Jup Ord. Share Discussion Threads

[gary1966] 06/2/2018 16:10

Traded some more RUSP in for CAML today at 290.5p. They will be producing some serious cash flow at current metals prices and the outlook for Copper and Zinc is good with stock levels declining. Good record of passing cash to shareholders and so looking forward to some good dividends. Takeover last year is looking very well timed.

[skyship] 06/2/2018 08:51

Happy to be back into MGR this morning at average 39.5p.

[skyship] 03/2/2018 16:48

Thnx to eeza on the RGL thread for posting this link – after the 666pt fall on the DOW yesterday this suggests Monday might be an interesting day across all financial Markets!
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“In a late Friday press release - one which is certain to exacerbate today's selloff when markets reopen on Monday- the Fed said it would bar Wells from expanding its assets beyond their end-2017 level until it "sufficiently improves its governance and controls."

“As a result of Yellen's "parting gift" which came after today's market bloodbath which in point terms was the biggest Dow plunge since the financial crisis, even greater than the US downgrade in August 2011, WFC shares plunged a staggering 8% in after-hours trading now that the Fed appears to also be finally a regulator as well.”

[gary1966] 31/1/2018 07:31

Well done Skyship. Been a flat to slightly down start of the year for me, which is surprising given how well commodity prices have performed this month. Good luck for February.

[skyship] 30/1/2018 16:20

I know there's still a day to go, but for me (and I hope for all) January has once again proved to be a nicely profitable month.

In my case mainly due to the two stocks I tipped in the Header:

# My Tip for 2018: MGR up 20%
# My Spec for 2018: MWG up 106%

I've now taken the profits in both; though would hope to get MGR back into the fold should we see a pullback to c40p. MWG? Well, a spec is a spec and this is one that paid off for a small allocation.

[skyship] 27/1/2018 14:13

GBPEUR flirting with the 1.14 ceiling this last week. Broke through as far as 1.15, then pulled back to the breakline. If £ can start moving forward again then we could well see a rise to the next resistance at 1.20.

A 5.2% rise in the spot rate would/should translate to a 26% rise in SUP5:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[skyship] 18/1/2018 11:54

Interesting views on the Bond market:

[skyship] 16/1/2018 08:55

Simon Thompson revisited his Miton (MGR) tip in his IC Online column yesterday. MGR is my Nap for 2018 - see Header.

The chart suggests the share price may be breaking out of its downtrend - so both technically and fundamentally MGR looks a good trade ahead of its next numbers - Finals mid-March:

Miton upgrades again:

While I was on sabbatical at the end of last year, fund manager Miton (MGR:38p) issued an trading update that revealed an 8 per cent rise in its assets under management (AUM) to £3.63bn in the four months to the end of October 2017, tracking well ahead of the £3.5bn year-end forecast of analyst Stuart Duncan at broking house Peel Hunt. This prompted Mr Duncan to raise his year-end AUM estimate to £3.7bn, up from £2.9bn at the start of 2017. Mr Duncan also upgraded his full-year pre-tax profit and EPS forecast by 9 per cent to £6.3m and 2.8p, respectively, implying 16 per cent EPS growth year on year. Since then, the board has spent £3.4m of the company’s hefty cash pile, purchasing 8.5m shares in an earnings-enhancing share buyback at 39.75p a share.

By my reckoning, the company is currently being valued on an enterprise value to post tax profit multiple of less than 10 times – a significant discount to the sector average. A 3.7 per cent prospective dividend yield for the 2018 financial year is also attractive. So, having initiated coverage at 23p ('Poised for a profitable recovery', 4 Apr 2015), and last advised buying the shares at 41p (‘Plain sailing’, 27 Sep 2017), I continue to see upside to my 50p target price.

Buy.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[gary1966] 04/1/2018 14:09

Taken profits on just over 70% of my TAP position this morning, as with this mornings move up the position was getting quite sizeable. Picked up on the fact that revenue is broadly in line which sounds like a possible small miss even though EBITDA are slightly ahead of expectations. Share price has moved up strongly of late and all the indicators are looking like it is overbought in the short term. Happy to retain the remaining 3K shares to re-balance things a little and would be happy to buy back on any reasonable pullback.

[skyship] 02/1/2018 10:31

The only two I hold now are INLZ & RGLZ.

The latter now too expensive; but may still be an opportunity with INLZ.

Someone sold 14k @ 146p on Friday. I topped up with 7.5k @ 147.2p (147.95p inc. costs). GRY for maturity @ 155.9p on 10/04/19 = 4.22%.

Someone else has taken another 5k this morning; but if interested you may still get lucky...

[skyship] 31/12/2017 16:51

CREI isn't my favourite in the new commercial property "Income" sector due to its NAV premium. Personally I prefer EPIC, RGL & RLE; but whichever, this interview explains exactly why I believe the sector to be safe in 2018 for income and growth:

[gary1966] 30/12/2017 19:22

Skyship,

Thanks for setting the thread up again this year.

