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[zho] 01/10/2018 10:39

Brucie5,

>>I live very near the Oxford BMW factory .. >>

I'm a couple of miles away, in East Oxford. There must be something in the air here ;-)

[brucie5] 01/10/2018 10:30

MT, what you may learn at our collective cost, is that 'self-serving nonsense' is warning that capital that cannot be efficiently deployed in one country will be quickly moved to another.

As to your last paragraph, the UK has a productivity problem, it is well known. Brexit provides no answer to this, except some think that moving to a lower tax economy may be part of the answer. There is no concensus for this, and was none at the referendum, which was largely won in the working class heartlands on grounds of protest and anti immigration sentiment. When they see you seeking to reduce their services still further, they will not be happy bunnies.

But the big myth about here is that we can magically create markets on the other side of the world to compensate for the ones that our next door. It's like telling someone in Swindon to buy their essential groceries from the really great discounter in Newcastle. You trade the most with those who are closest to you. And as for the huge and growing markets, like China, how come Germany already does 5 times the trade there that we do? Is the EU really holding them back?

In conclusion: what rubbish. There is no reason why we should not thrive in the EU as other northern European states do. You sound like a lazy student who has failed to do their homework whingeing that a change of school would solve all their problems.

[blusteradjuster] 01/10/2018 10:25

The kind of boneheaded zero-sum attitude to trade that Trump has.

Anyone who thinks otherwise needs their head read.




What is a fact is that the UK has a £90bn trade deficit(and growing) with the EU and seen its exports to the EU drop from circa 60% to 40% of our total exports, while the EU has dropped from 36% of global GDP to 16%! Anyone who claims the EU has been good for Britain and British industry needs their heads read.

[mount teide] 01/10/2018 10:08

Brucie5 - 'I'd like an answer, incidentally, to the question of how the car industry is going to thrive under a no deal Brexit, when this will necessarily jeopardise just in time ordering. I live very near the Oxford BMW factory, which is a huge employer and wealth creator. This is a huge and imminent disaster for many people, not to mention their suppliers.'


Having worked in the global supply chain industry for 35 years - I can tell you what the likes of Land Rover / Jaguar and BMW are saying regarding just-in-time deliveries is self serving nonsense.

All they need to do is what much of the rest of the world still does - maintain a very modest stockholding of components for emergency use. What these UK and European based car manufacturers have done over the years is reduce to virtually zero the amount of car components held - relying ever more on road transport operators to time the delivery of supplies to the minute. For what? To save the manufactures a little money from holding an emergency supply of stock - which is peanuts in terms of the overall cost of production.

Its all simply self serving scaremongering from vested interests.

When a container lift-truck ran over and crushed flat a new car being shipped through one of our ports the manufacturer attempted to recover the full circa £15,000 sales cost of the vehicle from us. I refused and said we would be prepared to pay the production cost and transport cost to the port. After nine months of arguing the manufacturer relented and said they were prepared to settle by issuing an invoice for the production cost of the vehicle and 80 mile transport to the port but that the details of the invoice must be kept completely confidential. I agreed - the port received an invoice for £6,300.

What is a fact is that the UK has a £90bn trade deficit(and growing) with the EU and seen its exports to the EU drop from circa 60% to 40% of our total exports, while the EU has dropped from 36% of global GDP to 16%! Anyone who claims the EU has been good for Britain and British industry needs their heads read.

[mr roper] 01/10/2018 09:59

Is Lord Adonis posting on this thread?

[maxk] 01/10/2018 09:52

You need to look at the graph on this site Bruce, full ONS figs, no daily wail stuff. Then tell us a full crash out (no trade at all) will only effect us.

[brucie5] 01/10/2018 09:40

Madness. Total madness. But I have the feeling that if/when we see the social and economic consequences of this, Boris and Farage will be ready with their excuses - and their French summer residences and children's EU twin citizenship passports. Farage of course, will be enjoying his gold plated EU pension which he has refused to decline, and Rees-Mogg will be thriving with his Eire domiciled hedge fund.

Guys, they're having you for breakfast!

[jailbird] 01/10/2018 09:36

I hear from a employee Nissan also looking toshut plant in North for a month from March Brexit date Not sure if announced yet

[brucie5] 01/10/2018 09:30

Here's one for you, Mattos, with your glib assurances about manufacturing. I don't know what it is you make, or where you export it, perhaps you could share, but I doubt it will have the consequences of this baby. And why is it that the same Telegraph readers who scream about the economic follies of Corbyn, so willing to self-harm us all through the ideological idiocy of Brexit?

[brucie5] 01/10/2018 09:22

True, but I think Chequers was advanced as a bargaining tool to see what came back. Not very much, if Salzburg was anything to go by.

