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[chestnuts] 26/5/2018 09:00

Jtc

Buy pre 1947 silver coins no vat no capital gains no income tax as they are coins of the realm, these coins are 50% silver and pre 1920 are 75% and if gold went to say 10000 gold would probably go to 625, the reason for this is Gold and silver always traded at 15/16 to 1 when it was on a bi metal system, and if you go back to 1980 top when gold hit 876.6 silver hit $56.
Silver is $16.5 at the moment and gold 1300 , so the ratio is 79 at the moment so a very good time to buy some old silver coins,

[jtcod] 26/5/2018 08:37

Thanks for the healthy discussion on charting Matt and Chestnuts. It's always good to hear some opposing views too whilst maintaining respect for those views as you have. I don't know whether you guys buy physical gold (or intend too) but I probably will buy physical when the time comes. I believe in silver too and have heard that buying silver coinage avoids capital gains. Does anyone here have any views on a strategy of buying silver coinage?

[mattjos] 25/5/2018 21:36

sorry chestnuts .. nothing personal but, those are much too complicated theories for me .. I prefer to keep it as simple as I possibly can. If I cant chart it and understand on the 'KISS' principle then, it is not for me & I look elsewhere.
Long term, simple and clear charts .. I 'get' them and find I can recognise them ever more quickly & on that basis, I will follow my instincts ... some charts do almost 'scream' at you & those are the ones on which I have been most successful.

for me, charting has always been about reaching the point of 'unconscious-competence', in the same way one can reach the sensation of 'flow' on a motorcycle or a horse .. takes a long, long time to achieve that level but, once gained, I believe it is a skill that can be reliably utilised.

[chestnuts] 25/5/2018 21:36

Matt

I have 2020.5 as a very important junction for gold and gold could go to silly numbers as high as dare i say it $8602

[mattjos] 25/5/2018 21:27

contrary to the wider media rhetoric of Gold falling during a period of rising interest rates since it offers no yield, gold statistically rises during periods of rising interest rates.

I believe that is a). the 'smart money' pumping that rhetoric while they get long gold & b). the 'smart money' recognises that rising rates is usually in response to an inflationary or currency threat & as we climb the staircase of rising rates so, we get ever closer to the inevitable cycle bust .. in both cases, gold is the sensible hedge.

In the current climate of hugely excessive debt, the 'smart money' knows full well that rates simply cannot rise very far before the interest burden will pull down the whole crazy scheme .. since this time around, debt is worse than ever before, I believe the rate at which gold climbs will be relatively fast & the level at which the interest burden causes the next collapse will be comparably lower than before.

I believe a break of $1,350 for Gold will signal an imminent quick move to the $1,500 level.

Lets see how we go .. I have September'ish as the critical juncture

[chestnuts] 25/5/2018 21:21

Matt

wave equality

If you start at 35 wave 1 would have been 841 as gold topped on 21st Jan 1980 length of wave 11.852 yrs
if you start at 42.6 wave length would be 834, and in time 6.87 yrs

Then gold from 876.6 down to 253.6


Then from 253.6 to 1921.6 = 1668 which is double the wave of 834, ( now if you go back to 1792,25 when USA fixed there gold at $19.39 and x it by 86.02 (Martin Armstrongs magic number but its just 3142 days) you get 1668

It then dropped from 1921.6 down to 1045 ( now what i have found out in studing charts is vector lengths repeat them selves 1921.6 - 876,6 = 1045 so yes gold could have bottomed at $1045, but we could revisit but if there was a crash everything could fall including gold and that gap at $639 could get filled

And as far as fib goes they normaly only line up on a 3rd wave when its the longest

And as far as wave equality from $35 to $1921,6 = 1886 now if sq root this = 43.428