Yes it was a good year for me last year. Hard to express as a percentage as I have to live off the money I make each year. Covered all the living costs for the family and had quite a bit more at the end of the year than the beginning. I was hoping some of my suggestions would have appealed as I thought I was being quite conservative. Good trading records, low P/e, little or no debt, good cashflow and outlooks.

I know you like your discounted NAV plays and your timing is normally good. Thanks again for the INL tip.

All the best for 2018 and hope we can both have good gains with our respective approaches.

[hybrasil] 30/12/2017 18:55

Thank you sky for putting this up.
Its a thread I always look at and has produced several great ideas.

A very happy new year

[waldron] 30/12/2017 16:18

sky something that might interest your readers and posters



POSSIBILITIES

US INTEREST RATE HIKES UPPED MORE DURING 2018

US DOLLAR RISES AGAINST STERLING MORE THAN ENVISAGED

DIVIDENDS MORE IN STERLING


REGARDING THE US DOLLAR

I AM CONFUSED AS TO WHY THIS GUY THINKS IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHAT WITH ALL
THE TAX MONEY COMING BACK AND INTEREST RATE INCREASES

[waldron] 30/12/2017 16:12

MAY YOUR CAPITAL GAINS BE MANY AND HUGE

and your divis be substantial

enjoy your 2018

[skyship] 30/12/2017 15:25

Gary - thnx for the above. We follow very different paths; hopefully your's was successful this year.

The new thread for 2018:

[skyship] 30/12/2017 15:17

SPLITs Followers’ Thoughts for 2018

2017 was yet another year surprising to the upside, especially over in the USA. As I said in last year’s Header when looking back at 2016 - “Asset values globally were sustained by continued QE and the indefinite suspension of the normal business cycle.” So it proved for 2017.

As for 2018, well, I rather like what Bearbull wrote in the Christmas Issue of The Investors Chronicle: “This time last year I concluded with the thought that the best we can hope for is that the worst does not materialise; and I am tempted to say much the same for 2018. Come to that, such a sentiment may hold good for 2019 & 2020, or for as long as Donald Trump remains in The White House and the UK’s Brexit process is entrenched in a slough of doubt, recrimination and anger.”

For investors it seems as though we are stuck in Groundhog territory; but if we see a repeat of the 2017 rises, then I’m sure we would all be well content.

The UK indices closed the year in positive territory with the FTSE100 again at an all-time high of 7688 (+7.6%; & 5% of that in December!); the FTSE 250 at 20726 (+14.7%) and AIM at 1050 (+24.4%).

Personally my portfolio rather surprised to the upside in H1’17, then disappointingly flat-lined, closing up 11.6%. Rather devoid of ideas; unwilling to step outside my comfort zones; and remain so!

My Tip for 2016 – Local Shopping REIT (LSR) – had a profitable run up to 32.5p, then closed out the year @ 31p for a lacklustre gain of 8.8%.

My Spec for 2016 – Balfour Beatty (BBY) – had another see-saw year in a relatively narrow band; closing out the year @ 296p for a gain of 9.6%.

I don’t really feel very confident about any Tips for 2018; but I do believe asset management group Miton (MGR) to be undervalued at 37p; especially after their Trading Update in late November. Broker forecasts have been raised to c50% above the current share price

As for a Spec – Modern Water @ 7.75p could be due for another run. Coincidentally MGR managed funds subscribed £500,000 to their last placing at 11p in May’17.

I look forward to reading others’ New Year tips and views; and any contributions throughout the year are most welcome. A rather comatose thread these days…

[gary1966] 29/12/2017 13:15

Well 2017 has been a good year for me, especially the last three months where most of the gains have been made. Jan and Feb were good then through to end of September lost those gains. I have looked back each year to 2008 to see if there is a pattern of when I make money and when I don't but sadly there isn't.

Anyway the failures this year were BNN Technology, DX Group, Forbidden Technologies, Kennedy Ventures, Nanoco Group and Pantheon Resources. Most of the positions were quite small and three have been sold during the year.

I still retain Forbidden Technologies as I believe the technology to be good, it just needs to be sold. New CEO seems to be a lot more business savvy. Position to start with was small and it is a lot smaller now and so happy to sit it out.

Kennedy Ventures has been retained but my resolve is being tested as the new man in charge doesn't seem to be achieving much and now the shares are suspended as the accounts aren't going to be ready on time. There can be no excuse for that. At the beginning of the year I could have sold at a good profit as momentum was behind the stock and I felt that they should have continued going higher as the newsflow was all positive. Then with the share price having retreated 50% they did a discounted placing. Share price hasn't recovered since.

Still hold Nanoco as Cadnium free dots are the way forward. TV's with this technology should become more in the mainstream this year and so see them as being a big beneficiary. Position isn't great and so happy to sit out.

