Jup Ord. Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 05/6/2019 17:43

Indeed, share options - a common enough practice these days; and not many outstanding in their incentive scheme.

[gary1966] 03/6/2019 16:25

Including share based salaries, over £500K?

[skyship] 03/6/2019 14:59

Hi Gary

I don't view £120k (2017) & £200k (2018) as particularly excessive; especially in view of their new equity subscriptions at way above current levels...

[gary1966] 03/6/2019 13:22

Skyship,

Re PRIM, Any thoughts on salary levels as seem very high in 2017 and 2018.

[skyship] 29/5/2019 09:06

If I were to currently make just one recommendation in the Private Equity sector, it would have to be NBPE on a 21.5% discount and a 4% yield. The timing is good as it currently stands at a discount level 3pts above the sector average discount of 18.5%:

... 2019vF.pdf

[skyship] 29/5/2019 06:57

Tetragon Financial TFG) has an excellent long-term growth record in excess of 10%pa; yet at $12.70 they trade on a 47% NAV discount whilst offering a 5.7% yield.

Clearly they offer great value; and also currency divergence:

[skyship] 15/5/2019 16:25

Ploughing my never-ending furrow in search of VALUE. I recently stumbled across Primorus Investments (PRIM). Upon seeing the share price of 0.10p-0.11p I would normally swiftly pass on – the share price is a nonsense and a very clear case for consolidation, a matter upon which I have contacted the CEO.

Anyway, on this occasion I decided to read on and was quite pleased to have done so. I have an oft-stated fondness of Private Equity; and in this regard PRIM does partially tick a box. PRIM is an investment company taking stakes in pre-IPO private companies.

I read further as it swiftly became apparent that the CEO Alastair Clayton has an interesting CV and clearly has both stock-picking talents and reasonably deep-pocketed investor friends. He also has skin in the game.

Since taking control in Nov’15 of what was then known as Stellar Resources, a resources investment shell valued at c£1.25m; Clayton and his Chairman partner Jeremy Taylor-Firth (ex Singer & Friedlander) have issued a total of 1.534bn new shares raising £3.25m at an average price of 0.212p.

Both legacy and new assets have risen in value, but the shares have drifted down to exactly 50% of that average subscription price. One marked success is the sale of the private oil drilling operator Horse Hill Developments Limited which held a 65% interest in two onshore UK petroleum exploration licences near Gatwick Airport. This they sold to the listed UKOG in a cash & shares deal, subsequently selling on their UKOG stock to bank an overall £1m profit.

Elsewhere, each statutory report and each Update has revealed very thorough information on their portfolio of investments, primarily across tech and resource. Their website too provides all necessary research material:



Two other recent RNSs revealed new private investors taking a view:
# 4th Apr’19: Stephen Labrum* bought 112.5m (4%)
# 8th Apr’19: Steve Ball bought 94m (3.4%)
*Stephen Labrum looks to be the Financial Services Transfer Pricing partner @ KPMG – whatever that means!?

In the most recent Qtly update on 8th Feb’19, the CEO stated:
“I should mention that over the Quarter I have had a lot of interaction with both existing and potential Primorus shareholders. Throughout these discussions, which were predominantly positive, two themes seemed to recur that I would like to briefly address.

The first one is regarding the possibility of, at the appropriate time, using excess funds to potentially buy back some of our outstanding issued capital. Given our share price relative to the Board's view of value this argument clearly has merit. We are having a look at the ability and mechanisms to determine if this is feasible. If the results of this are positive it will certainly be one tool available to the Company to invest in itself should the value proposition of its portfolio be as compelling as we believe it is today.

Secondly a number of shareholders expressed the desire to see a corporate marketing presence on social media and other such platforms. Whilst I acknowledge this may be useful, we also see significant challenges in ensuring a presence on social media doesn't infringe upon our AIM and directors' duties, not to mention MiFID and MAR requirements. Thus, we will continue to scope a presence that is both appropriate and responsible and report back to shareholders with our solution.”

