Jup Ord. Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 10/3/2020 21:08

AEW UK REIT launched in May’15 amidst a flurry of listings by other small REITs, mostly concentrating on the undervalued regions.

AEWU is managed by AEW UK Investment Management which employs a team of 26. It is part of AEW Group, one of the world's largest real estate managers with EUR70.2bn of assets under management as at Sep’19.



The most recent trading Update on 16th January revealed these stats as at 31 Dec’19:
# Port = 35 regional properties
# Port Value = £195.8m
# Port split: IND – 48.5%; OFF – 23.1%; RET – 13.3%; Other 15.1%
# NAV = 97.24p/share
# Occupancy = 96.14%
# EPS for Q4’19 = 2.18p
# Q4’19 dividend = 2p/share (Targeted annual dividend = 8p/share)
# LTV = 26.3%
# Significant lettings ahead of estimated rental values
# Shares in Issue = 151.56m
# Borrowings: £51.5m to Oct’23 @ Libor + 1.4%. 90% hedged to max. Libor + 2%



So, in Feb’20, with everything in the garden looking rosy, the Company decided to launch a £20m equity raise at 97p/share. The endeavour was of course unfortunately timed, as the emerging Coronavirus scared off potential buyers, though they still managed to place 7.2m new shares.

On Black Monday (9th Mar’20) the shares dropped momentarily from 90p to a low of 83p, before recovering through that momentous day to close at 88p. Further progress today to 90p where the shares stand at an 8.2% discount and provide a covered yield of 8.9% - the highest in the sector.

[skyship] 07/3/2020 10:57

Asmo - back in the 70s my wife worked for John Lewis (Peter Jones, Sloane Sq.) as Sports Social Secretary - provisioner for all their sports activities - had her own storeroom where she could even have a cigarette - most people smoked in those days, so was quite an attraction for all and sundry!

The staff swore by their suberb annual bonus; so for sure a sudden and unexpected large hole in their family budgets.

[skyship] 07/3/2020 10:42

Parking this here for reference:

[asmodeus] 05/3/2020 20:51

I used to be so envious of the Poster who worked for John Lewis, and now sorry for him with the huge fall in his annual bonuses.

[skyship] 04/3/2020 10:18

Volatility always presents opportunities, so I suspect most of us here will be making a few trades.

Personally I've done so, though with no great conviction. I've also built up more cash, so now at just under 50%. Mentally prepared to miss a profit rather than risk a loss.

Most IMPORTANT - Be aware of the danger of wearing a Face Mask:

[skyship] 28/2/2020 18:28

BARK - Well, glad I bought only a few. May well average down at 30p on Monday.

What a week that was. Even the REITs toppled, some excessively, so got some very cheap AEWU early on this morning - 9% YIELD!

Personally went into this with high cash levels, raised yet more thanks to DJAN. So I'm looking for buying opportunities.

CJ - those EPIC look tempting for a top-up; or do I get back into RGL - my favourite REIT above all others. Will spend much of the weekend analysing as the Meteo suggests very little time out in the garden!

[gary1966] 24/2/2020 14:21

SLP - and so it came to pass, traded back to the 50-55p level. Rest assured had I taken the profit or top sliced they would now be 90p!! :-)

[cousin jack] 21/2/2020 10:32

As often with Skyship’s suggestions I over analysed it and simply put it on my watchlist. However I did recently follow his idea and bought COFF which turned into a very profitable trade.

So thanks Sky and well done on DJAN.

Now watching Ediston as seems to be falling back towards yesterday’s levels.

[redhill9] 21/2/2020 09:34

SKYSHIP - Doh! No, I put DJAN on my watchlist but hesitated and then gasped when I saw the rise this morning.

An opportunity missed for me but congratulations to you for such a good spot, and thanks for sharing it! Next time I'll be more decisive.........

[gary1966] 21/2/2020 07:37

Sky,

Thanks for taking the time to respond and extremely well done on DJAN.

Unfortunately whenever I sell shares on an elevated RSI they keep going up and visa-versa!! Recent example MPAC I sold at 263p based purely on the elevated RSI and a short time later they traded a whole £ higher and I lost out on a substantial additional profit. The similarities between MPAC and SLP at that RSI point is that they were/are still very undervalued from an earnings/outlook perspective. I have decided to remain in SLP as I believe that even after the recent rise it is extremely undervalued on any metric and there is a suggestion of substantial dividends starting at the end of this current financial year. As I plan to hold I can guarantee the price will drift back to the levels you mention.

