Jtc Share Discussion Threads

[mr roper] 29/5/2018 16:57

hxxps://capx.co/the-eu-has-already-lost-the-uk-it-could-lose-italy-too/

Pretty good article. Most alarming how the rate of the eu’s share of the world economy is shrinking. Now down to approx 16-17%

[maxk] 29/5/2018 16:20

They had one advantage mk, access to money, not quite as good as inheriting a pile, but not to be sniffed at.

[molatovkid] 29/5/2018 16:01

Matt, I can see where you are coming from but I'm not sure that extreme inherited wealth is that widespread is it? The many have always had to work, just the way it is. It is much easier to just be satisfied with your lot in life, go to work and pick up your pay cheque than it is to go it alone, self-employed and with the risks that entails. Many, many people just don't have it in 'em and are therefore ideal workers.

Some of the worlds richest names started with not a lot, I am thinking of; Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bozos, Steve Jobs....

On the other hand; Saudi royals, Donald Trump, banking families, I agree....born with the silver spoon in their mouths and where holding onto their capital is their main pre-occupation

[lr2] 29/5/2018 15:59

Oligarchs.

[molatovkid] 29/5/2018 15:53

what do you call 'rich' these days?

[mroalan] 29/5/2018 15:52

very few people got rich honestly.

[matt] 29/5/2018 15:32

The other societal problem that is almost the opposite to debt, that of extreme inherited wealth that means the many work for the few who themselves don't need to personally work since their capital generates sufficient income/growth. The rich get richer through nothing but luck of birth. The greatest equaliser would be the mass taxation of large inheritance countered by the relaxation of income tax. Thus promoting effort, earning and spending whilst ensuring excess accumulation would benefit all.

[blusteradjuster] 29/5/2018 14:35

What about Irish income-per-capita? Much of that GDP never goes near Irish paypackets.

Household income per capita has a long way to recover there post-crash.

It is already well-up on the post-crash low in the U.K.

[mr roper] 29/5/2018 14:23

Mt, the bailout was to indirectly save German banks, commerzbank, a fair few of the landesbanken and Deutsche had massive exposure to Irish debt. Hence the pressure was put on by the Eu.

[mount teide] 29/5/2018 14:18

The EU's two mossack fenseca on steroids tax havens Luxembourg(home to more than 240 multinationals paying an average of 1% in corporation tax) and fast rising Ireland are predictably the two European Nations with by far the highest GDP per capita.

Ireland's growth in GDP per capita since the financial crisis is astonishing - 15th in the World in 2009 at $42,000, it has since moved up to 5th with $73,000.

The UK was 29th in 2009 with $36,000 and has since moved up just 3 places to 26th with $43,000.

Aiding and abetting tax evaders is clearly not only good for business but also good at rapidly lifting GDP per capita.

It seems the UK tax payer who bailed out the Irish banks in 2008/9 to save the Irish economy from total implosion continue to get the rough end of the 'benefits' of EU membership.

[blusteradjuster] 29/5/2018 14:17

Mr R,

Correlation yes, but causation?

We’ve become richer over the last 45 years and richer nations grow less quickly (low-hanging fruit are in more plentiful supply for poor nations).

In theory urbanisation is good for productivity and I believe we have urbanised in that time.



I said population growth boosts total GDP (aka GDP growth) even if GDP-per-capita remains the same. It isn’t the only way to boost GDP but it’s one of the major contributors.

For example, US population growth has averaged 1.25% per annum since 1970, in Germany that figure is about 0.25%. We could expect US GDP growth 1% higher than that in Germany without the average Hank/Hans benefitting.


That GDP-per-capita growth is falling might have helped usher in Trump, Brexit, 5-Star but the populists have no cure for diminishing returns only snake oil and a thirst for power.

[7kiwi] 29/5/2018 13:44

What matters to most people's financial wellbeing is GDP per capita, not total GDP.

This has been stagnating across much of the West for at least a decade.

This is one of the reasons for Brexit, Trump and 5 star in Italy.

The reasons for this are many.

Yes, restrictive Labour laws in some countries.

But the constraints of the Euro which is valued far too high for Southern Europe is the main issue for them.

Uncontrolled migration of unskilled workers also plays a part at the lower end of the wage scale. And of course leads to higher benefit payments such as housing benefit.

[mr roper] 29/5/2018 13:34

Deutsche bank down through the 10euro levels. Most likely due to their large holding of Italian debt

[mr roper] 29/5/2018 13:32

Italian volatility spiking

[mr roper] 29/5/2018 13:25

Would agree, jtc. It’s pretty simplistic to say add people equals gdp growth.

How long until the global debt amnesty? Surely debt is the greatest weapon of mass destruction man has created yet?

[jtcod] 29/5/2018 13:22

The constraints of private sector debt levels (household and corporate) should not be underestimated here too (with regard to GDP growth. Population growth can expand GDP but there are limits when debt levels hit the buffers.

[mr roper] 29/5/2018 12:55

Uk pop growth
1970 - 56m
2004 - 60m
2018 - 65m

GDP growth slowing in the last 15 years compared to the previous 30 odd. The law of diminishing returns. More people, less productive.

[blusteradjuster] 29/5/2018 12:36

German, French and US GDP-per-capita has grown by similar amounts (more than doubled) since 1970.

In that time, German population has grown 13%, French 47% and US 81%.

US total GDP growth has outstripped that in France & Germany because of its higher rate of population growth.

Population is a factor of total GDP - so the best way to achieve growth in the U.K. is to increase the population.


Cue much cognitive dissonance amongst the anti-immigration, “U.K. is full” crowd.

[mr roper] 29/5/2018 12:35

Very good Italian commentator on the current state of Italy.

[jtcod] 29/5/2018 12:30

Cost to insure Italy debt against default ratchets higherhTTps://www.ft.com/content/3f323e16-631a-11e8-90c2-9563a0613e56

[blusteradjuster] 29/5/2018 12:14

I would mention:

- Total GDP is affected by population.
- GDP growth is naturally lower/higher for richer/poorer economies.
- Geographically the U.K. sits next to Europe - that can’t be changed and it DOES matter.


I’m no great fan of the EU but am prepared to keep it real unlike you zealots.

[mount teide] 29/5/2018 12:09

'They might want to check where the U.K. sits on the globe..'

As a veteran of 7 round the world voyages that's an easy question to answer - considering the appalling relative growth performance against all other global economies of the high cost, protection racket EU single market the UK has been shackled to for over 40 years - many of us are are more interested in where the UK will sit - post a clean Brexit - in the global economy in 20 years time.