To my mind the best way to improve the share price is to be patient - be successful and the discount will close. Also a good idea to promise distribution of a %age of sale profits, or an annual dividend of, say, 3% of annual NAV. I will be communicating these increasingly common Private Equity strategies to Clayton.

I won’t go into any further detail at this stage, suffice to say that at 0.105p versus an NAV of 0.215p and with no debt, the share price is clearly value should the future newsflow reflect the Board’s optimism.

An interesting microcap on a 50% NAV discount, worthy of investigation…

[skyship] 23/4/2019 14:07

Posted this on the Aviva & General Accident pref. share sites today:
====================================================================

Personally I get my higher income from REITs rather than infrastructure funds (as per the discussion on the AV.A thread). I hold:

# AEWU - 91p - Yld 8.79% - NAV Disc. = c9%
# HCFT - 900p - Yld 5.83% - NAV Disc. = c25%
# RGL - 105.5p - Yld 7.63% - NAV Disc. = c9%
Average Yld = 7.42%

It's now quite a long time since I posted my regular yield comparison tables on the Aviva/Gen. Acc. prefs. I was lucky enough to have been out at the time of the redemption scandal.

Anyway, I see that the sps have perhaps not recovered as much as one might have supposed; especially in view of the recent turnaround in rising interest rate expectations.

Here are the current offer prices:

AV.A - 149.6p - Yld = 5.85%
AV.B - 138.0p - Yld = 6.07%
GACA - 144.0p - Yld = 6.16%
GACB - 132.0p - Yld = 5.97%

With AV.A & GACA nearest to the next XD dates (6th June), GACA is clearly the pick of the bunch at the moment.

I've bought back in at 144p this morning.

[skyship] 29/1/2019 14:08

Bought silver ETF yesterday (PHSP) after reading a piece in Moneyweek which reminded me of the Gold:silver ratio. The short article started:

“Silver is a Steal – This is an excellent time to buy silver says WirtschaftswocheR17;s Frank Doll. It hasn’t been this cheap relative to gold in a quarter of a century. It costs more than 85ozs of silver to buy an oz of gold. Etcetcetc”

Essentially, when the ratio exceeds 80, silver should be bought…

Also really like the look of the chart for the Silver ETF. Chartists get quite excited when a rising 50day MA crosses north of a rising 200day MA:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[badtime] 23/1/2019 11:35

Thanks for starting one of these threads Sky ..will follow with interest

[skyship] 14/1/2019 14:04

My Spec of the year (on the 2019 thread) breaking out; though need to see more VOLUME as leading indicators all turn better:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[skyship] 14/1/2019 14:01

Re my SPEC of the year (see Header); now looks as though we've got a breakout as leading indicators all turn better:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[skyship] 08/1/2019 17:57

Also like SMDS as tipped by Questor today; luckily bought a few on Friday!

“After a 45pc fall, this stock yields 5pc and makes a good defensive choice”



Also this, from The Times, a week or so ago apparently:

Shares of DS Smith (SMDS) will end 2019 higher:

The corrugated cardboard company has suffered a torrid 2018, losing more than a third of its stock market value to the point where the shares now trade on less than eight times expected earnings for the present financial year that ends in April 2019. That partly reflects trade war concerns and worries that a global oversupply of pulp and paper will depress prices. Those worries have led to the stock being oversold. This is an innovative company whose chief executive, Miles Roberts, has a consistent track record of improving margins since he took the job in 2010. It also enjoys strong prospects thanks to the growth in ecommerce.

[skyship] 08/1/2019 17:44

Put quite a bit of cash back to work recently – TFG, FORT, SMDS being the main purchases.

Forterra (FORT) was Jonas Crosland's tip for 2019 in the IC. Jonas has a good reputation and the story sounds good. Chart too looks interesting.

