Jup Ord. Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 19/8/2016 14:31

Specto - yes, continuing the search for elusive VALUE.

HVPE really would be value if they would wake up to the UK fund managers requirement for a dividend. Other than the specialist liquidating trusts where capital distributions rule the roost, HVPE, OCL, PIN & SVI are I believe the only stand-outs against dividends. They will change as institutional pressure produces change.

[spectoacc] 19/8/2016 13:31

100 pages! Looks not bad from a very quick scan but personally I've enough PE already - FPEO (-15%), SEP (-28%), MVI (-29%), DNE (-34%) & several more pseudo-PE. Suspect you're in all those already but prefer the "paid to wait" divis on them to something like HVPE, in the absence of a really sparkling discount vs the others.

Agree there's not a lot jumping out right now, in comparison to recently. Coincidentally topped up a few MVI the other day but not sure who's selling - some more big trades through this morning. At least it's another paid-while-u-wait.

[skyship] 19/8/2016 11:52

I've been looking through the PE sector looking for somewhere to put some of the 20% CASH which has built up in my portfolio.

I've recently added to my MTH; wonder whether to do so with a small holding in MVI; and added a few more LMS prior to accepting the Tender for 100% of my holding (Tender open from 17th - 31st August; but better to do so now in case you forget!).

I've also alighted upon Harbourvest (HVPE) after their July NAV declaration of 1312p versus an offer price of 924p, ie they are offered at a 29.6% discount - this for a PE Trust which more usually trades at a c22% discount. Such a discount would imply an share price of 1023p - c11% higher than today's price.

The shares have traded sideways recently; and look to me ripe to break out higher. The are currently 923.5p-924.0p - a nice close spread at the moment.

The link below provides an impressive wealth of information to study at your leisure

[tiltonboy] 18/8/2016 12:32

Did SA over Christmas and the New Year.

Too busy coaching and playing to get to any first class games.

[gary1966] 18/8/2016 11:45

Thanks Tilts and I said to Sue you wouldn't be able to resist. :-)

Hope you are well and enjoying the new season.

Did you get to see any of the cricket over the summer?

Gary

[tiltonboy] 18/8/2016 11:12

Your broker is wrong...but then again you obviously have the wrong broker!

[gary1966] 18/8/2016 10:49

Advice required.

I did bed and isa transactions at the beginning of the tax year. I recently sold a large holding in mine and my wifes ISA and so have a large cash balance. I want to get some shares into my ISA that I am currently holding in our joint account and want it done the same as a bed and ISA to minimise the spread. I am being told I can't do this as I have already done my bed and ISA transaction this year and have used my ISA allowance. Everything I am being told doesn't seem right and I am sure is factually incorrect. Looking for a bit of hand holding and reassurance that I am not going mad and the brokers have got this wrong.

TIA

Gary

[spectoacc] 17/8/2016 09:45

Well done @Skyship - "can't go bust taking a profit".

[skyship] 17/8/2016 08:38

The Market obviously likes the Balfour Beatty (BBY) numbers - now up c10% @ 265p! Unfortunately for me I sold half lower down last week; and the rest a little too early this morning.

Still, a happy outcome, especially for any bolder holders.

[skyship] 03/8/2016 10:50

UTL discount 45% @ 150p v. 273p. Does seem excessive - will take a look, perhaps the gearing from the ZDPs is excessive...

[davebowler] 03/8/2016 10:25

Utilico -now UIL UTL.L is on a staggering 50% + discount to NAV with 30% ish exposed to Gold Mining -useful if you are worried about a crash-

[skyship] 03/8/2016 09:33

I've always considered it likely that BBY would fall to a US takeover at some stage this year. At the start of the year BBY were @ c270p, now they are at c224p - a full 17% lower - a full 24% lower for a US bidder due to the currency change. BBY could now be a very tempting target.

Being such a major infrastructure player, Theresa May may not approve; however with the right promises/commitments, surely a bidder, if planning to act, should act sooner rather than later.

One to follow...

[skyship] 30/6/2016 07:33

I made a mistake holding three Propcos over the Referendum – those three wiped out c4% of my portfolio. Happily I had far larger exposure to Private Equity – APEF, DNE, JPEL, LMS & MTH.

The UK listed PE Trusts have done comparatively well this past week due to their large $ & Euro holdings, so in most cases NAVs will have risen, some quite markedly. Of course, there could be some valuation write-downs due to falling Markets elsewhere; but as a couple of examples:

APEF NAV – ostensibly UP from 131p to c144p
MTH NAV – ostensibly UP from 176.6p to c190p

Both these now look a steal at respectively 88p (39% discount with a Continuation vote this autumn) and 154p (19% discount).

With the latter bear in mind that the discount is usually c7% because it is in voluntary liquidation and constantly selling assets and announcing Tenders at close to NAV – so that 19% discount is an anomaly; and the shares IMO are a strong buy ahead of the Interims due in just 4weeks time. I made a small top-up at 154p today. Best bet is to be a MM and look to trade on the bid. Someone sold 2k @ 144p yesterday – sold to a happy buyer who no doubt would scoop up many more at that level!

