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[interceptor2] 23/5/2018 19:44

Apologise for the intrusion on your thread JT, but had to comment on the YouTube video you posted of the street artist performing Wish you Were Here, he played it with so much feeling just like David Gilmour. Judging by your music taste I think you will appreciate the link below, which is a solo piano version of Echoes, sent a shiver up my spine. Enjoy.



BTW, Agree with your opinions Mattjos, at least most investors on this thread are aware of the likelihood of major problems ahead and should be able to protect ourselves to some degree.

[mattjos] 23/5/2018 19:32

At some future point a global debt forgiveness will have to take place .. I can't see any other enduring solution to the problems of debt like there is.The USA stats on auto debt are almost beyond comprehension now .. folk are trading in old for new and having to load the o/s finance into the new purchase package & terms are now extending to 6-7 years. This is insanity.On another point .. fuel costs are really creeping up now. Staff are all commenting on it. Virtually £1.30/l for diesel up here now.Won't be long before we witness the roads getting quieter as we did in 07/08Can't help feeling we continue headlong into the next crisis, seemingly having learnt nothing from the last. Goldfish have longer memories than many

[mattjos] 23/5/2018 19:24

Re. Branco research JTC ... many will argue is not a problem as the era of high rates is gone.I would suggest is simply storing up the next crash & it's getting gradually worse and worse.Thin I mentioned recently that the number of financing emails we get has gone crazy last few years.Lenders will now lend, unsecured, to help companies pay their HMRC invoices, Fgsake!All under the guise of 'helping' you run your business and free up cashflow.If you have genuinely made the profit that warrants the Corporation Tax liability then the cash should be there ... wha5 is actually going on is companies are 'dressing' their accounts for the purposes of keeping existing lenders on board & then can't pay the resultant Corp Tax .. so they borrow more! Madness

[blusteradjuster] 23/5/2018 19:12

The Tory front-bench?

“Most are principal free professional liars who know exactly what they are doing”

[chestnuts] 23/5/2018 19:04

JTC please forgive my intrusion but is there any solicitors reading this,

My freinds daughter was run over by a police car while she was on a pavement , they pinned her to the wall with the vehicle, the young lady is now recovering they smashed her pelvis, for some reason they took a blood sample, and the only reason we know this is they phoned her dad so they could test the sample,
Question i want to know why would the police need to take blood, dont they need permission, and doesnt it have to be done by a medical person.

sorry for O/T

[jtcod] 23/5/2018 19:02

Following on from the previous posts implication of deteriorating bank underwriting quality across the USA, here's some proof. Covenant-Lite lending in 2007 was just 20%. Now its 77%hTTp://www.leveragedloan.com/leveraged-loans-covenant-lite-share-market-hits-record-77/

[jtcod] 23/5/2018 12:44

Even if you guys do not have the time to read the article linked below, it is worth taking a look at the chart that prompted it, from Bianco ResearchhTTps://thefelderreport.com/2018/04/12/why-we-may-be-headed-for-another-minsky-moment/What the chart tells us from a sample of 1,500 S&P companies is this:1) At the end of 2017 14.6% of the companies had an interest expense greater than their 3-year average EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes).2) This figure is significantly higher than pre-burst bubbles in 2000 and 2008.3. Alarmingly, it is also higher than the post-collapse peaks in 2003 and 2011.4. Those peaks were softened by a 5.25% Interest rate reduction after the Dot.com bubble and a 5% Interest rate reduction after the 2008 financial crises. Fed Rates are currently 1.75%, so it is not possible to reduce rates by the same magnitude under similar circumstances.5. This 14.6% Peak is during good-times6. In 2000 the figure was 3.35% and subsequently peaked at 9% and in 2008 it was 5.6% and subsequently peaked at 12.2%. Our starting mark today is 14.6%. How high can it go in a crises? 30%, 35% 40%? Those are the sort of statistics that break banks.7. Despite this, Congress has just voted to loosen the Banking guidelines that were put in place after the last financial crises. Maybe that will put more air in the bubble.If this is representative of debt/servicing capability for lower quality companies across Corporate America then we could even be looking at a sub-prime Corporate debt bubble along the lines of the sub-prime consumer bubble in 2008.At the very least, given that the S&P 1,500 is clearly waving a red flag, I would expect the Fed and Treasury to be formulating a pro-active plan right now in order to address the risk, (though I am not hopeful).

