Jtc Share Discussion Threads

[maxk] 28/5/2018 21:13

And “ze var” is still being played out bluster, or are you too stupid to see it?

[hazl] 28/5/2018 20:49

I don't feel like that all blusteradjuster.
Very disingenuous of you to tar us all with the same brush.
I have friends who are German,Canadian and English.

[blusteradjuster] 28/5/2018 19:54

Ever noticed that Brexiteers are obsessed with “ze var!”?

Still trying to stick it to ze germunz 70+ years later.


Constructive? I don’t think so..

[fireplace22] 28/5/2018 19:28

If BRINO is such a fait accompli I can't understand Rees-Moggs complacency with the current negotiating stance. How can he and his fellow euro-sceptics accept the route we are taking without a raised voice after all they initiated the referendum? I hope there is something brewing in the wings for all our sakes.

[mount teide] 28/5/2018 19:10

It will have taken longer for our hugely disingenuous PM to betray the electorate and deliver a far worse than 'no deal' BRINO dressed up as Brexit, than it took to win WW2.

After several weeks of cabinet in-fighting on the EU Customs Union, including a cabinet sub-committee defeat, Theresa May and her close team of EU fanatic civil servants has largely got their way on their Customs Partnership scheme, which means we will be staying in the EU Customs Union in all but name.

Her mantra has developed over the last two years from 'Brexit means Brexit' to ‘Brexit means not quite Brexit’ to "Brexit means BRINO dressed up as Brexit'

The idea is that the UK retains the EU’s Common Tariff Regime and the EU’s regulatory regime, for imports from beyond the EU. Imports would have to be tracked to their destination and those (the great majority) ending up in the UK could claim rebates if UK tariffs are different (hardly worthwhile for many commodities).

To achieve the goal of hassle-free movement into the EU, including Ireland, the UK will almost certainly have to continue to align all of its regulations with the EU. Watch out for the inevitable EU demand to maintain the ECJ as arbiter over trade disputes.

The PM claims that we will be free to negotiate new free-trade agreements across the world, but sticking close to EU regulations will so seriously constrain what is possible, many countries may feel that it is just not worth the bother.

This regime is to last from 2021 until further notice, unless it is replaced by a negotiated free trade agreement and until customs technology is available for friction-free borders. This would be more credible if we were told what technology is involved or if there were any plans to put readily available border technology into operation.

Leave campaign mastermind Dominic Cummings warned last week: “It’s a train wreck. The Government has no credible policy and the whole world knows it. Whitehall’s real preparations are for the continuation of EU law and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. Incredibly, the State has made no preparations to leave and plans to make no preparations to leave — even after 'leaving'.”

The PM is clearly walking into another pre=planned EU ambush in June which will be dressed up in Brussels newspeak afterwards as another huge 'triumph' for all sides - all it is likely to do is condemn Britain to a generation of rancorous civil discord.

[hazl] 28/5/2018 18:55

Mount Teide I agree it's a poor show if they don't honour the people's wishes,which ever side you were on.

[fireplace22] 28/5/2018 18:48

Well J R-M on Andrew Marr yesterday was in full support of TM yet critical of how the negotiations had gone, like you he thinks after offering £40B we should demand a trade deal pronto or retract he also explained that the Irish border problem was the EU's not ours. Odd conversation really, full support for the perpetrator but none for her negotiating stance? He raised some good points - we need to be more bloody minded!

[mount teide] 28/5/2018 18:28

The sad truth is that Mrs May is not up to the job as Prime Minister at a momentous point in our history - we are lumbered with an ultra-cautious leader who cannot think on her feet or speak without notes.

We voted for the Government to carve out a prosperous and independent future. Instead, we have watched the defeated Remainer Establishment mount a ruthless and successful counter-attack.

From a position of strength as a major trading nation, Britain has surrendered on all fronts, caved in to the Brussels bullies working hand in glove with our establishment — and handed over a £39bn of taxpayers cash for the privilege.

We are likely to remain bound by a version of the EU customs union, the single market and the European Court of Justice for many, many years to come. Meanwhile, mass low skilled/low wage immigration continues to run out of control.



A No-Deal Brexit. Our Best Hope by John Longworth - Former DG of the British Chamber of Commerce

'The slogan “No deal is better than a bad deal” was a refrain briefly taken up by the Prime Minister but then dropped. The way things are going, no deal – which means reverting to trading under World Trade Organisation rules governing the vast majority of countries in the world – is our best and last hope.