43,428 nice number

It took 43.428 yrs from the bottom at $35 to $1921.6

Theres alot more i could type out but this is JTC thread

[mattjos] 25/5/2018 21:15

Last one: ... this is Wave 4 retrace, in smaller analysis.
We've had the 5 stage re-trace and the 5th stage ended on a higher low... since then, we have the green advance line been tested and proven:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[mattjos] 25/5/2018 21:07

accepted chestnuts but, I can only chart here according to what the platform offers & since I believe the ADVFN Java chart platform is still head and shoulders above any other chart package I've tried, I will stick with this and interpret accordingly.
As I said, if ADVN went back to Bretton Woods then, I am quite sure that the value of Wave 1 would be a lot more than 635 points and so we may very well much higher values printed for gold in Wave 5, particularly if the 1.618 & 2.618 multiples eventually apply.
for now though, I look to either 1260 or 1500 & watch it all unfold

[mattjos] 25/5/2018 21:03

Wave 5 so far, has regained the next higher retracement level of circa 1,260 & seems to be building a pattern of higher lows .. the next level to regain is circa 1,500 so, for now, I see support at 1,260 and resistance at 1,500. In that sense chestnuts, you validly argue we are in no-man's land but, it's rare that chart sits for long on critical chart points as so many are watching for them and the market takes positions according to bullish & bearish interpretation either side of that level

[chestnuts] 25/5/2018 20:53

Matt

Gold could be on a 4th wave of the 4th wave coming down.

As far as your fib on the chart, gold started at $19.39 1st April 1792

But in April 1968 gold was $35, but the last fix price was Feb 1973 at $42.6

[mattjos] 25/5/2018 20:50

I should add that, Waves 2 & 4 tend to be complete opposites of one another in their shape & composition, whilst Waves 1 & 5 are of similar shape & composition to each other.
On our chart above, Wave 2 was long and shallow in nature .... so, Wave 3 should have been comparably short and sharp in nature. That is how it got printed.

Wave 1 was short and fast rise so, we should expect this Wave 5 to be similar in nature

[mattjos] 25/5/2018 20:47

Sadly, ADVFN Gold chart does not go all the way back to the date of Bretton Woods, else W1 would show a larger advance but, that aside, we have to work with what we have & see how the well the chart matches (or otherwise) the broad theory of the Eliot Wave theory. In this I am working to Grand Super Cycles and not fractional short term Wave analysis (as I find that much too short a timescale to work reliably).

So, on that chart:

Wave 1 ran up from 215 to 850 .. a move of 635 points in total.
Wave 2 retraced BUT did not form a new low .. so, that meets the EW primary rules.
Wave 3 ran up from 250 to 1900 .. a move of 1,650 points in total

The most common Fibonacci ratios used in the stock markets are:
1 - 1.618 - 2.618 - 4.23 - 6.85 (multiples)
0.14 - 0.25 - 0.38 - 0.5 & 0.618 (ratios)

So, lets examine the relationship between the value of Wave 1 & Wave 3.

1650/635 = 2.598 ..... ok, its not a 'perfect' EW multiple match but, if I plotted the chart on candlesticks and was 'absolute' on my analysis, I reckon we near as damn it get to a multiple of 2.618

So, Wave 3 has a valid relationship to the value of Wave 1, according to EW theory.

So far, the theory holds true to the chart as posted.

Now, Wave 4 ratios fall into the following statistical likelihoods:

15% of Wave 4's retrace 24% - 30%
60% of Wave 4's retrace 30% - 50%
15% of Wave 4's retrace 50% - 62%

On the chart above, we see the Wave 4 retrace was halted, near as damn it, at the 50% level.

Finally, where might the current Wave 5 get to:

EW says, If Wave 3 is greater than 1.62 or extended, then Wave 5 ratios are as
follows:
Wave 5 either = Wave 1 or, Wave 5 = 1.618 x Wave 1 or, Wave 5 = 2.618 x Wave 1

On the chart, Wave 3 WAS greater than 1.62 x the value of Wave 1 so.

