Jup Ord. Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 06/9/2018 07:24

An excellent and extensive report - with this key intro:

Why invest in Volta -

Over the past five years, Volta has delivered 12.9% share price returns (dividends re-invested basis), a higher return than benchmark indices (both equity and bond). Manager projections on the existing portfolio indicate a similar income yield outlook. Critically, the distribution on monthly returns has a bell-shaped pattern indicative of a business that manages risk well. We note the Sharpe ratio (another measure of risk/return) has been more attractive than peers. One reason for this attractive profile is that the fund’s income has primarily been driven by interest coupons and has not been reliant on volatile capital gains (or losses). We also note that the underlying exposure is to hundreds of end-borrowers, creating credit risk diversification. AXA IM, the fund manager, has a proven track record and has the scale to: (i) access and negotiate attractive deals unavailable to smaller participants; (ii) build a significant market presence with the associated market intelligence across a broad range of investment opportunities; and (iii) invest heavily in back- and mid-office control functions. In terms of valuation, Volta’s discount to NAV is greater than immediate and broader peers and high by historical comparisons. Such a discount appears anomalous with Volta’s superior long-term NAV returns and in-line volatility profile.

[skyship] 30/8/2018 19:38

Jeff -

Two things:

# Firstly, I believe you are incorrect in that the dividend is covered by earnings

# Secondly, re capital growth - look at the stats with the Interims on 11th September. Peel Hunt are forecasting y/e NAV of 112p. I suspect the Jun'18 figure will be North of 110p.

The shares are anomalously cheap because of the CIC overhang. I love market anomalies - I believe this to be one. I will post again on RGL after the Interims in now just 2weeks time...

[scbscb] 30/8/2018 18:25

Skyship. I had a look a RGL but wasn't convinced. Their charges seem to be very high with property management, fund management and performance fees. Also although the yield is high it is not covered by rental income, so some of it is a return of capital which in my case will incur a tax charge. Finally the record of capital growth has been poor since the IPO in 2015.
It is getting increasingly hard to find real value at the moment. Jeff

[skyship] 25/7/2018 11:12

A really great article on RGL - for both the equity and the new bond.



The equity is a stand-out buy as they are down at 94.8p (where they are on a current yr yield of 8.5%) for the sole reason that CIC is selling down the holding they acquired when selling a portfolio of properties to RGL some 18months ago.

Once the overhang is cleared, RGL will be back to 100p pretty much overnight IMO. Then further progress to 105p where the yield will still be 7.7%!

[eeza] 17/7/2018 09:28

OT

@Sky

[gary1966] 15/7/2018 15:37

Sky,

Just vented my spleen on the link you provided. Won’t kid myself that it will make any difference but made me feel better. Always had reservations about a remainer being in charge of a party responsible for negotiating our exit. Sadly it looks like the remainers lost the battle but through the back door are going to win the war.

Hope you are well and enjoying life.

Gary

[skyship] 14/7/2018 19:07

To any Fellow Brexiteers on this thread:
======================================

Anyone who objects to The White Paper should write or email the PM on this link - apparently everything is read - but by whom !



We have to keep on fighting - if it all ends in a mess it will be the fault of the urban, secular, liberal internationalists who are betraying democracy.

Below is a remarkable quote from Mark Leonard, Centre for European Reform 2005

" Europe's power is easy to miss. Like an "invisible hand" it operates through the shell of traditional political structures. The British House of Commons, British law courts and British civil servants are still here, but they have become agents of the European Union, implementing European law.. This is no accident. By creating common standards that are implemented through national institutions, Europe can take over countries without necessarily becoming a target for hostility."

Well I feel hostile!

[skyship] 14/7/2018 12:35

I track 17 PE trusts which currently provide an average discount of 15%.

Clearly the discount is not the only investment criteria with which to assess value in this sector. Past performance, geographical spread, yield are just 3 of the many other guiding factors (as RAM will remind us); but in my book the discount is the over-riding factor.

