Jup Ord. Share Discussion Threads

[sleepy] 05/1/2016 09:33

Tilts - didn't realise you were in Synarbor also a happy story for me. Are there still opportunities for the patient in delisting companies?

[tiltonboy] 05/1/2016 09:23

Hybrasil,

Sorry, they are well documented elsewhere, but here goes:

LXB - Firmly in realisation mode, with a commitment to return funds within a timeframe of a little over a year. My expectation continues to be within a range of 120-135p, which would give an attractive rather than spectacular return.

Local Shopping REIT - Similar to above, but with a slightly longer timeframe. Target return 38-42p.

Alpha Real Estate - a longer term play, on an anomalous discount. NAV growth will slow, as re investments are made on lower returns, but the dividend should continue to grow. I expect the company to continue buying in shares for cancellation.

Real Estate Investors - continues to find value in Birmingham, and the wider West Midland property market. I expect to see reasonable NAV growth, and the wild card of being taken out.

SKYSHIP rightly points out NBDG in the undervalued category. I will add my other thoughts later.

[skyship] 05/1/2016 08:32

One of Tilt's under-valuations might be NB Distressed Debt "Global" shares - NBDG.

These are the recent NAV stats:

18/12: 73.55p
21/12: 73.65p
22/12: 73.76p
24/12: 73.25p
29/12: 73.97p
31/12: 74.59p

Surely looks as though the fall has found a supportable level.

If so, then the offer price of 63.5p has to be a real bargain. The discount = 14.9% versus the DCM target of just 5%. IMO buybacks will resume pretty soon and if the NAV does hold, then these will soon be back up to the 69p/70p level.

[hybrasil] 04/1/2016 22:46

You are very coy tilton boy or should we know the property plays from other threads? A happy new year

[tiltonboy] 04/1/2016 21:59

2015 was a decent year with my property plays making up for a couple of poor positions, notably DCI, where a change in management, and the company being put into realisation mode has failed to improve performance.

My major contributor to performance was the takeover of Synarbor which had a carrying value of zero, but was taken out at 37p, which added 6% to the bottom line.

For 2016 I will be sticking to the knitting, which means running my existing property plays, and hoping for some recovery in a few other positions which I believe continue to be undervalued.

[skyship] 04/1/2016 15:40

redhill - due to speak to them later today or tomorrow - will report....

[redhill9] 04/1/2016 09:08

Skyship, I share your enthusiasm for LSR for 2016. The dynamics all look good - swaps expiring mid-year, restructured debt at lower rates, loads of cash, property market still favourable, high yield on the portfolio, and progressing with ad hoc sales with the potential for a total sale still possible. Combine all that with a c.35% discount and what's not to like.

[sleepy] 04/1/2016 01:58

Sky - thanks for your posts in 2015 and for setting up the 2016 thread

[badtime] 03/1/2016 22:16

Nice summary

[skyship] 03/1/2016 15:03

SPLITs Followers’ Thoughts for 2016

2015 was another difficult year; and with only a few small changes my Header for 2015 would have served well for 2016.

Just change:

# the downed Malaysian airliner in the Ukraine for the downed Russian airliner in the Sinai

# Scotland’s exit from the UK to the UK’s exit from the EU

# China/Japan standoff to concerns over the Chinese economy

The Global Macro has now remained constantly insecure for well over two years; and is set to continue in similar vein for the foreseeable.

A low risk policy can predicate poor performance; but frankly, I’m in no mood to change the way I’ll approach Markets in 2016. David Kostin of Goldman Sachs suggests we’ll see another Groundhog Year:
=======================================

Kostin is predicting 2,100 for the S&P 500, just as he did for 2015, as a bifurcated stock market will result in a flat line for the index over the course of 2016. Channeling baseball legend Yogi Berra, Kostin said 2016 will be “déjà vu all over again.” Historically low market breadth — meaning that a few large-cap stocks are supporting the market — and the spectre of rising interest rates are keeping the index in a narrow trading range, Kostin said. He said companies struggling to maintain margins whilst rising labor costs are adding to headwinds.

A rising dollar DXY, +0.10% will benefit some stocks and harm others, according to Kostin. “The domestic consumer economy is strong but many industrial companies cite a contraction in business activity,” the strategist noted. “Growth equities are outperforming value which is a pattern that occurs when economic growth is weak. Cyclicals have lagged sharply led by Energy and Materials but defensive sectors trade at stretched valuations.”
===============================

The UK indices closed the year with the FTSE100 down 4.9%; the FTSE 250 up 8.4% and AIM up 5.3%.

Personally I had a poor year, again missing many good opportunities. I missed my reduced annual 8% target; and closed up a mere 2.8%. I hope others did better…

My Tip for 2015 – Marwyn Value Investors (MVI) – advanced c15% before closing the year unchanged

My Spec for 2015 – Avarae Global Coins (AVR) – rose 20% before closing the year up 9.5%

I again have two tips for 2016, one a serious investment, one a lower allocation spec:

# Firstly, Local Shopping REIT (LSR). This propco served us very well as my 2014 NAP. It had a poor 2015; but I expect better news on the liquidation front in 2016; possibly aided by the return of Private Investor funds returning from Buy-to-Let to the more traditional property investment. The shares are 27.25p versus an NAV of c45p

# Secondly, a blue chip recovery and takeover play – Balfour Beatty (BBY). I would be very surprised if they see out the year as an independent operation. They are now at 271p; and competition in a bid situation could well release something much nearer 400p.