[jtcod] 23/5/2018 11:00

Mr Roper We were sitting outside having a drink in Piazza Navona and this guy turns up and starts playing guitar backed by a tape of simple rhythm guitar. I wasn't really listening at first, then I started to realise this is no ordinary musician. The feel and emotion of his interpretations was exceptional. Really moving at times (no I wasn't drunk!). When I started to really study his technique I realised that unlike normal 'flash' guitarists this guy didn't even repeat the special licks. It was all on the fly and as I say, so musical and emotional. I liked his sound also. He used a small Fender amp. He must have played for an hour and a half in all before moving on. I bought 4 of his CD's and gave him a tip. That was a nice moment from our trip.Anyway I have since found him on YouTubehTTps://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9Mi5mOjDwO4

[mount teide] 23/5/2018 10:37

'and amateur politicians who are more than happy to deliver them with the naivety of a politics student.'

Most are principal free professional liars who know exactly what they are doing - like MEP's they are largely self serving and willing to say whatever the electorate wants to hear to get elected.

Look through the Labour Party manifesto - hundreds of pages and thousands of statements about how they are going to spend ever more of other peoples money - barely a mention (as if they would know!) as to how they are going to help the productive sector actually generate more of it.

The labour front bench (Government side is not much better) are stuffed full of people that have been sucking on the taxpayer teat all their 'working' lives - with a few notable exceptions like Angela Rayner, you'll struggle to find anyone that has ever done a days work in the real world(productive sector).


Most MP's are private or grammar school educated and who once elected immediately feel the need to champion comprehensive schools over all others WHILE quietly sending their own children to the type of schools they attended. With just a few notable exceptions the overwhelming majority of the Guardian's nauseatingly disingenuous senior journalists and columnists do exactly the same.

Stephen Kinnock told his local Labour Party committee during an interview for the position as their next election candidate that he would be sending his daughter to a local comprehensive - shortly after winning the candidature and getting elected as an MP, to the seething fury of some on the Committee who selected him, he changed his mind and sent his daughter to a £32,000 a year private school - more than twice the average take home pay of his electorate.

Do as i say not as i do, sums most of them up.

[serratia] 23/5/2018 10:36

Hi-fi,

I've recently been in e-mail contact with a company called Decware. I've been sceptical re the perceived benefits of speaker cables but some time back I heard my system using a different set of cables and noticed a significant improvement. I had no idea whether it was the cable or the way cables interact with either the amp or the speakers. So, how do I decide in which direction to progress ?
Decware were very helpful and this is the gist of our discussion. No effect re cables/speakers. All amps have characteristics eg let's say an amp emphasises a part of the spectrum. Cables can either elevate or reduce that area. This means a cable will either improve the sound from one amp or reduce the sound quality from another amp even though it's the same cable. Hence you read people saying cable X is great and others disagreeing, it all depends on the amp.
Decware decided that the only way forward was to produce a totally transparent cable. All you hear is what the amp is producing, no cable modifications to the sound. They're sticking with their design even though some customers complain that the sound has deteriorated. The guy has to tell them that it's not the cable that is how your amp really sounds, your previous cable was just masking some of its faults.
They do a 30 day trial and return if you don't like their products but only sell direct and are USA based. The cables aren't expensive in comparison to some out there. I might get a set but don't want the hassle of dealing with customs etc. They rarely come up on UK sites for sale but I'll keep an eye out for anyone selling a set second hand.
I have at last got a rational explanation for cable effects.

[jtcod] 23/5/2018 09:56

I believe that is one of the promises they were elected on. One of the many that have already been compromised prior to taking office. We live in an age where the electorate now vote for the highest bidder without concern for the impossible or the lies.......and amateur politicians who are more than happy to deliver them with the naivety of a politics student. Gawd elp us! :-)

[mr roper] 23/5/2018 09:29

JT, Italy - after 10 years of zero growth this is what it comes to. either way, i see it as lose/lose for the eu and the euro. Wouldn't be surprised to see a parallel currency introduced in Italy at some point over the next 5 years.