Here is how the sector looks at the moment:

# Over-valued / SELL: 0%-10%:- BPM, FPEO, HGT, MTH (*1)

# Fully Valued: 10%-15%:- DNE, ICGT, PEY

# Fairly Valued / HOLD: 15%-20%:- CLDN, JPEL, PIN, SLPE

# Good Value / BUY: 20%-22%:- HVPE, NBPE (NB - Both have high US content)

OTHERS (*2): LMS, LTA, MVI, OCI

NOTES:
*1 –; Liquidation stock
*2 –; Random discounts. Best Buy –; LMS @ 52.5p

[skyship] 30/6/2018 13:50

Yesterday was the end of H1'18:

UKX: 7637 v. 7688 = -0.7%

MCX: 20831 v. 20726 = +0.5%

So everything pretty flat YTD.

As a mere mortal in retirement drawdown mode, I finished the 6months up 5.1%. Happy with that as I drawdown 8%pa; and in these more uncertain times I'm targeting just to recover the drawdown.

Entering H2 30% liquid...

[skyship] 20/6/2018 11:24

Private Equity trust HVPE today revealed a great May performance; and the share price showing a chart breakout. Up 11p, but that is less than 1%. I’ve bought back in for a few. Currently at 1250p-1252p and looking great value on a 23.6% discount.




free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[skyship] 15/5/2018 14:36

For those still interested in commercial property plays:
=======================================================

The warehousing strategy appears to be meeting with investor approval across the sector; so I played into that trend by buying into off-the-radar mini-propco Highcroft (HCFT). At the year end the portfolio stood at 74% warehouses and retail warehouses.

The more I read Highcroft's (HCFT) recent Prelims the better I like them, especially considering the Yield of 5.1% & the Discount of 21.6% at today's offer price of 910p.

There was an interesting appointment to the Board at the end of last year. Charles Butler - the former CEO of Market Tech - the £3bn propco which owns great chunks of Camden Market. Certainly represented a vote of confidence in HCFT & its Board.

More headline info here:

[skyship] 28/4/2018 17:01

In view of the current $ strength and the recent uptick in the Private Equity sector, I decided to take a look at the Premium/Discount stats. Bear in mind that the largest $ exposures are HVPE, NBPE & PIN.

FPEO----380p----6.4% PREMIUM (tho to Dec'17; so s/b an increase in underlying NAV)
ICGT----860p---10.3% Discount
HGT----1885p----2.4% Discount
HVPE---1234p---20.0% Discount
NBPE----965p---22.2% Discount
PEY----1086p----5.6% Discount
PIN----1940p---14.3% Discount
SLPE----338p---13.2% Discount

Average discount now = a mere 10.2%

NBPE looks to be a stand out buy based only upon this admittedly rather crude analysis; but "BUY the ANOMALY" is something I believe in, so bought in @ 965p.

Investor Presentation:

[skyship] 20/4/2018 17:15

Sorry, yes Tilts right of course. I meant RLE.

Mine is the rather befuddled brain as just out of hospital after a hernia op. All very painful and loads of drugs trying to help...

HeyHo....RLE still the right decision!

CWA1 sold 80% and hoped to be back in for a third bite of the cherry; but looks as though they've flown. Been a good play. Sounds as though you've bought and stayed in; hope so...

[cwa1] 20/4/2018 16:44

Cheers tilts.

[tiltonboy] 20/4/2018 16:35

He meant RLE

[cwa1] 20/4/2018 15:46

Afternoon Sky

Brain having an off day here....

Looked up RGL but just seeing Regional REIT-however the price of that one seems to be just over the pound rather than the 56p you mentioned, so presumably the wrong one. Any chance of a pointer or link to the one you mentioned?

Cheers

PS: MGR having a "good hair" day, you still in there?

[skyship] 20/4/2018 14:21

In last week's IC article following RLE's Finals they stated:

"Prior to these numbers Liberum was forecasting adjusted NAV of 71.4p/share at 31 Dec'18"

Assuming that NAV and the proposed 3.5p annual dividend, then at 56p:

# The NAV discount = 21.6%

# The Yield = 6.25%

Decided to make a small top-up at that 56p this morning.

