Jtc Share Discussion Threads

[tewkesbury] 25/5/2018 11:27

Powerhouse Energy (PHE) possible 2000 bagger:


englishlongbow
25 May '18 - 10:49 - 6554 of 6556

Keith Allaun says PHE could be a FTSE 100 company based on their UK rollout plans i.e. at least 300p share price; and they are expecting 2.5x more rollout in the EU, and roll out in other geographies like Australia, Far East, Midddle East, etc.

So in terms of the share price: 300p for the UK + 750p for the EU + more elsewhere, gives an eventual share price well over 1000p (£10) making it a 2000+ bagger from here.

£1000 investment now could be worth £2 million in future. That is a mind boggling return on investment.

[jtcod] 25/5/2018 09:53

Homebase sold for £1 today I see. Retail really has taken a pasting over the last year.

[mount teide] 24/5/2018 18:59

Maudlin has an interesting investment and business MO - he puts his investment money to work with a small group of carefully selected hedge funds and uses his excellent financial services sector contacts to help him provide investment insight (at a fee) to his newsletter subscribers.

I have followed him off and on in an unsubscribed capacity for well over a decade - some of the work he put out in early 2006 played a part in my decision to exit the market completely in late 2007 and fortunately dodge a circa 50% portfolio haircut in 2008 when the markets crashed.

I am more relaxed now with the global economic situation than i was in 2006/7 and think the next recession/downturn/major market correction is probably at least 18 months to two years away - also the fed has stated they would not hesitate to return to QE and reverse the rising interest rate policy in the event of another sharp global economic downturn in order to insulate the US economy from its worst effects.

Additionally, the US banks(unlike most EU banks) post the 2008 crisis have recovered while their European peers are still looking for ways to survive. Last summer, for the first time since the financial crisis, the US Fed did not object to any of the capital plans of 34 banks it reviewed.

Whereas, the European banking industry is still plagued by very high levels of non-performing loans, uncertainty caused by the UK Brexit vote and massive fines - it has a long way to go in order to catch up with the American banks, as evidenced by a comparison of market caps.

JP Morgan is larger than the combined market capitalization of the leading banks in Spain, Germany, France and Italy combined.

Of the top ten global banks by market cap today, four are US banks, four Chinese, one UK (HSBC) and one Australian - a big change from 2007.

[jtcod] 24/5/2018 17:23

ChestnutsLet's talk gold and silver charts.Do you expect a fall or rise from these levels in the short term. I only ask because I heard Jim Rogers say expects a fall-back first.

[jtcod] 24/5/2018 17:21

He's been right twice so far then........then again even a broken clock is right twice. :-)

[chestnuts] 24/5/2018 17:05

JTC

To be fair Maudlin as been a bear for over 20yrs

[zho] 24/5/2018 16:09

>>This Maudlin guy makes me sound positively happy-go-lucky!>>

I think he describes himself as a cautious optimist ;-)

[jtcod] 24/5/2018 16:01

Train Crash PreviewhTTps://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/train-crash-preview

[jtcod] 24/5/2018 15:38

This Maudlin guy makes me sound positively happy-go-lucky! The Credit-Driven Train Crash part 1hTTp://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/credit-driven-train-crash-part-1

[mount teide] 24/5/2018 15:15

To appoint rabid anti-EU lawyer Giuseppe Conte as the new Prime Minister of Italy is clearly a calculated, highly provocative act aimed directly at the unelected EU commission by the election winning eurosceptic parties Movimento 5 Stelle and Lega.

After accepting the President's offer of the PM's job Mr Conte said to waiting journalists that he will be "the defence attorney of Italians".

"The next government will have to start negotiating immediately over the European budget, the asylum rights and the banking union. It's my intention to work hard on this by building alliances and operating to defend the national interest."

It is the first time since World War 2 that Italy has a populist, anti-establishment Government.

Juncker's 'naughty Nation' Brussels torture chamber of economic punishment 'tools' that he likes to boast about to keep smaller Nations in 'line' may have finally met their match.


Who runs the EU? The standard hugely disingenuous EU commission reply is, “The EU’s member states – all 28 of them". But Paul Lever, a former British ambassador to Germany, offers a more pointed answer in his new book 'Berlin Rules', in which he writes, “Modern Germany has shown that politics can achieve what used to require war.”

