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[brucie5] 02/10/2018 16:41

Now be nice. I've ticked you up, Fireplace in the interests of intellectual exchange and amity.

Celeritas, top man, whatever your views on the EU. I think I'd rather not know them.
;)

[fireplace22] 02/10/2018 16:38

Cheers, Aleman and Brucie for your replies.
Ceeritas - interesting figures thanks for posting.

[fireplace22] 02/10/2018 16:35

That's a lot of feathers, artificial flowers and hair we import!

[aleman] 02/10/2018 16:34

fireplace22 - I've not done any specific research. I'm sure others will know better.

I have some concerns about electric vehicles from an urban point of view. Small family electrics are heavier than 3-cylinder petrols. I think there could be issues with more wear and tear on roads, higher tyre and brake particulates, streetside ozone, and less crumple/more energy/different fire hazards in accidents. Just think where all that 6mm you wear off tyres and pads goes and what it does to lungs - now increase it 30% for an equivalent electric vehicle. More asthma or less? We're moving into new territory with the ozone and fires. Might be a problem. Might not. As with all technologies government rams down people's throats, the disadvantages don't get covered well until later. Could we get more travel on urban electric scooters and microcars and ban most bigger (electric and other) cars from cities, or central sections of? That might help.

[brucie5] 02/10/2018 16:34

Aleman
2 Oct '18 - 15:52 - 68889 of 68890Buy utilities, defensives, countercyclicals and companies with cash/strong balance sheets.
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Yes, all fair suggestions. Feels a bit like 1999.

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fireplace22
2 Oct '18 - 16:01 - 68890 of 68890
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Aleman How do you see the coming 'electric revolution' and its impact on specific metal demand, notably copper and the coming perceived shortage of oil faring in an environment of falling markets generally? Safe havens or will suffer with most others? tia.
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Good questions. Oil is currently rising, but with macro factors, surely set against it. My feeling is that PMs have been hammered overduly, and will inevitably benefit from any decline in the dollar. Trump ironically, has ballooned the debt, on the basis that he can get away with anything so long as the stock market booms and jobs expand. Where have we heard thaty before? The clown should get back to the casino where he belongs.

[fireplace22] 02/10/2018 16:01

Aleman How do you see the coming 'electric revolution' and its impact on specific metal demand, notably copper and the coming perceived shortage of oil faring in an environment of falling markets generally? Safe havens or will suffer with most others? tia.

[aleman] 02/10/2018 15:52

Brucie5 - I'd suggest avoiding cyclical/debt-driven stocks and companies with big pension deficits and debt. Buy utilities, defensives, countercyclicals and companies with cash/strong balance sheets. I've pulled back a bit from emerging markets (before recent falls) but not entirely. Some might open short positions but I don't short on principle. Some might move to binary trades - where you go long and short of stocks in the same sector. It doesn't matter which way the market goes so long as you pick the relative strengths correctly. Normally, bearish investors would move more to cash and bonds. As previously indicated on this thread, some of us don't like the changes in banking bail-in rules and would avoid putting cash in banks in favour of building societies and post office/national savings/premium bonds. I'm wary of gilts due to central bank bond sales but probably fine if bought at a reasonable prospective yield and held to maturity. I do think interest rates will come down again but I've no idea how far up the Fed might be prepared to push them despite causing all sorts of problems outside the US already - not to mention slowing house sales, reducing restaurant footfall, falling car sales, falling cinema attendance and crashing NFL ticket sales within the US already. When does the Fed wake up? US listed earnings might have been strong so far in 2018 but Q3 has seen some downward revisions and US total post-tax corporate profits growth (including unlisted) is already showing signs of running out of steam in Q2 (+2.1% v +2.4% forecast). They reckon it takes about 18 months for the US to absorb rate changes so this potential topping trend of total corporate profit might still have 6 rate rises to finish absorbing plus another in December looking very likely. Everything was rosy when they started raising but it sure isn't now. Haven't they got the brains to pause a while?

[fireplace22] 02/10/2018 15:21

mark, I thought he generally ignored May, it was a good speech covering most aspects in general terms very patriotic and self ingratiating as you would expect. At the end he invited May to pick up the Lancaster Gate principles and drop chequers. Very mild for Boris.

[maxk] 02/10/2018 15:14

Well, like him or loath him .. Boris stuck it to May at the conference, and the party faithful loved him, standing ovations and all that.

Contrast that to May's speech last night, where she was boo'd.


Squaring circles is hard to do.

[grannyboy] 02/10/2018 14:57

Some fools think there is still centrist parties...not so, you have far left and right, Theresa May is a lefty liberal, the conservative party are no longer conservative, they have taken over where Tony Blair left off..