[skyship] 05/4/2018 09:12

Topped up my VOLTA Finance (VTA) after today's Interim Report. At 703p the yield = 9.1% and the NAV discount = 15.8%

The CHAIRMAN’S STATEMENT reads very well, especially the last bit of para2 regarding Discount control Management:
======================================


Dear Shareholder

When I wrote to you in the autumn of last year some caution seemed merited towards the ebullience in financial markets. Subsequently, this enthusiasm has, indeed, been tempered. Government bond yields have risen sharply in some regions, most particularly the United States, and “risk assets” such as equities have seen an increase in volatility. Against this backdrop, the net asset value (“NAV”) total return of Volta, at 2.7% for the six months to 31 January 2018 (and an estimated gain of 0.7% in February 2018) is respectable, if below the long-term target run-rate of returns.

More disappointing, however, is the share price total return of -0.7% for the six months to 31 January 2018. This reflects a widening of the discount of the share price to NAV to 14.2% as at that date. Despite efforts to bring Volta to the attention of a wider audience and ongoing attempts to address any structural impediments to an improved share price rating, so far this has not been reflected in a narrower share price discount. I would note in this context the recent reduced ratings across a broad peer group of incomeorientated listed investment funds including direct Company peers. So Volta’s de-rating is not unique. That said, the Board, Investment Manager and broker have recently discussed this and we will redouble our efforts in the coming year. In my meetings with some Shareholders there has been a suggestion that our Company should commence either a regular tender at NAV or repurchase shares in the market. These mechanisms can be a double-edged sword, as some have found to their cost. However, they have a time and a place. The Board are active in their consideration and will use such discount control measures if they believe them to be in the best interests of Shareholders as a whole.

Before we become too glum, it is important to remember that Volta’s share price, with dividends reinvested, has generated an annualised return of 11.2% since inception in 2006. It also offers a dividend yield of 8.7% on the share price as at 31 January 2018. More importantly, this dividend is comfortably covered from income and coupons received on the underlying portfolio. In an environment where cash rates in euro are still negative, this is a highly attractive yield, particularly given the risk profile embedded in the underlying portfolio. As I have noted previously, it is the extent and quality of these cash flows that will, ultimately, drive total returns, not the vagaries of investor sentiment. Further, these cash flows come from a variety of different sources. Volta’s diversification can sometimes be a hindrance to understanding the nuances of the Company. However, that diversification is a real strength, particularly when compared to our peers.

etcetcetc

[skyship] 19/3/2018 16:56

Indeed; and thnx for the broker upgrade news on the MGR board...

[cwa1] 19/3/2018 15:57

Happy days re MGR, decent results.

[skyship] 19/3/2018 14:56

MGR moving ahead again after today's Finals:



After a 900k purchase @ 42.5p they've moved on to 42p Bid.

[gary1966] 05/3/2018 15:01

Sold VOD temporarily at a little over break even so that I could start the process of moving ARS into my ISA. Fortuitously I have only dealt with the buy side of the transaction at a little over 9.5p and they almost immediately have moved to 12p and dips appear to be getting bought. Strangely stronger after the US markets open. Happy to have an inflated position in the short term.

Have today taken the chance on selling most of my GFM holding and some of the CAML holding that I acquired on the recent drop to substantially increase my position in LGEN. 15p of earnings in the first 6 months and real momentum in the business in all areas. Results out on Wednesday which could easily show earnings of 30p+ and a good trading update. Just feel that they are undervalued on a P/E of a little over 8 and a well covered dividend yielding 6%+ at current levels.

ATB

[gary1966] 15/2/2018 16:03

Sold the remainder of my holding in RUSP today and took a chance on VOD at all in cost of £2.01. Just feel that it has fallen too far and historically at around this price, RSI and momentum level there have been good returns to be had. Bit of a gamble but one where I see limited downside (famous last words).

ATB

[gary1966] 13/2/2018 12:41

Purchased some LGEN a few days ago at 250p. Current year trading going very well and good business momentum. Yielding 6%+ at current levels.