[jtcod] 23/5/2018 09:19

How to turn a £109.6m Pension Deficit into a £93.9m surplus: Change from RPI to CPI based assumptions.Dairy Crest 23/05/2018

[mount teide] 23/5/2018 08:35

The global shipping fleet which represents 5% of global oil consumption is currently the last outlet for low cost, high sulphur 'dirty' oil.

New International Maritime Organisation Rules(IMO) effective early 2020 require shipowners to comply with a seven fold reduction in the concentration of sulfur used in their main engine fuels.

Although shipowners have a number of options regarding compliance, the least expensive over the short/medium term is the capex free route of switching over to low sulfur fuels such as gasoil.


The Regulations That Could Push Oil Up To $90 - OilPrice.com today




'The IEA says that by 2020, demand for gasoil will shoot up to 1.74 million b/d, an increase of over 1 mb/d relative to 2018. That will displace the heavy fuel oil that is currently widespread. The IEA says that high-sulfur fuel oil demand will crater from 3.2 mb/d in 2019 to just 1.3 mb/d in 2020.

“We foresee a scramble for middle distillates that will drive crack spreads higher and drag oil prices with it,” Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note.

The investment bank said that Brent crude prices could jump to $90 per barrel, aided by the IMO regulations and the rush to secure compliant fuel. “The last period of severe middle distillate tightness occurred in late-2007/early-2008 and arguably was the critical factor that drove up Brent prices in that period,” Morgan Stanley wrote.

Already, stocks of middle distillates have declined below the five-year average in Europe, the U.S. and Asia. “The additional gasoil needed in 2020 is likely to trigger a spike in diesel prices. In our forecast, we assume an increase of 20 percent to 30 percent in that year,” the IEA said.

The intriguing conclusion from this scenario is that U.S. shale can’t be the solution. The flood of oil coming from the Permian basin is light and sweet, which tends to be transformed into gasoline, and is not suited for the production of middle distillates. Medium and heavy blends are more preferable for the distillates needed for maritime fuels, but those barrels are being held off of the market right now by the OPEC cuts.

“We expect the crude oil market to remain under-supplied and inventories to continue to draw,” the bank said. “This will likely underpin prices.”

[jtcod] 23/5/2018 08:26

mroalanThanks for posting a link to that fascinating Documentary on post war Japan and the 1980's bubble.I would have watched it earlier but I have been away in Rome. Btw I suspect Italy may be taking up more financial columnist inches following the recent change of government. With those guys in control it is unlikely to be dull. :-(

[jtcod] 23/5/2018 06:17

US to ease crisis-era Dodd-Frank banking ruleshTTp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44218808

[mount teide] 22/5/2018 15:37

Copper price up strongly today to $3.15 - this latest move from $3.06 is bullish since it has occurred against a backdrop of the $index appreciating around 6% over the last few weeks (although still remaining in an overall medium term bearish trend).

The price of Brent more than doubling to over $80 since the commodity market cyclical lows of Feb 2016, is also clearly having a significant impact on the price of copper and all industrial commodities.

Energy is a significant input cost in the production of most copper(less so in CAML's case because the ore has already been mined and is lying in situ awaiting heap leaching), and so a rising oil price reduces profit margins for most miners putting upward pressure on the the minimum metal pricing required for future capex investment. Higher energy prices also increase commodity transport costs from the mine to the areas of consumption.

Given the buoyant level of global economic growth, the recent strength in the price of oil could well be pointing to the next leg up in the recovery stage of this new commodity cycle.

[mount teide] 22/5/2018 15:32

Strong global growth and the commodity sector recovery from a brutal 8 year recession that brought most of the global mining and oil industry to its knees to push FTSE beyond 10,000?




