Journeo Share Discussion Threads

[nchanning] 22/4/2024 06:28

Missing the usual ' this was included in management expectations for the year '

[loglorry1] 08/4/2024 08:48

The problem with fund managers is two-fold. They are not motivated by excess returns as much as by funds under management. Therefore, they quite rightly optimise accordingly. Some like Mills have a lot of skin in the game so that makes a bit more sense. The UK market though is getting killed simply because cash is getting sucked out of it. Fundsmith have a decent track record and are fairly low cost and make sensible decisions. I think there is a case to hold there especially if you don't like big draw downs when markets puke. The other point is the performance drag of 1-2% is huge and likely to negated any stock picking advantage they have.

One other point worth making. It's as much about tax wrapping and keeping comms and other fees low as it is about stock picking. The former you can definitely do a lot about the latter much less so. So many hot shot PIs think that paying 8%+ funding to IG, and leverage up, is worth it when they can just put £20K in an ISA and have all the tax wrapping with very low transaction fees. They obviously love the leverage but as soon as their positions puke they get flushed out. If they do do well then they just gear up even more and get puked out later.

This is how PLUS works and will always work.

[johndoe23] 08/4/2024 08:37

I would back most small PI's over any of these so called star fund managers

[apad] 07/4/2024 10:21

Amused to see that Justin Waite has set up his own subscription site. So, looks like he was sacked.

The other woman (😊) on Downing that is equally good, thebears1.
Rosemary Banyard is the other woman.

apad

[thebears1] 07/4/2024 07:38

Yes Judith Mackenzie of Downing is very good Generally the people PH speaks to are worth listening to much more than him. He just keeps the conversation flowing and you make your own mind up.

[apad] 06/4/2024 11:59

Posted this elsewhere, might be of interest.

"There's an aspect of self-interest to all the sites.
Neary is now a regular contributor on VOX and he is very balanced. Waite is (was?) awfull. Hill is mixed.
The interviews with fund managers are free from VOX client company bias. Interviews with the 2 women from Downing are stunning.
It is up to us to judge.
Scott on Stocko gets very enthusiastic but admits his failures and warns that it is not advice.
I was impressed by the variety of types of interview on VOX, the tools and the access to public information. All in one place.

For deep analysis of companies Beddard is a standout.
www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/shares-future-company-makes-my-top-10-ii531283"

apad

[sharw] 06/4/2024 09:29

Also in the interest of balance bear in mind that when PH talks with fund managers the list of companies is agreed in advance.

Now make your own minds up listening carefully to what Paul and Gervais say here:



At the time Premier Miton held 8.348452% of Saietta

[chester9] 06/4/2024 07:57

In the interest of balance though for him the interviews with fund managers are often very good and full of insights. I guess it's a case of listening carefully.

[chester9] 06/4/2024 07:34

I understand it's paid content for Vox in return they raise the profile of these companies. They blend in these shares when talking to city experts. Gervais Williams hardly responded when Paul Hill raised at last meeting right at the very end. Paul pushed to end of decline which does not do him or Vox any good reputationaly .

[eeza] 05/4/2024 16:41

Video - Paul Hill & Richard Crow (aka CR)


JNEO at 37.30 to 41.40mins

[davr0s] 05/4/2024 10:19

Yes by lowering the price each day.... (I'm long btw so was just an observation as little unusual to have so many down days in a row)

[eeza] 05/4/2024 10:09

"Seems to be no interest here at the moment".

Well someone is interested enough to take the sellers' shares

[davr0s] 05/4/2024 10:05

On track for 6down days in a row lol. Seems to be no interest here at the moment

[eeza] 03/4/2024 16:23

Downing DSM) released their fact sheet on 2 April, and they still have 2.96% holding, so we have a different seller.

[hydrus] 02/4/2024 14:31

Look forward to it 74Tom - always good to have the investment case tested and you are doing a fine job at pointing out risks.

[74tom] 02/4/2024 14:05

@Melody, it was a great deal for shareholders, there is no doubt about that. I just think that particular deal is now fully priced in given the move from 105p to 270p. On your second point, yes of course you have to believe in the future performance, but surely this belief has to be grounded in most recent trading? You want to see YoY growth in PBT, not the annual declines seen in passenger & fleet systems in FY23.

Thanks @hydrus, yours is a very balanced post. Worth noting that gross margins also decreased for fleet & passenger in the prior year too, so management have a bit to prove with the forecast 19% PBT improvement. On the FD share purchase, a £25k buy is always welcome, however I think you have to look at the bonuses declared in the annual report to judge it on merit. The FD received a FY23 bonus of £93411, which was more than triple the prior year amount. The cynic in me asks whether this bonus was grossed up to be reinvested in shares :)

I'd agree that it's hard to argue that JNEO is expensive right now, however let's paint a fictional FY24 scenario where passenger + fleet operating profit recovers slightly to £1m but infotec drops back to £2m and MultiQ adds £250k. Based on 25% tax, PAT would be £2.4m and EPS just shy of 15p. I'd say that's a 30% probability right now, there will be much more clarity come the half year results.

Will return then.

[hydrus] 02/4/2024 12:09

Some good points 74Tom. I think it is obvious that the NY subway contract was unusually large for Infotec and might not be repeated (hence the seemingly low price paid for the business) but there are further opportunities to expand that particular contract as discussed here previously. The importance of the efficiencies gained through consolidation of manufacturing bases plus expanding the customer base can’t be assessed through a historic financial analysis of course and I think they are the main reasons for the purchase.
Gross margin dropped in 2023 but is expected to increase again in 2024, which is why PBT is expected to increase 19% with revenues only increasing 4% in 2024.
I also think management have integrity and I think the FD buying shares at an ATH suggests they are confident in how things are going to pan out.
I hold ¾ of the shares I originally purchased (having doubled my average purchase I trimmed my position) and I expect the business to progress well. One has to take into account that the business will always be a bit lumpy because of the type of contracts they win but they seem to be very good at winning those so the trend is in the right direction.
Looking at the cash pile and the market cap it is very hard to argue that JNEO shares are expensive. Possibly fairly valued until we see how things pan out this year I guess.

[cockerhoop] 02/4/2024 10:27

74tom,

My understanding is that the deal to buy Infotec was actually agreed in 2019 but only consummated in 2023. (ie the agreement preceded the US subway order etc). Which does explain the lowly price paid.

That is not to undermine your point that the performance at Infotec is potentially unsustainable - i'd imagine JNEO management expect other parts of the business to improve after a poor year in FY23 - especially if further US subway orders are not forthcoming for Infotec.

[74tom] 02/4/2024 10:17

Now to counter to obvious riposte re. Infotec performance being fantastic, my cynical question is this; why would IGL sell to JNEO for £8.7m (less cash held by IGL of £3m) in Dec 22 if the FY23 operating profit of £3.7m is in any way sustainable? Surely common sense would tell you that you don't sell a business for just over 2x operating profit / 1.5x EV/EBITDA?