Winners out of the ones I held at the end of last year Asiamet Resources, Crest Nicholson, Communisis and Taptica.

Asiamet was the star moving from 2.475p to 10p mid as I type. Newsflow has been fantastic this year. Management have a very strong track record being ex Oxiana. There will be plenty of newsflow in 2018 to keep the price moving, hopefully upward. Looking to go into production at end of 2019 and I am assuming that valuation discrepancy will narrow the closer we get to this point. I believe commodities will continue their good run this year and so will be good for the sector as a whole.

Crest Nicholson I sold at £5.33. Sadly it continued to move up quite quickly after I sold by another £1. Anyway it was just over a 50% profit for me and up nearly 18% on the start of the year.

Communisis moved from 43.375p to over 60p where I sold them to invest in Inland Homes that I made a quick nice return on.

Taptica was the other star performer moving from £1.725 to £4.65 as I type. I had an initial target of £4 on these but decided not to sell. Growth is fantastic and they have excellent management that seem to know what they are doing. Business is in the right place at the right time and they are industry leaders. Made a substantial and good acquisition during the year that will diversify them from a product point of view as well as geographically. Ample opportunity to cross sell. Another smaller acquisition earlier in the year also looked useful. Management haven't put a foot wrong since I bought the shares and so happy to back them that they will extract real value from the acquisitions. P/E is undemanding and if they went for a Nasdaq listing the co would be trading on a much higher rating. I actually increased my holding during the year.

Good purchases this year have been my position in Central Asia Metals. I bought in at around £2.08 and now £3.06 and I have received good dividends as well. Reverse takeover this year looks very well timed. Combined entity will be producing a lot of free cash flow that will pay down the debt they took on quickly. Base metals prices continue to be strong and approaching breakout levels. I believe still very undervalued but the market will probably need to see some figures from the combined entity to power the share price much further.

Horizonte Minerals has been another good buy. Bought the majority of my holding around 3p and they are 5p as I type. Moving towards BFS in first half of next year. Interesting recent acquisition that looks cheap on any metric but as usual it will be in the execution. Very little financial commitment re the purchase until they start producing. By that time the asset will be worth many multiples of what they paid for it.

Griffin Mining I didn't mention on here as I was too embarrassed to mention as it is a Zinc miner operating in China. In my defence they have been operating there trouble free for 20 years and have a very good relationship with the authorities. Zinc prices have been strong this year and that trend is expected to continue. Production is increasing. Waiting for approval to mine zone II that will double production. Admittedly they have been waiting a while. Infrastructure all in place when the approval comes through. They are throwing of tonnes of cash and have repaid $44m of debt this year and so are now debt free. Plan going forward is to reward shareholders with juicy dividends. Company is ridiculously cheap even without zone II approval. I see similarities with Central Asia Metals. Bought at 64p, 74p and 110p for an average around 81p. Currently around 116p. Looking forward to a trading update in the new year, results later on and clarification about dividends.

MOGP, TRD, VLTY and NTBR are other holdings that I am taking into next year and believe all are undervalued based on what is in the public domain.

Sorry for the long post but does help to revisit why I am holding the shares that I do.

GLA for 2018 and hope that it is a healthy and prosperous year.

Gary

[skyship] 22/12/2017 10:10

Indeed, wishing the select few All Health & Happiness for Christmas and The New Year

[gary1966] 22/12/2017 10:00

Happy Xmas and New Year to the few that frequent this board.

[skyship] 15/12/2017 12:08

An interesting RNS today from propco tiddler Highcroft (HCFT). Charles Butler - the former CEO of Market Tech (the £3bn propco which owns great chunks of Camden Market) has been appointed Chairman. May amount to nothing at all; but certainly a vote of confidence in HCFT & its Board.



I recently bought a few @ 880p; and was waiting for another offer at the same price; but on today's appointment I've decided to pay the full 900p for my balance.

The March Finals for the y/e Dec’17, should reveal a total dividend of 44p (41p) and an NAV of c1110p (1097p as at 30th Jun’17). So at 900p the yield = 4.9% and the discount = 18.9%.

Perhaps nothing exceptional; but if there is more to this appointment than immediately meets the eye, then there could be some good upside from here.

[gary1966] 28/11/2017 11:31

Really good trading update from VLTY today. Expecting eps of 10p this year and dividends starting in 2018 once 2017 figures are known. Cheap even with todays rise.

[plasybryn] 22/11/2017 11:59

General Meeting today?

[gary1966] 22/11/2017 08:13

Picked up some VLTY yesterday at 78p. Experiencing strong growth, low PE and net cash. Trading update next month should provide the catalyst for a reversal of recent share price weakness.

Another good set of figures from TRD this morning and commencement of interim dividend. PE of around 6 and strong cash position. Trading outlook good.