'Institutionally, the EU has become Germany writ large. The Commission, the European Parliament, European Council, and the European Court of Justice mirror the decentralized structure of Germany itself. The EU’s gospel of “subsidiarity” reflects the division of powers between Germany’s federal government and states (Länder). Germany ensures that Germans fill the leading positions in EU bodies. The EU rules through its institutions, but the German government rules those institutions.....

....Germany has created a system of rules that entrenches its competitive advantage. The single currency rules out devaluation within the eurozone. It also ensures that the euro is worth less than a purely German currency would be.

The EU’s recent Treaty on Fiscal Union – the successor to the Growth and Stability Pact – prescribes binding legal commitments to balanced budgets and modest national debt, backed by supervision and sanctions. This precludes deficit finance to boost growth. And Germany’s insistence that non-wage costs be equivalent throughout the EU is less a device for enhancing Germany’s competitiveness than for reducing others’.

The EU, especially the 19-member eurozone, thus functions as a vast home base for Germany, from which it can launch its assault on foreign markets. And that base is strong. Germany exports to the EU 30% more than it imports from it, and runs one of the world’s largest current-account surpluses.

This is a benign rather than a brutal hegemony. But at its heart lies a massive contradiction. National accounts must balance. A surplus in one part of Europe means a deficit in another. The eurozone was established without a fiscal transfer mechanism to succor members of the family who get into trouble; the European Central Bank is prohibited from acting as lender of last resort to the banking system; and the Commission’s proposal for Eurobonds – collectively guaranteed national bond issues – has foundered on Germany’s objection that it would bear most of the liability.

Germany has been willing to provide emergency finance to debt-strapped eurozone members like Greece on the condition that they “put their houses in order” – cut social spending, sell off state assets, and take other steps to make themselves more competitive. The Germans see no reason to take measures to reduce their own super-competitiveness.

What can be done to achieve a more symmetric adjustment between Europe’s creditors and debtors? Barring a fiscal transfer mechanism, John Maynard Keynes’s 1941 plan for an International Clearing Union might be adapted for the eurozone. Member countries’ central banks would hold their residual euro balances in accounts with a European Clearing Bank. Pressure would be simultaneously placed on creditor and debtor countries to balance their accounts, by charging rising interest rates on persistent imbalances.

An EU clearing union would be a less visible intrusion on German national interests than a fiscal transfer union would be. The essential point, though, is that for the eurozone to work, the strong must be prepared to show solidarity with the weak. Without some mechanism to realize that, the EU will limp from crisis to crisis – probably shedding more members along the way.'

[jtcod] 24/5/2018 15:07

Cheers Serratia Btw when I mentioned in last nights post that shorter cables are better I specifically meant speaker cables. You probably know this anyway but it is more desirable for SQ purposes to go for longer interconnects and shorter speaker cables. It was not until I shortened my speaker cables that I realised how much diffusion was being incurred by having long speaker cables. I had 5m and shortened to 3m btw. Will shorten further when able to.

[serratia] 24/5/2018 14:29

JTC,

As a blues fan that's a great version. There's a board on ADVFN - ROCK run by brahmsnlist which may interest you.

[jtcod] 24/5/2018 13:07

Song for the Day........Buddy Guy upstaging Mick Jagger. :-)hTTps://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yVj8Sh4phzM

[jtcod] 24/5/2018 11:21

Interesting lending trend in the UK for Q1 2018 (see chart 1)hTTps://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/credit-conditions-survey/2018/2018-q1.pdf?la=en&hash=495754B84D9D383D0D2D4B0A37B1313789F784FEThis is the 5th consecutive quarterly fall in unsecured household credit and at 38.7% for the Quarter, it is the largest quarterly fall since records began.My first thought was "well done" to UK banking for being pro-active and pulling back on underwriting standards in the midst of a lending boom. Then I thought "hang-on, when did a banker ever become pro-actively cautious in the midst of a lending boom?"So I got to thinking about other possibilities.Perhaps rising interest rates made it more desirable for banks to go low-risk and sit on more cash? Maybe.Then I remembered yesterday's rumour that Barclays were eyeing up Standard Chartered Bank with a view to bid. I wonder if this rumour may have legs. Back in 1986 Lloyds had done something similar to improve its balance sheet prior to making a successful bid for TSB. This is a substantial lending swing though, so it could be a mix of things. In fact it could point to perhaps 2 UK banks with the same idea. I look forward to seeing the Q2 figures in July.

