Journeo Share Discussion Threads

[eeza] 12/2/2024 13:40

Downing (DSM) are winding down and selling all their holdings.

[dealit] 12/2/2024 13:30

Downing are an Investment Company and will operate a sell trigger. I would think IMHO Journeo will have done well for Downing.

[madmix] 12/2/2024 13:06

I'd suggest that since 26th January, Downing have continued to offload their remaining 415,000 shares.

With no institutional buyer on the other side of the book, coupled with a few Private Investors selling, the price fell back last week. With stop losses getting hit and people wondering if "someone knows something", this caused a bit of a late Friday afternoon panic.

This is, after all, a micro-cap with a NMS of 1,000 shares.

The good news is that Downing will almost certainly be finished in the near future, having held over 10% of the company last summer.

[chester9] 12/2/2024 11:54

It could be as simple as they got wind of trading statement and exited to lock in profits. Journeo has been on a strong run. Not that anybody talks loosely :)

[swiss paul] 12/2/2024 11:48

But still no idea about the recent fall. Either someone knows something more than the company - or they are kicking themselves.

[this_is_me] 12/2/2024 09:25

Thanks, I can still buy back those I sold cheaper and I might well do so.

[adamb1978] 12/2/2024 08:43

2024 expectations also look very light.

£48m revenue though JNEO did £24.2m in H2 2023
£4.4m PBT though JNEO did £2.1m in H2 2023

[adamb1978] 12/2/2024 08:39

Hi This Is Me

I take £3.9m PBT, which they've confirmed this morning with the in-line comment, tax it at 15% (though they haven't paid much/any tax before due to stored up tax losses) and then divided by 16.7m diluted shares.

the tax thing is difficult to judge but they had £3.8m unuitliised losses at end of 2022.

Market expectations were 20.6p EPS

Adam

[madmix] 12/2/2024 08:39

From Cavendish : 2023 eps estimate is 20.6p

Forecast for 2024 : 23.1p

[this_is_me] 12/2/2024 08:33

Adam, 20p eps would be a good figure for 2023. Where do you get that from? I took some profits but maybe I am too cautious.

[adamb1978] 12/2/2024 08:17

Said it before but think there is a very good chance of a £10+ share price here within 3-4 years.

£70m revenue would be hit in 2027 with just over 10% organic revenue growth
Acquire £30m revenue for say £20m - £25m based on a similar multiple to JNEO today. They should be able to finance that without raising equity and keeping leverage <1x EBITDA.

Gets you to £100m, and operating leverage should mean they could comfortably make 15% EBIT margins, which drives EPS of 70p-75p.

and if they deliver the above, I'd say a PE of closer to 20x would be justifiable, though 13x-15x hits 1000p share price

[pyemckay] 12/2/2024 08:16

Nothing to worry about here.

“The Company has continued to see continued momentum…̷0;”.

[adamb1978] 12/2/2024 08:14

FY23E trading update - All aboard the Journeo express Journeo has released a positive year-end trading statement for the period ending 31 December 2023 and results are in-line with the recently upgraded market expectations. Revenue increased 118% to £46m (FY22A: £21m), driven by 20% organic growth to £25m in the existing Fleet and Passenger divisions and a £21m contribution from the Infotec and MultiQ acquisitions. Based on this, it is evident that the Infotec business has been performing particularly well following the installation of a third assembly line at the manufacturing facility. We believe that this has allowed for a more rapid recognition of trade receivables for the large NY train contract, and has pushed the year-end cash figure up to £8.1m (FY22A: £0.5m) compared to our expectations of £4.7m. Journeo created a strong platform in 2023 to drive future growth: R&D continued at pace to create market-leading solutions, the Infotec acquisition gave a commanding opportunity to reach new customers in the rail industry, and the MultiQ acquisition gave a greater foothold in Europe to expand in new markets. Journeo looks compelling on an FY24E Adj P/E of 10.8x vs peers on 16.5x, with further upside being seen if cash balances are deployed on additional organic or acquisition opportunities leading to earnings accretion.

[hydrus] 12/2/2024 08:13

£8.3m cash at year end vs £4.7m expectations. Loads of room for acquisitions and they seem very good at those.

[rimau1] 12/2/2024 08:12

There were a lot of incorrect posts this morning, pre coffee or hungover!!! Results might be inline but i think its a net cash beat and i topped up on the bell. Should be back testing £3 resistance IMO

[pyemckay] 12/2/2024 08:08

eeza- any chance you can give us a flavour of the note from cavendish?

[adamb1978] 12/2/2024 07:57

Hi This Is Me

Can you help me understand your high rating comment? Even looking backwards, it looks like its done around 20p EPS in 2023.

Adam

[melody9999] 12/2/2024 07:56

On a 12 month rolling PE of 10.8 and PEG 0.8 according to Stocko so not expensive at all given the growth. Organic growth of 20% not to be sniffed at combined with great acquisition performance. Cash position much stronger than Cavendish forecast of £4.7M.

[eeza] 12/2/2024 07:49

New (Morning) note out from Cavendish.

2024E adj PE = 10.8

[bazzer1000] 12/2/2024 07:43

Surely the existing business has grown by £4m. And the acquisitions have added another £21m making the total £46m.

This is supported by this statement:-

'The Company has continued to see continued momentum in both Fleet Systems and Passenger Systems which together delivered 20% organic growth in revenue to £25m (2022: £21m) and an order intake growth of 11% to £30m (2022: £27m).'

[this_is_me] 12/2/2024 07:42

I sold half of mine in the middle of last week. The firm is doing very well but is on a high rating. there is nothing in the update that would push the rating higher in the short term although it certainly looks like it will continue to progress in the long term.

[bomber13] 12/2/2024 07:41

For a market cap of barely £22m , you get £46m of turnover , organic growth of 20% , a £30m order book , excellent management and £8m of cash , so what is not to like ?

[babbler] 12/2/2024 07:40

Which brings us back to...Hence the acquisitions. Get them established then close the legacy stuff.

[jm65] 12/2/2024 07:28

On the one hand yes, on the other does it point to no organic growth in the existing business?

[babbler] 12/2/2024 07:26

Isn't that the point of acquisitions? Surely that shows managment are doing their job....