Jup Ord. Share Discussion Threads

[hazl] 01/1/2020 14:01

Thanks skyship for bringing this to my notice.
Yes I have had GGP for some time.
I wonder what 2020 holds?
Hi Erogenous I'm sure we crossed paths somewhere in the past.
Perhaps it was in CTECH....no longer hold.

[gary1966] 01/1/2020 10:58

Happy New Year Skyship and everyone else.

IMB and HZM for me. IMB at historically incredibly cheap levels with 12% divi well covered by free cash flow. Well documented sellers and sentiment towards the tobacco industry have led to current price and I believe opportunity.

HZM will secure more financing this year on a world class Nickel asset. Secured $25m royalty finance from Orion Mine Finance. They don’t tend to do $25m deals and so expecting to hear of them supplying more finance this year. Hope and expect more news on financing to unlock more value this year.

DNK may just be worth keeping an eye on as well as most of the financing secured this year and due to go into production in 2022.

Good luck everyone with your selections.

[sleepy] 31/12/2019 14:42

Thanks Sky for setting up the thread. Well done on RGL in 2019!

[skyship] 31/12/2019 13:47

new 2020 thread posted

[skyship] 31/12/2019 13:46

SPLITs Followers’ Thoughts for 2020

2019 – Plus ca Change - another Groundhog year. A year of political upheaval, a year of doubts and fears. Will the US/China trade talks end in calamity? Will the Markets finally implode as the Central Banks continue to tinker? etcetcetc.

But, as I anticipated this time last year, the Markets shrugged off concerns as there was real value to be had in a continuing low interest rate environment.

We now enter 2020 with a positively upbeat PM heading a new Government determined to take the UK out of the slough of despondency – the drift and delay of the May years. Global investors have been underweight both the FTSE and the £; so the New Year might well see a break into new high ground, especially as valuations remain far from over-stretched.

The UK indices closed the year in distinctively positive territory with the FTSE100 at 7542 (+12.1%); the FTSE 250 at 21883 (+25.0%) and AIM at 958 (+11.5%).

Personally my portfolio gained c11% in H1, then progressed more slowly in H2 before closing out up 19.7% thanks to a good December.

My Tip for 2019 – Regional Properties (RGL) – had a great run contributing 21p of capital gain and 8.2p of income – a combined 29.2p (31.6%). They will remain a core holding in my SIPP.

My Spec for 2019 – Bluebird Merchant Ventures (BMV) – also did well, twice spiking up to gains of 57% then 40% before closing out the year @ 2.4p – up 30%. I will roll these over for another year – see below.

My tip for 2020 is one I’ve mentioned on my 2019 thread, GREATLAND GOLD (GGP) – see P. No.32:



At 1.80p they look to be finally on the cusp of a breakout, after the consolidating whipsaw action took the whole of 2019 to play out. The incredible drilling results have so far failed to attract new buyers; but I expect that to be remedied in the year ahead, delivering a doubling of the Sp.

As for my Spec for 2020 – Bluebird Merchant Ventures (BMV) - following the recent grant of Mining Permits at their two S. Korean projects, at 2.4p the £8.5m MCap could soon prove ludicrously cheap with the prospect of gold pouring within 12months.



I look forward to reading others’ New Year tips and views; and any contributions throughout the year are most welcome, however rare!

[skyship] 02/12/2019 11:47

Following further outstanding drilling results and confirmation that Newcrest will continue drilling throughout the summer (It's 42c out there!); another great PI interview with GGP's CEO & Hd. Geologist:

[skyship] 21/10/2019 13:52

Mentioned before; but doing so again as the chart is suggesting we may see a breakout North very soon. OK, this is an AIM-listed mining stock, but the facts suggest a substantial under-rating at current levels. Well worth a little reading before discarding out of hand:

RE: Greatland Gold (GGP)

GGP is a gold explorer, with many nascent projects throughout the highly prospective and politically secure Australia.

In March GGP signed a Farm-in Agreement with Newcrest, so that Newcrest has the right to acquire up to a 70% interest in their Havieron gold prospect by spending up to US$65 million. The deal includes the contemplation of using Newcrest's existing Telfer Mine nearby as a toll-treat facility to support any future mining opportunities at Havieron, potentially reducing any future large capital expenditure requirements; and the many years needed to permit and build a commercial mine.

GGP could well continue as a very happy junior partner to Newcrest; however my rather logical suspicion is that Newcrest will decide to take 100% of a very lucrative pie, rather than leave 30% in GGP’s hands, especially following the recent outstanding drilling update – see comments in links below. Newcrest might progress matters by making an offer just for the Havieron prospect, or even for GGP itself. In the event of the latter a bid would surely have to be double, or well over double the current 1.82p (£65m MCap).