The need for us to be ready to walk away from the table and abandon our supine efforts to secure a deal with the EU – a deal at any cost – is becoming daily more apparent. The revelation that we are now apparently prepared to remain in the customs after 2021 and until we can find an alternative to a hard border in Ireland is just the latest example of how our defeatist establishment, working hand in glove with Brussels, is humiliating the British people for their temerity in voting for Brexit.

Unbelievably, at this rate it will take longer to leave the EU than it took to defeat the Continental powers in World War II, if indeed we really leave at all.

Week after week, since referendum day, our Sir Humphries in Whitehall and our leaders in Parliament have abjectly capitulated to every demand an arrogant and overweening EU has put forward, while the Eurocrats and some of their willing proxies, like the Irish Taoiseach, poke fun and twist the lion’s tail.

First, they insisted we talk money and the Irish border before any discussions could take place on trade relations. We rolled over.

We never set credible deadlines. We never even tried to pretend that we would walk away to a WTO-type future.

Lacking vision, we gave the EU all the negotiating leverage by insisting that we must have a trade deal with it at any price – a trade deal with an entity that represents exports of just 13 per cent of our GDP, to the detriment of the other 87 per cent.

Even though there is a border now in Ireland for currency, excise duties and VAT, we let the EU make a soft border on the island of Ireland become a huge “problem”;. Legged over again.

Last autumn, in Florence, the Prime Minister gave away the border and agreed to pay up, asking nothing in return. They say “_Non_”, we concede again and again. She gave away security without setting out any demands or achieving “give” from the other side. In the words of the aptly named rock band, Dire Straits, “money for nothing”, and the only “chicks for free” are those coming home to roost…

On defence, they say we cannot participate in the Galileo satellite project even though the UK is the brains behind it and substantially funded it. More humiliation. We should take our our money and develop our own system. How exciting would that be for UK innovation and technical expertise.

The same tactics are being pursued in science and other projects.

Tantamount to extortion.

In negotiations, they have got us wrangling among ourselves, while the Eurocrats are backed by their masters in Berlin and Paris and egged on by our fifth column at home. We, for our part, are too frightened to say boo to a goose. The mantra in Whitehall is that we cannot upset Brussels.

Our politicians argue about the minutiae of an obvious attempt to fudge a customs union with a last-minute Brexit in name only on the cards, like school children on a sixth form project.

Where is the leadership? How much of a laughing stock are our leaders prepared to be?

There has been no talk on trade after two years. There is no clarity we are leaving, still hobbled by the siren customs union.

The EU has offered a solution, a Canada-style deal, but we refuse to talk about it, wanting instead a deep and special relationship, wanting instead not to leave at all.

Now is the time that we must earnestly and openly prepare for a tariff-free, WTO-based future, irrespective of what the EU does and in parallel with any negotiations. A Brexit Minister within the DExEU department should be given the power to demand fortnightly updates on the progress of preparations in each government department for WTO-style arrangements which, if implemented, would lead to no more payments to Brussels after March 2019. The current “strategy̶1; involves being too scared to talk about it, for fear of upsetting the EU.

Most importantly, the UK Government should now declare a concrete stop date for negotiations, after which, if there is no agreement on trade and other arrangements, the UK would adopt WTO rules as its preferred outcome, to be implemented in March 2019.

If WTO is our destination, we would leave the border in Ireland as it is now, soft and sensible. If the Republic of Ireland is fool enough to put a hard border on its side, that is its choice and it bears the consequences. Under WTO, Irish beef will have to compete at world prices. The Irish economy would be the loser, sadly and totally unnecessarily.

By selective and unilateral removal of tariffs we can boost our economy, improve standards of living – especially for the poorest – and reduce production costs, thus increasing productivity. It would give us complete freedom to strike trade deals and to control our borders. A competitive currency would ensure our exports to the EU would continue and import substitution at home would boost UK growth.

Only by this means might the EU realise we are serious. It would get no money, zero. It would go bust.

The chances are that the EU would come running for a quick Canada-style trade deal. And even if it didn’t, it would still constitute a better outcome than the one we are currently heading for. There would be some short-term disruption but after that there would be a massive gain. Far better that, than perpetual servitude.