[jtcod] 24/5/2018 07:33

Turkish interest rates rise 3% to 16.5% to steady the currencyhTTp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44227604

[jtcod] 23/5/2018 22:49

Hi Serratia Sorry for the delayed response I completely missed your post till I looked back through tonight.My experience with speaker cable manufacturers is they all seem to claim the same thing. Their cable is transparent. I think Mit are the only cable manufacturer to back the claim up with tests. Anyway I have tried some pretty expensive speaker cables over the years including the Chord Music but by far the biggest improvement I have experienced was when I had the manufacturer chop 2m from my existing Avid ASC Reference cables. The change was so noticeable that I plan to upgrade my power amp to two mono amps later this year so I can shorten them down to 1m. If you have long runs there is no substitute for ultra thick cables.

[mount teide] 23/5/2018 21:51

US hedge fund manager may have hit the crack pipe a little too hard over the weekend!


Dow to hit 50,000 by 2023? - Market milestone is within reach US hedge fund manager claims - USA Today




'A money manager who invests in undervalued stocks is calling for the bull market to run another three to five years and for the Dow to reach 50,000 before the good times end on Wall Street.

The bullish call may sound like a long shot. The Dow Jones industrial average would need to double from Tuesday’s close of 24,835, which equates to an annual gain of more than 14% if the Dow 50k milestone is hit in five years and around 20% if it takes four years.

But the man behind the optimistic prediction, Charles Lemonides, founder and chief investment officer at ValueWorks, a New York-based money management firm that runs a hedge fund, says investors “should build their portfolios recognizing Dow 50,000 is a real possibility” by 2022 or 2023.

The risk now is investors being out of the market. The risk later, he warns, will be investors piling in at the top in pursuit of gains they never saw coming.'

[maxk] 23/5/2018 20:59

chestnuts
23 May '18 - 19:04 - 66894 of 66904


Theres no way a unqualified policeman should be taking blood.

However, to cut to the chase:

The only reason I can think of for such actions is they are looking for a way out.

Drink, drugs, whatever they can nail to take the blame away from the police car mounting a pavement and injuring bypassers. (big money)

Your friend needs to engage with a lawyer who is experienced at going after the police (and their insurers) The local high street hack will not do.

Try the Law Society for the names of suitably qualified solicitors.

[blusteradjuster] 23/5/2018 20:17

Careful you don’t start foaming at the mouth there..


““Most are principal free professional liars who know exactly what they are doing”

The Tory front-bench? lol!

Its called the BRINO scandal - May and Hammond are working hand in silk glove with the EU fanatics in Whitehall/Treasury to deliver Brexit without it being Brexit.”

[blusteradjuster] 23/5/2018 20:16

Great article JTC.

With the deja vu sensors running hot, it makes me wonder whether bankers are heading blindly into problems or know exactly what is coming but figure that they should continue making hay while they can because someone else will pay for their recklessness anyway.

[jtcod] 23/5/2018 20:12

Yes a talented young musician I agree

[mount teide] 23/5/2018 20:08

“Most are principal free professional liars who know exactly what they are doing”

The Tory front-bench? lol!

Its called the BRINO scandal - May and Hammond are working hand in silk glove with the EU fanatics in Whitehall/Treasury to deliver Brexit without it being Brexit.