When people see huge billboards outside construction sites informing the gullable public that the project is being funded by the EU, IT dosn't add. 'BUT IT WAS YOUR MONEY IN THE FIRST PLACE' ...

[brucie5] 02/10/2018 14:55

What are you strategies going forward?

[aleman] 02/10/2018 14:51

I'm firmly in the bear camp. I follow credit cycles. Consumer delinquencies and defaults have been rising for 2 or 3 years. Claimant Count and insolvencies have been rising for a couple of years, too. Now we have interest rate rises on top. Recession looks nailed on to me. Looks like it would have happened with or without Brexit. Credit cycles are like supertankers and this one looks to have been turning towards the rocks for a while. Brexit/Trump/Italy/Argentina/Turkey/Iran are just like a tugs giving it an extra push the wrong way at the moment. I reckon it was going to happen anyway what with record share buybacks and margin trading. Housing markets in Canada and Oz look to have turned. Others are slowing. The frothy peaks were already there to be seen, like JTC has been pointing out with Hong Kong. And a lot of it was already happening before this year's rate rises.

[brucie5] 02/10/2018 14:41

Aleman, thanks, and yes, a welcome relief. What is your sense here? As my counter-indicator, I'm keeping an eye on pms, by which I don't mean, prime ministers. But sooner or later with all that's going on, there will surely be a number of canaries that will start to sing. But I did think the market was toppy a couple of years ago, from which point it just kept going up.

[brucie5] 02/10/2018 14:36

zho
2 Oct '18 - 14:19 - 68878 of 68878
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>>It stated £350million pounds a week 'COULD' be spent on the NHS...>>

It said "let's fund our NHS instead".


The £350 million was a hypothetical figure based on a notional contribution of 1% of GDP. The actual figure was far lower becaue of the budget rebate obtained by Margaret Thatcher - £248 million a week. Of this, a fair amount (roughly 40% from memory) came back in the form of subsidies (e.g. agriculture), aid, university research grants and so on.
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Zho, yes, how right you are, but let's not allow facts to stand in our way. ;)

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fireplace22
2 Oct '18 - 14:18 - 68875 of 68878
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like him or loathe him Boris is in a position whereby he can influence the route this Govt and ultimately the country approaches Brexit.

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1. I loathe him, unfortunately, whereas I used to admire him both as Major of London and as supporter of the Classics.
2. His influence, as I think you'll find when he launches leadership bid 2.00, is much diminished. Outflanked by Rees Mogg on the hard right; and Gove on the inside. And completely despised by the centrists in the party, some of whom simply would not serve under him.

[zho] 02/10/2018 14:35

Aleman - I keep an eye on DOWI:DJT, the Dow Jones transport index. It's currently near its high.

[blusteradjuster] 02/10/2018 14:34

You’d maybe need OCDO and the like mixed in to get a decent pictures Aleman.

[aleman] 02/10/2018 14:32

blusteradjuster - just been checking and the Industrial Transportation Index only has 4 shares in it now - BBA, Clarkson, James Fisher and Royal Mail. Perhaps, it's not the indicator it once was.

[zho] 02/10/2018 14:19

>>It stated £350million pounds a week 'COULD' be spent on the NHS...>>

It said "let's fund our NHS instead".

>>Now we have you so called experts claiming it isn't this figure, and claim it is a much lower figure...>>

The £350 million was a hypothetical figure based on a notional contribution of 1% of GDP. The actual figure was far lower becaue of the budget rebate obtained by Margaret Thatcher - £248 million a week. Of this, a fair amount (roughly 40% from memory (edit: the correct figure is 43.5%)) came back in the form of subsidies (e.g. agriculture), aid, university research grants and so on.

Edit: I checked out those figures. This is from the IFS:

"It is true that the UK currently pays more into the EU budget than the EU spends in the UK – though this only amounted to around £140 million per week (£7 billion) last year, not £350 million per week.
Taking this fact alone, you might conclude the UK could leave the EU, replace all EU spending currently taking place in the UK, and have £7 billion left over for the NHS. The two factors to consider However, two offsetting factors make focussing on this number alone unhelpful and uninformative."

[blusteradjuster] 02/10/2018 14:19

Thanks for the change of subject Aleman - looks dreadful.

[aleman] 02/10/2018 14:18

Industrial Transport Index - often seen as a lead indicator?

[fireplace22] 02/10/2018 14:18

like him or loathe him Boris is in a position whereby he can influence the route this Govt and ultimately the country approaches Brexit.

[fireplace22] 02/10/2018 14:14

Why don't you listen and make up your own mind?