A brief extract from the IC article:

"It seems harsh, then, that Forterra's share price has fallen by a quarter this year against a 14 per cent decline by the wider materials sector. Priced at just eight times 2019 forecast earnings, with a healthy free-cash-flow yield of 11.3 per cent and forecast 5 per cent dividend yield, we think too much focus is being put on several one-off issues encountered during 2018, as well as on the signs of a slowdown at some big housebuilders."




free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[skyship] 03/1/2019 16:01

Tetragon Financial (TFG) has a really ghastly chart with a large, perfectly formed 20month Head & Shoulders hanging overhead. But the 6.2% yield and 46% discount surely heavily discounts any CLO risk, which in any event only accounts for 15% of the portfolio.

The current tender offer a bit of an irrelevance as only c4.3% of holdings. They need to be more aggressive with Discount Control Mechanisms.

Still, decided to chance a few at c$11.60.

Citywire article:


Monthly Factsheet:



free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[skyship] 03/1/2019 07:21

New thread for 2019:

[skyship] 02/1/2019 09:46

SPLITs Followers’ Thoughts for 2019

2018 was yet another difficult year, another Groundhog year. With all the same concerns rolling forward, it was inevitably going to be so, especially as both PIs and institutions continued to reduce exposure to the Brexit-headed UK. Q4 was especially impacted as concerns over an end to US growth and worries over an approaching inverted yield curve, together caused global ripples and the unwinding of any early year growth in stock-markets.

As for 2019, well, personally I don’t expect a large fall to develop as Market ratings are far from over-cooked; and here in the UK the All Share is on a lowly 11.7x PER and 4.7% Yield, so hardly valuations from which Bear Markets would traditionally evolve! I believe the Brexit Bogey to be overstated and the UK Market in particular to be oversold. Q1 could still be choppy, but I believe we could see good stock-market growth in the year ahead.

The UK indices closed the year in negative territory with the FTSE100 at 6728 (-12.5%); the FTSE 250 at 17502 (-15.6%) and AIM at 859 (-18.2%).

Personally my portfolio gained 6% in H1, then lost all of that gain in H2, finishing up just 0.7% …

My Tip for 2018 – Miton Group (MGR) – had a great run becoming a one-bagger in October, hitting 75p then falling back to close out the year @ 45.8p for a gain of 24%.

My Spec for 2018 – Modern Water (MWG) – also became a one-bagger in February, hitting 15.5p then falling back to close out the year @ 7.95p – effectively unchanged.

Regrettably I don’t have anything new as my Tip for 2019; so I am going to play safe with one we all know and possibly hold already – Regional REIT (RGL). At 92.5p they are likely on a Dec’18 NAV discount of 19%-20% and a yield of 8.75%. A return to 100p would provide a useful annual return of 16.8%.

As for a Spec – Bluebird Merchant Ventures (BMV) at 1.85p could well be a very profitable play if they and their JV partner are able to secure funding for their Korean gold-mining ventures. BMV is a mining project developer, NOT an exploration company. The Company targets old mining operations that can be rapidly and cheaply brought back into production (24 - 30 months). All action at the moment is concentrated in S. Korea and in JV with Australian partner, Southern Gold. All can be read in the new thread I opened last month:



I look forward to reading others’ New Year tips and views; and any contributions throughout the year are most welcome.

[sleepy] 27/11/2018 09:50

Non accountants (and perhaps even accountants) might find this book of interest

[skyship] 24/11/2018 09:07

Not yet sure what my Tip for 2019 will be; but I already know what my Spec for 2019 will be - Bluebird Merchant Ventures (BMV) is a microcap gold miner looking to exploit old mines in secure and supportive S. Korea.

I've started a new thread, with all the background detail in the Header:



Now would seem to be a great time for this play:

# The gold price looks to be recovering
# The chart looks very promising
# There is talk of a large Aussie miner joining the BMV/SAU Joint Venture
# There is a distinct possibility of revenue as soon as Q4'19

The Risk/Reward ratio suggests value IMO; but of course as with any AIM miner, treat it as a low allocation spec!

