Jup Ord. Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 07/8/2020 13:39

Alp - regrettably I don't have that sort of capital; if I did I would be buying a 2nd home back in the UK. We are headed back there soon as we have a daughter & family down in Cornwall and the clock is ticking our end.

We will likely buy in Cornwall; but first have to sell here - though it is a highly marketable 300yr old stone farmhouse with separate accommodation across the lawn - just 40mins south of Bergerac airport, so I suspect it will attract buyers pretty quickly.

I too am focussed on capital preservation, so am trading both SIPP and personal a/c at half the levels I would normally commit.

Still, Silver and the propcos are delivering well, so up 5%YTD and might well reach my 8% annual target.

[alphorn] 05/8/2020 09:42

Sky - very difficult times IMO. I am really focussed on capital preservation in a nutshell and have almost nothing in the markets. There is huge risk out there.
An idea that I am dusting off is to add small BTL's (not in the UK) again. The thought process being that however bad the situation becomes people have to live somewhere and small good quality BTLs will always be in demand.
I appreciate your detailed analyses but may see more risk than you at this point?

Btw should have put some funds into precious metals.

[skyship] 03/8/2020 09:22

Bought back into AIRE after today's RNS, which surely underlines the apparent value @ 49p. NAV discount = 44.3% (Mar'20) and the prospective yield on a 3.3p dividend = 6.73%; though I would expect that dividend to work out rather higher.

Particularly note the 2nd half of the RNS - the property managers BUY 1m shares at 59p!

[skyship] 01/8/2020 14:23

Alp - LOL - but does seem as though perhaps more upside than downside...

I admit; you have consistently called Sterling better than I have done!

[alphorn] 31/7/2020 10:33

There is risk which is why I am not using leverage at this time. I have been uber bearish sterling for a long time and have made very substantial gains. Having said that IMO sterling is settling into a new 'norm' in terms of €/CHF cross rates.
In terms of € it is now 1.11 spot. If there is a form of EU arrangement it would move quickly back to 1.20 and maybe 1.25. If there is no deal then IMO 1.05 towards parity is likely.

At times like this covered forex options can provide some income as well.

[redhill9] 31/7/2020 10:01

I'd thought about buying Sterling on the possibility of a EU deal being agreed (some encouraging noises recently about various trade deals with other countries/groups) but I'm not sure the potential upside is worth the risk of it going the other way.

What sort of gain are you anticipating - maybe 7-8%?

[alphorn] 31/7/2020 09:29

Sky - I get worried when we agree on a forex position!

You may have read elsewhere that I have turned bullish sterling with some positions (cash plus covered options) a few weeks back at €1.10 on the basis that some form of deal will be agreed prior to year end, plus sterling has fallen probably far enough when looking at the state of other economies.

What do you plan to do with your view?

[skyship] 31/7/2020 08:53

Getting rather tempted to BUY the £/EUR rate:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[skyship] 21/7/2020 09:11

SILVER / PHSP: So, 2weeks after my 118 above, we've hit that 1st target of 1500.

We should expect some consolidation around this previous 2016 & 2019 resistance; but once we get above 1520........on to the next target of 2100!

[skyship] 19/7/2020 14:33

PCA - Interesting trades Friday pm - 230k @ 196.75p. Have to be BUYs.

Though my target is for 220p. I nevertheless decided to bank the 10% turn @ 195.65p. I thought the psychological resistance at 200p might constrain the recent advance; but the real reason is I'm just happy to scalp a 10% turn ahead of the weekend.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[skyship] 07/7/2020 17:44

Most commentators believe it a good thing to hold some Gold in your portfolio; and in these strange times that has been a good call. Silver has been a bit of a laggard, but recently starting a pullback.

IMO we could be on the cusp of another major upward move. PHSP (the silver ETF)look good for a short-term run up to 1500p, break that level and 2100p beckons:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[skyship] 07/7/2020 08:19

Today's Prelims from REIT Palace Capital (PCA) certainly should exceed most expectations. Does make one wonder, other than the unpopularity of CEO Sinclair, just why they alone in the secondary/regional sector should be standing at a vast 52% NAV discount.

Looks like an anomaly; and anomalies present opportunities.

Sp moving slightly better this morning (180p), but would expect an early move up to the 200p level; aided by the chart breakout from the recent base.




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[wllmherk] 28/6/2020 23:01

I believe so, same as any other REIT. They are a quality play IMO.

wllm

[starpukka] 28/6/2020 15:42

Wllmherk, thank you. Looks good if the dividend is maintained. I presume they are obliged to pay out 90% of their income, etc ?

[wllmherk] 27/6/2020 23:05

Have a look at AEWU star, a substantial discount to NAV and dividend yield of over 11%. They go xd in early August.

wllm


ps-their exposure to retail relatively small :)

[starpukka] 27/6/2020 22:45

Thank you Skyship. SREI have postponed their div and it looks like PCA were going to announce their div intention early this month.....and have not.

As PCA's ex-div date is 2nd July we can only conclude it won't be paid. Poor management not to confirm either way though.

Have I missed something ?

[skyship] 27/6/2020 18:25

Starpukka - A constant discussion on the Commercial Property thread (CP+), as I'm sure you are already aware.

Personally I feel SREI are again good value at c33p; and even PCA might be worth a look down at their low of 175p.

Get it right and the REITs are a useful asset underwritten trade. Of course, if we are heading for a double dip back to the low 5000s on the FTSE, then surely everything will again suffer.

[starpukka] 27/6/2020 11:53

Hi Skyship. I have some free cash and I am looking for a decent Reit; preferably at a discount to NAV with the ex-div date due soon. Any suggestions would be most welcome.

[skyship] 24/6/2020 08:32

Thnx YSL. With zilch transparency on the repayment potential of their loan book, not one I will enter at this stage. Strange that the 900p offeror hasn't returned with some statement of intention.

[yieldsearch] 16/6/2020 12:56

Skyship: PSSL potential liquidation play?

[skyship] 14/6/2020 11:12

"I am aware I am out of alignment with the apparent views of the Fed, ECB and BOE on this."

No harm in that!

[cc2014] 14/6/2020 09:03

I see markets revisting 5000 too although I'm not sure if it will happen over just a few trading days or whether it will be a long protacted sell-off over a couple of years.

I hold no equities.

Inflation will be the key. How much stimulus can the central banks put in before inflation starts running away. I suggest not much more. I am aware I am out of alignment with the apparent views of the Fed, ECB and BOE on this.

[skyship] 13/6/2020 14:15

Markets sure were a great short last Monday. Regrettably I was still in the process of researching for a spreadbet or CFD a/c; so missed the fall. I will be further researching when in hospital for a knee op tomorrow.

What do others think of current Market levels? I believe we're likely to be revisiting the 5000 level lows; so happy to be 70% CASH & holding mostly just ZDPs on an average GRY of 5.5%; whilst still being up 2%YTD thanks mainly to GGP & DJAN..


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[skyship] 13/6/2020 14:02

More great drilling results for GGP. Will they end up this year as a 10-bagger?