Trouble is, the public has been sold several lies which are now beginning to become apparent: 1. that this would be very easy (Liam Fox) 2. that we would be able to 'have our cake and eat it (Boris). 3. that it would result in more money for the exchequer (above). 4 that the Europeans would not dare shutting us out because we are so important to us. When I talk to my Dutch family, who incidentally, are tremendous Anglophiles, ever since WW2, and big traders with the UK, they are particularly incredulous about this. Why would the EU grant exceptional conditions to the UK, which would make it more beneficial for us to trade with them from outside the club? It doesn't make sense. And when Telegraph Kipling quoting would-be colonel blimps insist on saying that it's just a question of holding our nerves they forget that there is likely to be much more pain on our side than on theirs, as we will be cutting ourselves off from our largest market. There is a hardly one part of our economy hthat will not take a hit - and for what? If it was a battle against fascism you could count me in. But it's almost true to say that the opposite is the case here, though I would certainly not accuse all in the Brexit camp of being so. The alt-right, as it has become known, is a dodgy alliance of people of seek to weaponise social tensions, through resurrecting old myths about British exceptionalism, and raising anxieties about immigration, with the general aim of turning the UK into a low tax off shore economy, where billionaires flourish and labour has fewer rights. Look at the last round of US tax cuts to see where this is going. Lion's share of the benefits to the top 1%.


Is this what we really want? Trumpian America 2.00?

The civil unrest will not derive from a second, more nuanced vote on our future, but increasingly, from a polarised and unequal economy, with the young increasingly embittered by the decisions of the old, to close down their future.

And as for southern European youth unemployment - that has never applied to us. There are certainly issues there, and Greece arguably should never have been allowed to join the EU project under its economic circumstances. But let's not be distracted from our reality, which is that we still have high value services and goods, which our European partners have very happy to let us sell to them.


I'd like an answer, incidentally, to the question of how the car industry is going to thrive under a no deal Brexit, when this will necessarily jeopardise just in time ordering. I live very near the Oxford BMW factory, which is a huge employer and wealth creator. This is a huge and imminent disaster for many people, not to mention their suppliers.

Any Brexiteer want to answer that?

[jailbird] 01/10/2018 07:28

Bruice But Chequers does not include Services either

[brucie5] 01/10/2018 07:08

Kipling - a Telegraph voice if ever there was one, sadly urging on the prospect of war in 1914, and losing his son in the process, for which he was not easily forgiven by his daughter.

Canada deal, incidentally, will not save your car industry or haulage, which are dependent on just in time ordering and frictionless trade. And doesn't cover 60% of our economy, which is services.

[mr roper] 30/9/2018 22:20

As I mentioned the other week...the Eu needs a good look in the mirror. It’s own corruption report they refuse to publish as 130bn euros disappears every year unaccounted, they refuse to publish their own report in to meps expenses, the rise of Selmayr. Juncker wiretapping while he was lux pm and the charges mysteriously disappearing as he became top dog in the Eu.
A fair amount of folk want to remain in the Eu and sadly they are pig ignorant of what they want to remain in, much as many folk were ignorant of what leaving meant. The benefit of leaving now is that when eventually we have a referendum to rejoin, someone will have to spell out all the benefits of Eu membership and how everyone will all benefit. Might be tricky as it’s easier to tell everyone how they’ll all be worse off and hopefully scare them into a vote...which didn’t work the first time....

Either way it’ll be fun to watch.

Edit..just have a think about that. Those youth unemployment levels over the last decade and then match it to the fact the Eu won’t publish their own corruption report to show where 130bn euros a year is being siphoned of to. Sickening.

[mroalan] 30/9/2018 22:20

now play nice girls.

[mr roper] 30/9/2018 22:13

There hasn’t been any opportunity for the youth of Europe in the last decade. Their hopes of a future have been destroyed by their completely ineffective leaderships at national and Eu level.
An utter scandal. Ten years later..May 2018..youth unemployment..greece 43%, Spain 33%, Italy 31%, Portugal 20%, France 20%
hxxps://www.statista.com/statistics/266228/youth-unemployment-rate-in-eu-countries/

The next downturn will be seriously ugly.

[captainfatcat] 30/9/2018 22:04

I believe some EU countries will grant citizenship if there is a direct parental link even if it is several generations old.

[gunsofmarscapone] 30/9/2018 21:52

Bloody hell cmakay, if you are sharp enough to be that succesful then good luck to you! Nothing to do with this topic. Particularly if you did it with no family money or public school education.

My brother is an Army Major and loves it, to do certain jobs require you to be a wage earner. Tornado pilot, surgeon, veterinary surgeon, research microbiologist, headteacher, police inspector, Battalion Commander, queens counsel, member of parliament, saturation diver, ESA rocket scientist, Rolls Royce senior design engineer etc etc etc etc.

None of the above would normally retire under 55,even the Tornado pilot can elect to fly up to 55.

Its your decision! Personally I would have been bored if too wealthy at 35 but there you go fella.

I’m prepared to give Brexit a go and spend money in the UK as long as I am not told to ‘grow a pair’.

[mattjos] 30/9/2018 21:47

apols JT .. your thread not the place for this so, will not pursue the matter further here beyond this:

In/Out .. it's clearly still a big issue for the nation for many, many reasons & likely remain so until next March but, we live in a democracy and have had a very rare referendum on the matter.
The vote was Out & the politicians are mandated to deliver what the majority voted for.
I personally still very much hope we get out as soon as possible. It's only the uncertainty which fuels the media gibberish. Once the deed is done the media hype, in their quest for readership, will just be fish'n'chip wrappings & folk will get on with their lives & make it all work.

Actually .. after we leave the EU, can we go back to newspaper for fish'n'chips? :-)

[cmackay] 30/9/2018 21:46

Mr Roper I think the Scottish would be mad to leave the UK in favour of the eu, but perhaps with the new development then it would be fair to offer them the chance of a new independence referendum.

[cmackay] 30/9/2018 21:44

That's a fair point