As to confidence in the current Market valuation, it is surely interesting to note this very interesting piece by the CEO of Primorus Capital (PRIM) after they had taken a holding of 35m shares at 1.71p in Nov’18 & Jan’19. Seems as though the CEO, Alastair Clayton, may actually know more than most on the subject:

“ Shareholders will no doubt be aware that in the Quarter we began to build a share position in Greatland Gold PLC. At the time of writing we have 35m shares representing just under 1.1% of the issued capital, purchased at an average price of 1.71p per share. This investment decision was predicated on the outstanding exploration results released in December 2018 for the Havieron Gold Project near Telfer in Western Australia. We have been looking for a quality gold-related investment for a while as we believe gold exposure would be a good balancing influence in our portfolio. Shareholders may not be aware I researched my thesis on intrusive-related gold deposits in these relatively obscure regions of WA and the Northern Territory and studied the nearby Telfer Mine geology and geochemistry. I am of the belief that Havieron may prove to be one of the most significant gold discoveries globally in recent times and I am pleased that we have been able to build a meaningful stake. We note that on 5 February Greatland announced a host of what we consider to be outstanding results for the second half of the discovery drill programme at Haiveron, comprising holes HAD006 - HAD009.”







GGP has to be viewed as an interesting speculation rather than an investment prospect; and it would be wise to read the evidence and especially follow the posts and the links on the GGP thread.

GGP thread:


Chart getting very interesting. Could we very shortly see a breakout North at the apex of the triangles:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[skyship] 20/10/2019 10:03

The opportunity to park cash in BBYB for c9months seems now to have passed. With the last buy at 107.75p (108.3p gross) the GRY falls to 3.25%.

Those still looking for yield could perhaps consider the Aviva irredeemable prefs, the Best Buy of which is GACA. Take a look at the GACA thread.

GACA provides a 6.08% yield; and there is the distinct possibility that the parent company may wish to redeem that expensive debt for corporate as well as financial reasons. In which case there would have to be a seriously attractive mark-up. 20%+.
Sp turning better on Friday - 145p-146p.

Personal targets are for 157p (5.65% Yld) toward the end of Q4'19; then on to 174p (5.1% Yld) by the end of Q1'20.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[skyship] 11/9/2019 09:27

Do take a look at Greatland Gold (GGP) post yesterday’s update on the Newcrest Mining test drilling. Major gold miner Newcrest is buying into the find at the highly prospective Havieron project.

In March GGP signed a Farm-in Agreement with Newcrest, so that Newcrest has the right to acquire up to a 70% interest by spending up to US$65 million. The deal includes the contemplation of using Newcrest's existing Telfer Mine nearby as a toll-treat facility to support any future mining opportunities at Havieron, potentially reducing any future large capital expenditure requirements and the many years needed to permit and build a commercial mine.

As things progress it has to be viewed likely that Newcrest would seek to make an offer for the whole project, or even for GGP itself. In the event of the latter a bid would surely have to be double, or well over double the current 1.81p (£64m MCap).

[skyship] 05/9/2019 15:13

DB - thnx for that; however German residential slammed by bizarre 5yr rent freeze. Also SMTP represents a currency risk; so personally will continue to play the more readily understood UK propcos...

[cwa1] 05/9/2019 15:08

Clickable link:-

[davebowler] 05/9/2019 15:00

Why not have a look at SMTP German Property at 40% discount to NAV ;
hxxps://www.summit-properties.com/downloads/2019-07-15_Company_Presentation_final.pdf

[skyship] 05/9/2019 10:23

Sounds as though we're in the same boat then. Not surprisingly, 71% of my remaining holdings are propcos - AEWU, EPIC, HCFT & RGL - for a combined yield of 7.2%.

[cwa1] 05/9/2019 08:57

Up 14.3% sounds highly respectable to me, I know of many that would kill for that sort of figure! Like yourself I've had a decent year but have been raising cash levels too and quite happy to wait for bargains to come to me, or sit on my hands whilst I wait. Who knows where this political farrago will end up.

[skyship] 05/9/2019 08:39

With so much political disarray I've decided to cash in much of my portfolio and await developments.

I know many have done really well this year, personally I'm up just 14.3% versus the UKX at 8.7%. So happy with that for the time-being. Now at 60% CASH, after a small top-up in GACA @ 142.3p for a 6.2% yield.

[skyship] 05/9/2019 08:31

I was way too conservative with that silver projection. It's already hit that 1500p target!


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[skyship] 09/8/2019 09:11

O/T - Just making a file note of the new cabinet:

[skyship] 04/8/2019 17:11

Study the chart (see ADVFN link below) and you will instantly see why I believe further rises are in order for the AVIVA prefs.

Set aside the interest rate scenario and look at where the AVIVA prefs are trading versus ELLA. (Ecclesiastical Ins. 8.625% pref)

You will see the cataclysm of the appalling attempt to redeem the Aviva prefs at low levels. Aviva naturally backed down when the Manure hit the proverbial, even with questions in Parliament.

Aviva will never try to do the same thing again, so really the prefs should be back tracking ELLA, but no, they've been trading at a 10%-15% discount ever since. At the moment ELLA yields 5.55% versus 5.93% for AV.A & 6.06% for GACA.

There is also of course the scenario suggested on the AV.A thread that Aviva may make a fair and general offer as part of a capital restructure, if so, then quids in! I'd accept a 5% yield; though institutions might insist upon 4.75% - that would be 187p for GACA versus the current 146p.