ATB

Gary

[cwa1] 21/2/2020 07:34

Excellent call Sky :-)

[skyship] 21/2/2020 07:31

Redhill - I do hope you bought a few DJAN after my post last week (P. No.31).

The bid arrived this morning. OK, only at a 50% premium, but still extremely happy with that as I recently upped to a full allocation holding.

[skyship] 20/2/2020 18:01

Gary - Being an IC subscriber I saw ST's tip for SLP - very well timed; and you did well to follow it.

I would not because I won't ever buy anything in politically insecure territories.

In SA the big new hope Ramphosa has utterly failed to get a grip with the ANC and corruption. Well worth anyone considering a SA investment to search/download/read the speech by:

FORMER PRESIDENT FW DE KLERK, CHAIRMAN EMERITUS of the FW DE KLERK FOUNDATION

TO: THE FW DE KLERK FOUNDATION ANNUAL CONFERENCE - 31/01/20

Speech Title; 30 YEARS AFTER 2 FEBRUARY 1990

Of course, if its a quick trade then OK, but don't leave money exposed to South Africa.

As for the specifics of the short-term in SLP. The price rose from 41.5p to 48p on ST's tip, sucking in a load of new buyers. They were rewarded with those great numbers on Monday - the share price is as you see below.

When I said they were overblown they were 66p - they sold off in the afternoon back to 61.5p. As eeza noted on the JLP thread - watch the RSI, which had moved over the important 80 line versus 50 when ST tipped on the 10th.

I would expect them to trade back to the 50p-55p level.

Incidentally I would never set too much store to a notional PE in a mining stock; especially one in a country where earnings cannot be remitted.

All in all - a good trade; & I hope you have at least top-sliced!


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[asmodeus] 20/2/2020 17:39

I wonder if ShareShark is still pally with Mr Bloomberg?

[gary1966] 20/2/2020 12:05

Skyship,

Even with the recent rise they are on a current year cash adjusted PE of 2-3. I really would value your insight on why you think they are seriously overblown, just in case I and Eeza have missed something.

ATB

Gary

[eeza] 20/2/2020 11:49

Still seriously undervalued, imo.
ST agrees.

[skyship] 20/2/2020 11:31

Gary - well done with that play. Looks to be seriously overblown now IMO.

[gary1966] 20/2/2020 09:45

I know no-one on here would have taken a look at SLP that I mentioned just over a week ago. Anyway the compelling story is getting out there and re-rating is taking place. Pleased to say they are up over 40% since then and 75% YTD. Good news is with the way Rhodium and Palladium prices are rising they are still ridiculously cheap.

GLA

[skyship] 16/2/2020 17:04

As regulars may recall from last year's thread, Silver (in the guise of PHSP) had a stupendous run last Autumn, exactly hitting its chart target of 1500. Since then the price made a fast retrace to under 1200, before rising and consolidating around the 1300 level.

The AU/AG ratio is now at a pretty unprecedented 89x, suggesting silver may again be cheap; it is certainly slightly lagging the recent strength in gold.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[redhill9] 15/2/2020 15:56

Very interesting SKYSHIP. Just had a look at Friday's trades and seem to be lots of small transactions (i.e below £1k). Bid/offer spread looks tight which is encouraging. Thanks for this, looks worth considering as a punt.

[skyship] 15/2/2020 06:49

RE Daejan (DJAN) - the 80% family owned Propco:
===============================================

Mark Jenner, Daejan’s company secretary, said there are “no current plans” for Daejan to cease being a publicly traded company.





The Freshwaters will not give ground on this, or anything else. But I suspect that taking the company private is increasingly likely so as to avoid investigation, publicity and criticism.

They know full well that a tender offer at a fair price will deliver certainly 75% of shares in public ownership, then Section 103 of the Companies Act permits them to buy in the balance.

A FAIR PRICE?
# 10% discount to NAV = £107……a 106% gain from £52
# 12.5% discount to NAV = £104……a 100% gain from £52
# 15% discount to NAV = £101……a 94% gain from £52

If people begin to think this to be a possibility, then the share price will begin to close the alarming NAV discount.

I think it will happen; and will likely happen this year. There being no point in waiting any longer.

[skyship] 14/2/2020 12:08

redhill - I too have been in and out, usually profitably.

You are right of course - distribution targets have slipped in the past; but I hope that the nearer they are to the end of the timetable, the more likely it is that they will now reach their objectives. In the meantime the substantial discount tends to underpin matters.