[jtcod] 23/5/2018 20:03

Totally agree on both counts Mattjos. People will push it to the limits even if it were a zero interest rate era.Here's further evidence of the same:Banks might not have long to cheer for reg reliefIt has been a decade since Bear Stearns imploded, and bankers are ready to stock up on champagne for the passage of significant legislative changes to the Dodd-Frank Act.But before they uncork those bottles, they should be put on notice that credit signals are not good.Recent data shows that commercial and industrial loans extended are at the highest point they have ever been since the Federal Reserve started tracking the data in the 1940s. Since 2009, corporate debt has been growing faster than consumer debt.And there are additional worrying signs: The leveraged loan market has, for example, doubled in just five years to $1 trillion. This growth comes despite new guidance about better risk management requirements for leveraged loans released by the Fed and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in 2013. In April 2018, covenant-lite, first-lien institutional loans outstanding hit a record high of 77% of that market. Covenant-lite loans typically come with fewer periodic financial performance obligations for the borrower that other loans require. This is a significant rise from 2007 when these types of loans represented about 20% of outstanding leveraged loans in the U.S.When an economic downturn begins, these covenant-lite loans are at higher risk of default than other similar loans because lenders have fewer protections. Not only are banks at risk when they hold these loans on their balance sheets, but so are a wide array of global investors in collateralized loan obligations, which are disproportionately backed by leveraged loans. Unsurprisingly, banks are big investors in CLOs. Additionally, since a court ruled in April that CLOs are exempt from the risk retention rule, which required CLO issuers to retain 5% of the risk on its books, there has been a glut of CLO issuance. Even before this court decision, CLO issuance by the end of 2017 was already at record levels with $120 billion in outstanding CLO issues, higher even than in 2006.On the consumer loan side, the rapidly growing student loan market is of greatest concern. College loan balances now stand at almost $1.5 trillion. The Brookings Institution calculated that by 2023 the default rate could reach 40%. Even if the default rate turns out to be half of that, that would still amount to billions of dollars in losses. Like with other loans, banks are exposed to student debt because they are packaged into securitizations.Another trouble spot is in the auto loan market. While the big lenders in this market are auto financing companies, banks have been entering this market. Moreover, banks invest in auto loan asset-backed securities, in which issuances have been rising. Lenders in the U.S. $1.2T auto loan market are extending terms to borrowers for as long as eight years - 10 years ago the average auto loan maturity was five years. This increases the probability that defaults will rise and that loan recoveries will decrease. Already, auto loan subprime borrowers are defaulting at a higher rate than in 2007.Credit card debt and exposure to it through credit card asset-backed securities should also be monitored carefully by bank risk managers as well as bank supervisors and rating agencies. The number of credit card accounts and credit card debt per borrower has been rising. Serious credit card delinquency rates rose to 1.78% in the first quarter of 2018, up from 1.69% a year earlier. Given that the level of credit card debt is rising, what seem like small losses actually represent millions of dollars.The mortgage market is the only bright spot across all forms of consumer debt. For over a year and a half, mortgage delinquencies have been declining. Delinquencies have also been declining among subprime mortgages. Yet given the high likelihood that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates this year, anyone with a floating-rate mortgage or credit card will start to feel the pinch of higher borrowing costs.I fear that legislators are choosing a terrible moment to lighten up regulations on big banks. No one should think for a moment that the changes to Dodd-Frank are just for well-deserving community banks across the country. Given the current level of corporate and consumer indebtedness, allowing banks to take on more risk could be detrimental to Main Street precisely when employment and GDP levels are finally improving. Historically, what we see every time we reach growing levels of GDP, banks pursue fewer regulations to reduce their auditing, reporting and compliance costs. This frees up cash for banks to engage in riskier lending and capital markets transactions. In order to compete with other banks that are trying to capture more market share, banks let go of their due diligence standards in the chase for higher profits.While the macro economic data are positive, the yield curve, an important market signal, is flatter than it has been in over a decade. Despite slowly improving GDP, there has been a rise in purchases of Treasurys, which has brought down the yield. This is happening because the market is being weighed down by policy uncertainty in terms of a number of government initiatives such as trade tariffs, the direction of the North American Free Trade Agreement and what the true effects of tax reform will be on economic growth. If the yield flattens more or even inverts, this will give rise to concerns that we are starting to get into a recessionary part of the credit cycle.As a result of these market signs, I would encourage bankers to consider buying "cheap and cheerful" bottles of champagne rather than vintage ones. Trouble could be bubbling up just around the corner.hTTps://www.americanbanker.com/opinion/banks-might-not-have-long-to-cheer-for-reg-relief

[mr roper] 23/5/2018 19:51

Thoroughly enjoyed that, jt. Beautiful feel for the instrument. Lovely playing indeed.