Journeo Share Discussion Threads

[redartbmud] 15/7/2024 12:04

APAD

You are in danger of manipulating the shre price at that rate.
Iff you let it come down a tad more by natural attrition, I might be inclined to buy a starter position.

red

[apad] 15/7/2024 11:45

Interesting about the sales, AdamB.
I have followed it down this morning and have bought 3 times.
It seems that whenever there are a few buys a sell seems to follow. Subjective, can''t be sure.
apad

[adamb1978] 15/7/2024 10:15

I had another look back at the outlook statement at the end of March and it was upbeat, despite the CEO being quite conservative.

Then we also had the NED buying at 250p in early June, which is unlikely to have happened if he'd been hearing that they were about to put out a profits warning (IMO, director buys say more about whether there is any non public imminent downside, rather than judge of upside).

There was a RNS in late May that a couple 'Robert & Virginia Millington' had sold down a >7% position to c.5.5% so perhaps they're dripping more into the market?

So whilst the share price fall is unnerving, I'm not inclined to take any action. Would be nice to see a recovery before the close...

[chester9] 15/7/2024 10:06

Director buys indicate this may be more about loosening shareholders stop losses

[qs99] 15/7/2024 10:01

Morning all

Does look as though it has broken some kind of line on the downside though? Worrying?

DYOR

[nchanning] 15/7/2024 10:00

There could have been a few contract delays with public bodies due to the election , as happened to Tracsis but don't think this would have any effect whatsoever on the value of the business long term . The long term drivers of increased public spending on modernising the transport network are still intact . Not a chance in hell of a Labour government abandoning these plans

[sinzu] 13/7/2024 11:07

It's really funny as soon as the share price shows a little weakness, the doomsayers come out. Market makers taking advantage of weak sentiment and trading volumes.

[sinzu] 13/7/2024 11:05

Recent director purchases suggest growth forecasts to meet or exceed targets.

[apad] 12/7/2024 20:52

Good discussion on Journeo, thanks folks.
I am happy to buy a few more this month.
I have a note of news on the first August.
apad
BTW amusing to think that if I am right the MCap of £38 and the Revenue of £46 is saying I'm wrong 😊

[serratia] 12/7/2024 18:20

Mentioned at a company visit earlier this year.

[apad] 12/7/2024 17:49

Blimey, serratia, well done, do you have a reference?
apad

[serratia] 12/7/2024 17:41

The original US subway contract was given to a non UK competitor. When it became clear they couldn't do the job Journeo were brought in. The contact was for part of the subway. Who will get the next part is unknown.

[apad] 12/7/2024 17:36

Cavendish is forecasting £48m revenue, which I think would be stunning and change the metrics from Tom's previous analyses, which I think are valid.
In particular ROE, ROA and Operating Margin move into growth stock territory.
apad

[apad] 12/7/2024 17:19

I agree Adam. I also searched on Subway and Kawasaki 😊
The big increase in revenue does muddy the metrics if it doesn't continue from somewhere between 21 and 46!
Watch this weakness is my watchword.
apad

[apad] 12/7/2024 16:56

Thanks Tom.

This was posted
"JNEO - I really like the business, just a little nervous of them being able to fill the hole of the large Infotec US subway contract that transformed last years results."
Is it something I missed or is it just that the (big) contract is complete and we are waiting to see what other contracts Infotec can acquire. I presume so.
apad

[adamb1978] 12/7/2024 14:39

Thanks for the post Tom. I'm planning to review my figures again at the weekend but will look into the point you mention.

ALso need to consider what is priced into the shares. They're currently trading at just 10.5x Dec-24 PE despite, based on those figures, EPS growing 14%.

I've never viewed this as something which would be hyper growth but at the moment its being priced for pretty much no growth which doesnt feel right

[74tom] 12/7/2024 12:21

@APAD, I posted quite a lot of detail back in early April having analysed the numbers and was bearish at 270p based on the below;

"Digging further into the segmental reporting, operating profit for fleet & passenger systems in FY22 was £1.43m, in FY23 this more than halved to £698k. This meant that organic JNEO operating margin dropped from 6.77% in FY22 to 2.75% in FY23.

The trend is worse if you look at the half year reporting for fleet & passenger systems;

H122 revenue £8.87m, operating profit £449k, operating margin 5.1%
H222 revenue £12.24m, operating profit £981k, operating margin 8%
H123 revenue £12.5m, operating profit £513k, operating margin 4.1%
H223 revenue £12.8m, operating profit £185k, operating margin 1.4%

Passenger systems actually reported an operating loss of £45k in H223, vs a £410k H2 profit the year before...

Infotec saved the day contributing operating profit of £3.697m, and MultiQ £153k.

Cavendish forecasts in March 23 were for PAT of £2.8m, their reported PAT figure was £2.97m, so they beat this forecast by just £170k, with ~£130k of this attributable to MultiQ, so overall organic JNEO + Infotec were in line, and as the above info shows, organic JNEO was some £700k lower than prior year, despite the 20% top line growth."

I'm therefore not surprised to see the break below the 200DMA, especially given the performance over at Tracsis & lack of announcements here. The trading update in early August will almost certainly try to paint a positive picture, however I'll be surprised if it's better than in line.

[apad] 01/7/2024 12:50

Been going through my (peculiar) metrics and JNEO looks seriously undervalued. It's grouped with companies that have difficulty growing profits and it doesn't. Also new markets and new products.
What am I missing?
apad

[vfast] 27/6/2024 17:02

Nice to see interest from another company.

Hopefully we will see a positive run up to the interim results and or trading update.

[adamb1978] 27/6/2024 13:58

Charles Stanley dont have many funds and from a quick look its not obvious that JNEO would fit into any of them. Would this be one of their wealth management clients? If so though, it would be reported as that client rather than Charles Stanley though


Separately, looking at one of their funds, the main holdings of that fund are a bunch of other funds...so fees layered on fees. The asset management industry is extremele poor for investors

[babbler] 27/6/2024 13:46

Nice. Charles Stanley taken over 5% today.

[vfast] 17/6/2024 12:33

Looks like it is within its trading range of 240p to 280p.

Oversold IMO!

[eeza] 17/6/2024 10:51

Looks like someone heading for the exit.