'This bull run could catapult the FTSE 100 beyond the 10,000 mark' - Telegraph yesterday

[mr roper] 22/5/2018 13:30

absolutely horrific what's happening in Venezuela. The rot started with Chavez when he removed all the oil folk from PDVSA and stacked it with his cronies. Maduro has continued this to the extent that 1.7m Venezeulans have left their country in the last 12 months. Another Humanitarian catastrophe along the lines of Syria, Burma etc.

Where are the UN? Red Cross?

hxxps://www.washingtonpost.com/news/world/wp/2018/03/02/feature/i-cant-go-back-venezuelans-are-fleeing-their-crisis-torn-country-en-masse/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.6fc1a03f78b6

[mount teide] 22/5/2018 13:24

Venezuela is imploding - a decade of socialist experiment has reduced what was once the richest country in Latin America to a land of rampant corruption, empty supermarket shelves, hyper-inflation and plunging incomes.

latest figures have oil production down below 1.4m b/d, annual inflation running at an eyewatering 14,000% and GDP is expected to fall by double digits for the third straight year.

The average Venezuelan lost 11kg in bodyweight in 2017 - nearly two stone. Over 90% now live below the poverty line. The Venezuelan bolivar has lost 99% of its value in three years, while the government has already raised the minimum wage three times in 2018 - in real terms it equates to just $3.13 per month.

Yet, an ever smiling President Maduro on the campaign trail still displayed more chins than a Chinese telephone directory - so in true socialist style he's obviously not suffering like his 'people'.

The former bus driver's obese appearance and demented rants of 'we're all in this together' were difficult to swallow for most of the electorate who boycotted last weekend's Presidential election - not that it concerned Maduro and his election riggers!

Further US sanctions on the leadership and the Nation's imploding oil industry which still generates 95% percent of its export earnings looks a racing certainty following Maduro's 're-election' - which has confirmed the Nation remains well on track to continue Chavez's political project, of driving Venezuela deeper into a socialist one-party state isolated from the world.

Both Mr McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, have repeatedly declared their huge admiration for Chavez’s Venezuela. Given the chance, they would visit the same madness on Britain. At the weekend, Mr McDonnell recommitted himself to “the overthrow of capitalism” and its replacement with “a socialist society”.

To see what that world would be like, voters need only to look at the tragedy of Venezuela, once a thriving country and the richest in latin America!

[mount teide] 21/5/2018 20:00

Look no further than the commodity sector for what is driving the FTSE 100 to new all-time highs - the FTSE is now up close to 1,000pts since the March 24 low - 14.1% in 8 weeks.

Following the commodity sector 8 year recession and cyclical low set in Feb 2016 the FTSE has risen 37% from 5707 to 7859, thanks largely to its heavy weighting in commodity stocks and a weaker GBP. The size of the contribution from the commodity sector is best gauged by the performance of the FTSE 350 Mining Index, which has risen 197% since Feb 2016 - yet is still some 40% BELOW its previous cyclical high set in 2008-2010.

Best heavyweight performer is specialist copper producer Kaz Minerals, which has risen an astonishing 1089% from 90p to £10.60 in barely two years, yet is still some 58% BELOW its previous cyclical high set in 2008 - $5bn market cap Kaz fell 94.8% peak to trough before bottoming out in Jan 2016.

[the stigologist] 21/5/2018 15:50

This is HUGE ! because it confirms PYC are not just in the B2B market competing with

Certara $850m
Simulations Plus $300m

but also the potentially huge Consumer/B2C market where you are with serious big boys like

Google (Deepmind who Google paid $500m for)

Jeff Bezos/Bill Gates + Big Pharma funded $1 billion+ GRAIL Inc

[the stigologist] 21/5/2018 14:58

PYC have tweeted the news !


re UK Government using AI for Cancer

PYC already had Government contracts in this area 'Precision Medicine for Cancer'

Government specifically mentioned Oxford as a key hub (PYC based at Oxford Science Park)

now PYC tweet the news

[serratia] 21/5/2018 11:04

Thank you for the prompt and detailed reply MT.

[hottingup] 21/5/2018 10:05

Amerisur (AMER)

Fully funder 14 well onshore drilling program starting next month.
Zero debt and £40m cash in the bank.
Already producing oil and cash flow positive.