As for the liquidating LMS Capital, on which I posted recently, the NAV may well now be up from 88p to 92p; however there could be a further writedown in property manager Brockton Capital, so - who knows? All should become clearer with the Interims in 4weeks time. IMO at 56.5p LMS is a Bargain at a very Special Price (Book Title courtesy of the late Alan Clarke MP)

[skyship] 03/6/2016 07:21

After the bizarre happening last Summer when the LMS Capital (LMS) BoD tried and failed to usurp shareholders wishes for liquidation, many continue to harbour doubts as to the Board’s probity.

However, there is no escaping the 4 principal facts:

1. Their past performance with the liquidation process has been impeccable, with 63% of the NAV at the start of the process having already been returned – a figure equal to the MCap at the start of the process

2. The liquidation process is again on track with a 28.7% tender at NAV in Dec’15

3. At the AGM last month the BoD again reaffirmed the liquidation process and the continuing return of capital through Tenders; and for the first time they put a timescale to completion of the process – essentially by Dec’17

4. The current NAV = 88p; versus the offer price of 63p; ie the shares are trading at a full 28.4% discount, even though in liquidation mode

These are the basic facts which should justify an element of research. That research will quickly uncover last month’s AGM statement which revealed that already the Company is refilling the cash coffers – now up to £15m, so likely halfway to what will be needed for the next Tender.

So, now one needs to practice a little conjecture. Say the next Tender will be declared again for 28.7% - that would translate to 29.7m shares @, well let’s be conservative and predict an NAV fall from 88p to 85p, so @ 85p would cost £25.25m. Note – we already have £15m in the kitty!

So, buy @ 63p…..sell a minimum of 28.7% @ 85p…..yes, that’s a profit of 35% on that part. But wait, it gets better.

First, there is the official Tender overage – that was an additional 3.4% in the last Tender, the 4th Tender providing these profitable trading opportunities.

Add to that the unofficial overage which arises from having your stock held in a Joint Stock Nominee Account. I got another 7% from Selftrade last time around – a total of 39.4% redeemed at NAV. Many posters on the LMS thread did even better than that. The Nominees overage is a fickle friend paying out better for some than for others – but always more! This aspect will only make sense to the professional investor; but the few who visit here are just that, so I won't dwell on that.

The final soupcon of information for the time-being. The well-respected IC tipster Simon Thompson has just revisited LMS. He wrote a piece on LMS yesterday. I won’t post his entire article as the IC Online is a subscription site; however, I will post his closing remarks:

=======================
“Of course, the fall in LMS's net asset value from 96p last autumn, to 92p at end of December 2015, and to around 88p now will make some investors cautious even though the aforementioned one-off hit on an unlisted investment and the fall in Weatherford's share price account for the vast majority of the decline. However, I believe the discount is simply too deep given the impressive track record of the company in successfully divesting its interests.

I also believe that given the surge in the cash pile, and the fact that LMS's uncalled commitments to funds it has invested in is only £4.1m, then it's only reasonable to expect LMS to make another hefty cash return later this year through a tender offer pitched at net asset value, a factor that is simply not being reflected in the share price. The company is due to report results at the end of July and I would anticipate further news on likely capital distributions then. I would point out too that every time the company has announced a tender offer the share price has bounced back strongly.

Needless to say, I rate LMS Capital's shares a buy on a bid-offer spread of 62p to 63p.”
====================

So, in a difficult year VALUE is hard to find. LMS certainly represents VALUE. And if you are still looking for a hedge against a plunge in CABLE following an unlikely BREXIT vote, the LMS portfolio is 66% $-denominated.

[gary1966] 17/5/2016 10:06

Stopped out of HNR this morning but I guess that is why I put a stop loss on. Unfortunate but don't want to lose a 100% gain in a few short weeks.

[gary1966] 16/5/2016 18:53

Quite apt for me though eeza and so added to the appeal. :-)

[eeza] 16/5/2016 16:57

Couldn't consider an mnemonic like ARS(e).

[gary1966] 16/5/2016 15:55

Have put some of the proceeds from HNR into ARS. Story looks good and the TA side looks good for a rise to 8p. See Horneblower thread, post 7389. I know some of you like to visit the wild side with a small punt occasionally.

[gary1966] 13/5/2016 13:12

Sold some HNR to bank a small profit on the whole position and have 50K in for free. Nice to bank a profit for a change rather than watch the losses grow day by day.

Have a good weekend all and enjoy the sun.

Gary

[gary1966] 11/5/2016 11:19

Down heavily on RTN but bottom possibly in now and starting a turn up. For all you TA investors there are some tasty gaps well above current levels. Takeover speculation beginning with the share price at current levels.

[tiltonboy] 04/5/2016 11:25

Gary,

All good thanks. If Walsall and Burton come up, there will be loads!

[gary1966] 04/5/2016 11:20

Tilts,

Long time no hear. Hope you are well and busy. Looking forward to the derbies next season?

UK company operating in China. As you will probably remember I lost quite a lot on CAMK and so fully appreciate and understand your comment. However this is a payment processing company and so no hard assets to disappear to relatives etc. Numbers/market look compelling though. Chinese connection is however why I only bought a few, but enough to make a good profit if the numbers pan out and trade goes as expected.

ATB

[tiltonboy] 03/5/2016 21:42

Chinese = Wouldnt touch it with a bargepole!

[gary1966] 03/5/2016 21:25

Bought a few DJI today. Recent newsflow could be quite transformational.