Whatever, I confidently expect the ELLA gap to narrow; and will enjoy the 6% yield whilst waiting.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

T

[skyship] 19/7/2019 08:19

Fantastic breakout for Silver. Likely to run all the way to 1500 within the next 6months or so...


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[skyship] 17/7/2019 08:45

NBPE NAV & Dividend updates: 30 June 2019 NAV per Share of $18.72 (GBP14.71) increased $0.29 (GBP0.09) from $18.43 (GBP14.62) 31 May 2019 NAV per Share.

They’ve also announced an increased dividend, so once again yielding 4%.

That NAV was with Cable @ 127.34....now @ 124.2 the NAV is up to 1507 and the discount up to 25.0%. Way out of line against their peers. A quick move to 11.50 beckons...then on to 12.00


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[skyship] 27/6/2019 14:40

Unfortunately only sold half my spec oil play PMG when the share price fell through the floor of support @ 61.5p. Wondering whether to get those back. Would perhaps have more confidence if CEO Tom Cross believed a little more in Investor Relations!



Bought them back at 53p. B/S cash at £30m versus MCap @ £52m; so has to be rare value down at this level again. Will add should they drop back further to the historical 50p support level.

[skyship] 23/6/2019 10:27

Sunday always a good day for a little leisurely research. Here is the story on what I believe to be a very good value play. Commercial Property is my joint favourite sector for value, alongside Private Equity. Following the recent Strategic Review announcement, this one offers the very real prospect for corporate action and perhaps a 12.5%+ gain in the near future - see text. I was a recent buyer at current levels.

=======================================

AEW UK Long Lease REIT (AEWL)

AEWL’s Mission is to invest in long lease properties to generate a secure and predictable income return, sustainable in real terms, whilst at least maintaining capital values in real terms.

It has however been a bit of a dog since its over-confident IPO two years ago.
Then 2 months ago they announced the Administration of their largest tenant, which accounted for 9.8% of their rent roll and 9.4% of their property portfolio. Their valuers stated that should the properties be vacated then the result would be to wipe £4m off the previous £10.75m valuation - a 4% NAV impairment !
On 10th April the Company issued a statement saying:

============================================
“In view of the sub-scale size of the Group, its performance since IPO, and the recent news in respect of Meridian Metal Trading Limited (MMT), the Board is reviewing the options for the future of AEWL.
The Board will seek to achieve value for shareholders either by expanding the Group's equity and asset base to achieve full dividend cover, considering offers from interested parties, or by selling the Group's portfolio and returning funds to shareholders.”
============================================

On 9th May a further statement conveyed better news re MMT and this was fully confirmed with an Update on 22nd May:

============================================
-- We are pleased to announce that earlier today the leases have been assigned to Meridian Steel for all three properties. Under the terms of the new lease arrangements, the passing rental income for the three industrial assets, two located in Dudley and one in Sheffield, will remain unchanged at GBP659,000, following an initial 12-month rent free period. The leases, which will run for a period of eight years, are linked to the Retail Price Index, with annual reviews and are all guaranteed by DITH.

-- Following the assignment of the leases, Knight Frank LLP, AEWL's independent valuer, has valued the properties at GBP8.85 million. The impact of this revised valuation would increase the Group's reported NAV based on the balance sheet as at 31 March 2019 (see below) by GBP2.05 million (2.55 pence per share).

=============================================

So, the net effect is that the NAV is restored to 95.77p and the Company is undergoing a Strategic Review, as essentially it lacks the critical mass to continue as it is.

Other high-yielding propcos confronted this problem earlier in the cycle through a placing, or by underwriting large portfolio acquisitions – EPIC & WHR are two such, both doing so at the underlying NAV.

IMO it may now be too late to adopt the same route, so perhaps more likely that AEW, the £60billion AUM property asset manager, may have to call time on this minnow and ease it out of the public sector through a trade sale or liquidation.
It is now nearly 11weeks since the Review announcement; so it is surely likely that some resolution will need to be announced fairly soon, I would suggest certainly before mid-July.

With the shares trading at 76.5p-77.0p; one is buying at a 19.6% NAV discount and a 7.1% yield. So a good yield whilst one waits for whatever outcome; but IMO the most likely outcome is some corporate action which will provide shareholders with a quite rapid c12.5% capital gain from current levels.

=============================================
Incidentally, one last thing, just in case you are wondering about their Retail exposure, here is a sector breakdown of their property portfolio:

Sector weightings
The sector weightings, by value, of the property portfolio as at 31 March 2019 were: Hotels 21.9%; Industrial 18.3%; Residential care homes 16.3%; Car showrooms 13.6%; Student accommodation 10.9%; Leisure 8.7%; Power station 4.4%; Petrol station 4.0%; and Nursery 1.9%.

[gary1966] 13/6/2019 11:36

Maintel Holdings looks interesting. They are a services and support provider for the telecoms industry with an excellent client base. Recurring revenues are at 70%. For years the business has been growing profits and the dividend. Historic P/e and yield of 7 and 7.4% respectively. RSI low and looks as though it is moving off the bottom. May or may not float your boat but thought I would mention.