As before, I look forward to reading others’ New Year tips and views; and subsequent contributions throughout the year ahead. The thread again attracted very few posts in 2015. Hopefully people will find more to share in 2016…

[hpotter] 16/10/2002 00:26

terrybill,
Have you checked with your broker ? The dividend was paid on 6th Sept so something is amiss. Did you perhaps purchase the shares after the ex-div date?

Only 7 weeks 'til the next dividend !

[terrybill] 14/10/2002 17:02

divi still not paid 14/10/02.will it be paid?any thoughts,URGENT PLEASE

[terrybill] 18/9/2002 13:10

divi due to be paid 6/9/02.not received yet.any ideas?

[timbo003] 11/8/2002 20:05

I've been spending some time looking at splits this weekend, this one looks as good as any, it goes ex divi later next week, I think I might buy some tomorrow, the next divi will return 10% of my investment (so my maximum loss is 90%), I still don't really understand splits, but this one looks like it is a cheap call option on the FTSE 350 that pays a 40% annual divi (at least for now)

[dad37] 01/8/2002 19:36

Hello, I bought today at 19p looks good value.

By

[yogi] 01/7/2002 17:43

Last year was mid July also:

18/07/2001 17:06 RNSREG JDT .................

[terrybill] 01/7/2002 14:36

the dividend declaration is late.WHY??? usually made in june.

[luapdog] 09/5/2002 08:20

This fund rated a "buy" by ABN Amro's David McFadyen.Estimates the manager only needs to achieve a total return of 2.4% p.a. to meet the div. requirement and the proposed final capital entitlement of 164.1p for the zero shareholders.I am thinking of topping up here! Have a look at www.citywire.co.uk 09/05/02. DYOR and no advice intended.LD

[hpotter] 08/5/2002 22:50

The drop today was because its gone ex dividend. So it was really a 1/4p rise.

Given all the bad press I don't understand why JDT don't get rid of the last 5% x-investments and tell the world they have a clean bill of health.

[yogi] 17/4/2002 10:23

Results were in line with expectations and assuming no major problems I would agree with luapdog's analysis that the dividend may be cut for 1-3 Q's but otherwise I'm still assuming further share price growth. Even now the discount to NAV is pretty good. In addition the top ten holdings all seem like good safe choices in the current market - so here's hoping:). Anybody who was brave at the 41/42p bid is now going to be a very happy bunny with good growth and income likely.

[luapdog] 17/4/2002 09:44

Much will depend on what happens to Aberdeen's Splits.As Aberdeen Asset managers is one of the largest s/holders in JDT, they may HAVE to sell their JDT shares just to raise liquidity in their funds.Otherwise it would seem to me that JDT will probably be able to maintain the dividend as the fundamental investments held by JDT are 96% equities with only 4% in other splits and these (4%) are already bombed out so that's in the price already.IMHO the prognosis is quite good for JDT although I will not be surprised if the div is cut possibly by 5-7% to appx 7.9%.IMHO the bold investor will hang in here.The NAV is 69p against a current share price of 50.25p.No advice intended, and DYOR as always.A good page for research on splits like this is www.splitsonline co.uk which covers all the information on share holdings, gearing etc and informs on the diposition of the assets held.LD

[hpotter] 16/4/2002 16:58

Lets hope we have a few more days like today.

[yogi] 27/3/2002 20:47

The 2 links above contain elements of the top 10 investments Jupiter Dividend & Growth - details below taken from 1st link.

Daily Financial Statistics updated 26/03/02

Total Assets (£m) 364.73
Loans (£m) 140

Shares ZDPs Ordinary Income

Market Cap (£m) 110.500 65.200
No. of Shares 100000000 160000000
Closing Price (GBX) 110.50 40.75
Closing NAV (GBX) 121.10 64.77
Discount -8.80% -37.10%
Traded CCY GBX GBX
Exch. Rate 100 100
Updated 26/03/02 26/03/02

Key Investment Areas based on 28/02/02, estimated on 27/03/02

Geographical Sector Industry Sector %
UK Miscellaneous 91.98
UK IC income & IRC 2.48
Ireland Miscellaneous 1.95
UK IC Income Shares 1.67
Finland Miscellaneous 0.97
UK Debt - General 0.96

Shareholders % Holdings %
updated 31/12/00 updated 28/02/02
Aberdeen Asset Management 20.88 British American Tobacco 4.30
Aberdeen Preferred Income Trust 7.34 Alliance & Leicester 3.80
Leveraged Income Fund 6.25 Lloyds TSB Group 3.20
Morley Fund Management UK 3.97 Scottish & South'n Energy 3.00
European & Growth Income 3.13 Persimmon 2.30
IMI 2.00
Powergen 2.00
Tomkins 2.00
Abbey National 2.00
Safeway 1.90