[cwa1] 12/11/2018 09:01

Thanks for that, I have a bit more cash on the books than I'd like normally(Brexit, general market worries, blah, blah, blah), so it is useful to have some "safe" yielders to turn to.

[skyship] 12/11/2018 08:39

Just effectively put some cash in my SIPP onto 2month deposit at a GRY of 13.6%.

The Regional REIT zeros (RGLZ) redeem at 132.9p on 9th Jan'19.

Bought 10k today at 129.95p, ie 130.66p Gross.

Pretty small beer of course, but makes £224 instead of pretty much zero interest in that time.

They may still be on offer - worth a look if you are holding too much cash.

[skyship] 26/10/2018 10:46

Sold a few things to sit on 30% cash. Will resist trading long or short as better to forgo a profit than risk a loss.

Only thing I have bought is the Balfour Beatty 10.75% conv. pref which has just 20months to go before redemption at par on 1st Jul'20. Buying at 109.65p = 110.2p inc. exps; and that provides an irresistible 5.98% GRY.

Looked at another way, with 4 x 5.375p dividends still to come, that provides a 10.25% gain over 20 uncertain months.

Next XD date is 22nd November - PD 1st Jan'19.

[skyship] 19/9/2018 09:44

Not my usual area of expertise; but have recently decided to look for a few 2% allocation specs, esp. manufacturers.

One of Simon Thompson's (IC) past tips seems to fit the bill:

# Kromek - KMK. Price @ 26p has returned to last tip level. Looks to be an interesting business..."a supplier of patented core cadmium zinc telluride (CZT)-based radiation detection technologies to the medical, security and nuclear markets"


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[skyship] 11/9/2018 15:43

IC Online updates its RGL Tip:

Shares in Regional REIT (RGL) rose nearly 4 per cent on the morning the office and commercial property landlord delivered a robust first-half performance. Headline profits were boosted by a valuation uplift on the portfolio of £27.9m, up from £7.5m a year earlier, while operating profits were higher still, thanks to a 39 per cent increase in net rental income to £26.9m.

RGL: Today change - 3.46% - Price (GBP) 98.60

Disposals of £60.4m averaged a net initial yield of 4.9 per cent, which contrasts with a net initial yield on acquisitions of 8.4 per cent. Disposal proceeds also helped to finance £40.1m of acquisitions, while £50m was raised through a retail bond. This will more than cover the preference shares that came with assets acquired from Conygar, and which mature in January 2019.

Gross borrowings rose from £376.5m at the end of 2017 to £391.9m, reflecting acquisitions costs and the preference share repayment. However, cash reserves more than doubled to £79.5m, and proceeds from disposals and the valuation uplift saw the loan-to-value ratio fall from 45 per cent to 41.2 per cent, with a target of 40 per cent. Despite an increased proportion of recently acquired assets, occupancy rates by value improved slightly to 85.5 per cent.

Adjusted net asset value is already ahead of house broker Peel Hunt’s previous forecasts for the full year, and is now expected to reach 119p at the year-end, from 106p in 2017.

IC View:
Regional REIT intends to pay off its £65m ICG Longbow debt next year, which will bring the cost of debt down to its lowest level ever at 3.5 per cent. With a sector-leading dividend yield, we remain buyers.

[skyship] 11/9/2018 07:32

Regional REIT (RGL) shoots the lights out with its Interim statement. NAV rises over 7%, even after 3.8p of dividend in H1:



Net Asset Value:
Between 1 January 2018 and 30 June 2018, the EPRA Net Asset Value ("NAV") of the Group rose to GBP426.5m from GBP395.7m as at 31 December 2017, which equates to an increase in diluted NAV of 7.7 pence per share ("pps") to 113.6pps (30 June 2017: 107.3pps; 31 December 2017: 105.9pps). This is after the payment of dividends in the period amounting to 4.30pps.

Performance:
The total accounting annualised return for the six months to 30 June 2018 was 11.0%. This takes the total accounting return since listing on 6 November 2015 to 32.0%.