It is time our leaders got off their knees and time that the establishment put the British people first, rather than pursuing its narrow self interest. It is time to stop this national humiliation of our people.'

[chestnuts] 28/5/2018 15:15

If any one is interested theres a small head and shoulders pattern forming and if it plays out the share price should drop to 23500 ish

[7kiwi] 28/5/2018 14:21

That's great inspiration for understanding the markets!

[jtcod] 28/5/2018 09:40

Song for the day:hTTps://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NGaVUApDVuY

[jtcod] 28/5/2018 09:00

Strawberry picking robotshTTp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/business-44209333/the-strawberry-picking-robots-coming-to-a-farm-near-you

[jtcod] 28/5/2018 07:52

Reading the following article on algorithmic liquidity-risk reminds me of the Buffett observation that “Banks always find new ways to lose money even though the old ways worked just fine”.
In this instance I can’t help thinking there is short term opportunity too, as well as risk.

[mr roper] 27/5/2018 21:38

Max, correct. Deutsche is a mess.

[7kiwi] 27/5/2018 21:07

I remember reading somewhere thst the ECB is running out of bonds of the right quality to buy.

[mr roper] 27/5/2018 13:54

I would guess that the ecb will prolong their qe. European banks have generally sat on their hands for a decade. Deutsche have only just realised they need to downsize and are starting.

[7kiwi] 27/5/2018 13:14

And look at the non-performing loans across Europe:



We have rising interest rates in the US, rising energy prices and the Fed is also shrinking its balance sheet to unwind QE. QE is supposed to end in the Eurozone later this year.

This takes a lot of liquidity out of the market and helps interest rates adjust (upwards) to a more neutral level.

Even if the Fed moves 'gradually', I suspect the market response will be like a piece of elastic. A gradual increase in tension, until something finally snaps.

[7kiwi] 27/5/2018 13:10

Italy's banks are in very poor health. This from 6 months ago:

[mount teide] 27/5/2018 12:29

The US used the 10 years post the financial crash to get their banking industry back to health through restructuring and increased regulation.

The EU has largely sat on its hands and so much of the European banking sector is still in a very weak condition - as evidenced by the market capitalisation of its leading banks compared to US and Chinese banks.

The EU has no one to blame but itself for the present still poor health of much of the European banking sector.

[mount teide] 27/5/2018 12:20

After a decade of major restructuring and increased regulation the US banking sector is in good health, very profitable, with plenty of liquidity and large capital buffers; enabling the industry (unlike in 2007/8) to be much better positioned to take a big hit from borrowers without collapsing.

Elevated asset prices are being gradually tamped down by the Fed - the key word they continually use for this process is "gradual". Nearly every time the Fed puts out a statement in this connection it has the word "gradual" in it - suggesting the intention is for the process to go on at a slow rate for a long time.

The plan is to deflate these elevated asset prices without creating any economic upheaval or sudden collapse, while also avoiding a spike in inflation that could push them to abandon a gradual approach.

The analogy which probably best describes the FED's approach to dealing with the asset price inflation generated by their experimental monetary polices of the last decade, is that of a glider slowly coming down to land - a smooth descent to ever lower altitudes over a long time period.

Will it prove successful? Only time will tell - but compared to 2007/8 they are at least well aware of the scale of the problem and are on the case, and have a banking sector in good health.

[chestnuts] 27/5/2018 12:07

Is this another chip in the glass or is it the start of shatter

[mroalan] 27/5/2018 11:46

mroalan27 May '18 - 09:23 - 206352 of 206356 Edit
0 1 0
" Le Figaro reacts angrily to the French government's decision to take on 35 billion euros of the SNCF’s debts standing at 47 billion euros. The conservative daily says the offer made by Prime Minister Edouard Philippe during talks with the unions on Friday, appeared to improve the chances of ending the rolling strikes staged by the company's workers for nearly two months.

Absorbing the debt has been one of the unions’ key demands.

"That's a huge amount of tax-payers’ money they are about take out from the public treasury to rescue the SNCF from a financial disaster", observes Le Figaro. The publication claims that the offer surely puts the unions in front of their responsibilities. According to Le Figaro, they will have no choice but to accept it to make the state-owned rail transporter more competitive."

So its state owned who have in turn run up the debt to 47 billion,and the state ls looking at writing down the debt by 35 billion,and the difference will be? it will only owe itself 12 billion,see thats funny! mro.