.

[mount teide] 10/2/2024 12:14

Montara - JSE got the opex/bbl at Montara down to circa $20 at 9,000 bopd within 12-18 months of taking over the asset - from $50-60/bbl at circa $6-7,000 bopd prior to compilation of the deal.

The management need to explain how at a guided average production of 5,500 bopd for 2024, Montara's opex/bbl is back up to $60.

When Montara's Opex/bbl was $20 from production averaging circa 9,000 bopd, the operating costs were circa $65m/year. In 2024, Montara'a operating costs are being guided at an average of $120m for an average production of 5,500 bopd - that's $120m a year.

$55m a year increase (of which $14m is for charter of the shuttle tanker) - the additional $41m would have comfortably covered the cost of the work required by Nopsema on the Montara Venture being carried out in a SE Asian Shipyard, in a scenario where the field would probably have been off production for a maximum of 6 months.

Strongly suggests that the sky high cost of a shuttle tanker in permanent attendance, together with the use of a small team of extremely expensive Australian ship maintenance contractors, on very highly remunerated employment contracts, particularly with respect to their annual leave entitlement, operating with the constraint of very limited accommodation available onboard Montara Venture, has been mostly responsible for the high cost and protracted remediation of the issues affecting Montara Venture since June 2022.....and the near comedic fire fighting of the financial issues that subsequently arose from the loss of such a large amount of high value production/cash flow over such a protracted period of time.

Dont forget it was Paul Blakeley who rightly said in 2020 that after reducing Montara's opex/bb to $20, that the asset would be Jadestone's 'Cash Cow' for the coming decade - however, the very poor management since of the inspection, maintenance and operation of the Montara Venture has completely destroyed the credibility of that well supported, reasonable claim at the time.

In 2025, the operating costs are guided to drop by $25m (the annual cost of the charter of the shuttle tanker would account for circa $17.5m of this) to $95m. Suggesting, that at say an average production of say 5,000 bopd, the opex/bbl would be circa $52.


Stag - Operating costs guided at $70m for 2024. For an average of 2,500 bopd, this would suggest an opex/bbl of $77! Dropping to $66/bbl in 2025 at the guided $60m annual operating cost and same production.

The additional cost of the shuttle tanker in permanent attendance over having an FPSO over the field was $16m in 2024 - this arrangement has had the effect of lifting annual opex by $17.5 bbl.

The average cost of time chartering a modern ECO LR2 oil tanker of 1,000,000 bbls cargo capacity in 2023 was $38-40,000/day - it appears Jadestone paid at least $38,300/day for the tanker standing by at Montara, and $43,835 a day for the tanker currently at the Stag field. Both of these tankers have a significantly smaller cargo capacity than a LR2 tanker, and I suspect age profile too, and so are likely to have commanded a charter rate around $10,000/day less.


AIMHO/DYOR

[ptolemy] 10/2/2024 11:46

I suspect Blakeley is due to retire soon. Does this factor into an assessment of JSE?

[nigelpm] 10/2/2024 11:42

To be fair I'm seeing this across lots of ADVFN boards - complete and utter desperation and capitulation - probably means the outlook for those stocks is good.

[mount teide] 10/2/2024 11:07

FB - JSE did more than triple in valuation within 3 years of the IPO - strongly suggesting the pre-investment research (and post) was sound. The issues ththe management has since encountered are overwhelmingly connected to the extremely poor inspection, maintenance and operating performance of the FPSO Montara Venture.

[pughman] 10/2/2024 11:00

You've been here 5 years, what's your appraisal of where JSE is today

[fardels bear] 10/2/2024 10:37

Course he hasn't. His is the Welsh model: stand around and moan.

[nigelpm] 10/2/2024 10:28

You think you've got a better idea than Tyrus and the recent investors that put money in at 45p?