Wave 5 is going to be one of the three following values:

Take value of Wave 1 (635 points)

W5 = either 1 x 635 = 635 or, 1.618 x 635 = 1,027 or, 2.618 x 635 = 1,662

Wave 5 started at 1,050 so, destination targets are as follows:
1050 + 635 = 1,685
1050 + 1,027 = 2,077
1050 + 1,662 = 2,712

Right now, I see a rising wedge on the chart with a target of circa 1,650 ... near as damn it, the first of those values

So, I have long ago concluded that Gold will reach minimum 1,650'ish on this wave but, could extend to 2,077 or 2,712 .. all depends what kind of mess we get into.

[mattjos] 25/5/2018 20:20

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[mattjos] 25/5/2018 20:03

I will put up long term gold chart & how I believe EW analysis maps it later as on iPad just now. However, I believe W4 ended 2 years ago and we are now in W5.According to my interpretation, is why I started building a very significant position in AAZ in the 5-10p range. Thus far, that has proven quite successful .. in the same way that I mapped gold to EW theory, I also mapped AAZ on exactly same principle & was quite certain that from 5p it would be at least a 25 bagger. 30% of the way there so far. Waiting is hard but, thus far, it has behaved as if it were reading the theory book itself & so I am persuaded to let it continue to develop. I've not come across a chart like AAZ, with such potential, since I came across WCC in 2009.

[chestnuts] 25/5/2018 19:45

JTC

Gold

Thanks Matt for the chart,
but i think we are in no mans land at the moment, because gold could be on a 4th wave going down notice how the trend is like a stair case common in a bear flagg and gold could easily fall back down to 1045 as go up. And there is a gap at $639ish

[jtcod] 25/5/2018 19:34

Thanks Matt

[mount teide] 25/5/2018 17:09

One of the great Grand Tour rides of all time today from Chris Froome on the 19th stage of the Giro D'italia.

Chris attacked from 80km out up the first of two big Cat 1 climbs and then proceeded to cycle alone to the finish, leaving everyone else at least three minutes behind and the tour leader this morning an unbelievable 42 minutes behind - Chris now leads the race by 40 seconds with just two stages left.

After Chris finished his 10 minute cool down ride on a stationary bike, gave a number of interviews and then collected his stage winners trophy, he was told the overall leader of the race this morning was still coming up the final climb and had at least another 20 minutes to go to the mountain top finish line!

[mattjos] 25/5/2018 16:28

Gold weekly chart looks to me like a reasonably-well defined 2 year rising wedge .. assuming it breaks out higher, gives a $1,650 price target for the pattern confirmation

[mattjos] 25/5/2018 16:26

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[serratia] 25/5/2018 14:13

JTC,
Cables I agree on length. As I understand it cable resistance starts to have an effect when resistance is greater than 5% of the speakers impedance. Resistance is affected by cable length and diameter so if you have to have a long cable go up in diameter. My speakers don't drop below 10 ohms so shouldn't be affected by cable diameter.
Also transparency increases with shorter cable lengths so maybe I could use shorter cables.

[jtcod] 25/5/2018 13:37

It's a little like the ex-smoker being the most critical of all people toward smokers.

[mount teide] 25/5/2018 13:34

JT - :-) - Mentioned some time ago to the online Guardian remoaner echo chamber that the damage caused to Britain at the end of World War II at £120bn is equivalent to £3,620bn today - which puts the 49bn euro 'divorce fee' extortion of the UK in some perspective.

In 1990, following the reunification of Germany, Britain's Conservative Government as a gesture of goodwill waived its rights to any reparations.

Additionally, the damage caused to European countries following World War II was repaired largely thanks to a finance deal with the Americans known as the Marshall plan - incredibly, soft touch Britain only finished paying off these loans to help rebuild Europe in 2006 - 61 years after the end of the war.

[mr roper] 25/5/2018 12:47

JT, you mentioned hydroponic farming some time back. have you had a look at aeroponic farming. I came across it last month and it really caught my interest.

[jtcod] 25/5/2018 12:34

Though a few years old, this piece on Historic Debt Forgiveness is still quite Interesting given current times.MT - I hope you are in a calm mood (if you haven't read it before) as the likely sense of indignation toward certain Euro partners may be too much. :-)hTTps://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11383374/The-biggest-debt-write-offs-in-the-history-of-the-world.html