Johnston Press Share Discussion Threads

[mister md] 17/1/2017 13:33

further RNS - Crystal Amber up to 20% now

[nick rubens] 17/1/2017 10:40

Todays confirmation RNS

"The Disposal also reduces our net debt, putting us on a stronger financial footing."

Hoping next news informs us of buying back bonds on the market or negotiated with some bond holders. This is what the market would want I reckon.

[extrader] 17/1/2017 06:10

Hi netcurtains,

Yes, JPR is probably in top ten now, with maybe 1 to 2 % of NAV. But with roughly 30% of NAV in HUR, you can see why their compliance officer would be pushing CA to offload some of its HUR, however much they may like it.

Helps explain some of the (lack of ) HUR price movements , to me at least !

Sorry for the O/T, but still 'out of hours'.

ATB

[netcurtains] 16/1/2017 22:14

...agreed - but you get my point - its not just a wild punt - its probably in their TOP TEN.

[extrader] 16/1/2017 21:33

Hi netcurtains,

CA's holding of Sheps (its # 10 holding by value) as at Dec 2016 was worth about £ 2.3 M, so likely about as much as its latest JPR holding.

To put things in perspective, CA's stake in HUR is worth about £ 75M , or 30+ times.

E&OE

ATB

[netcurtains] 16/1/2017 11:36

you would think 18.5% of Johnston Press would be bigger than 1.2% of Shepard Neane. I'd say Johnston Press is now in the top ten investments of amber crystal. Much , i suspect, of AC's 2017 profits will depend on how well JPR does..

[extrader] 15/1/2017 20:39

Hi brando69,

Google is your friend : try crystalamber.com/about/majorholdings

ATB
Fishing teacher in my spare time.

[brando69] 15/1/2017 18:52

what other listed investments to CA hold at present?

[extrader] 15/1/2017 09:51

Hi netcurtains,

Different approach, but I think we're looking at the same hymnbook, if not necessarily singing from the same hymn-sheet !

The only quibbles I have with your assessment, are that (1) I don't think CA would have any problem writing off £1M on a punt - it's what these guys do and (2) if they have 18%, they must be in for at least £ 3M. I could check the RNS's for a closer stab. But the 'affordability' still holds, I reckon.

That's why my stake here is just that, a punt.

ATB

[extrader] 15/1/2017 09:42

Hi MattAB,

CA bought into HUR opportunistically at a premium in the 'rescue rights ' issue last year - that was (and is) a company with potentially great assets and no debt.

JPR is different, some goodish assets and loads of debt, esp. in the form of bonds. You'd normally expect an asset stripper /corporate restructurer to buy the bonds on the cheap, wait for a default and then pick up/sell off the bits.

But with the bond tail already wagging the equity donkey (£ 138 M vs £ 17.6M), it's a lot cheaper for CA to pick up a meaningful stake in the latter.

They must figure that the writedown in book value - from £ 259 M to £ 112M (224p per share to 105 p per share) - was overdone and that there's some material 'hidden value'.

IF, for example, they could get BV to £200 M AND somehow keep debt/bond liability at, say, £150M or less, the equity would be '£ 50M' and the share price should be at least 3 x what it is now......And, of course, once it was 'priced for recovery', the share price could overshoot fair value and go a lot higher.

JPR is currently forecast to show eps for 2016 of 18.8p and for 2017 of 17.8p (per stockopedia). That's a lorra , lorra lolly ;->

Or maybe they have some other game plan in mind.

I wouldn't want to bet against CA.

In fact, as a holder (small) here and (larger) in HUR, I'm betting with them.

ATB

[netcurtains] 15/1/2017 09:40

fundamentally its not so important who is at the top but rather that CA clearly think there is a plan that will make the share price rise at least to the 30s perhaps much much higher.

I say this because no one would bung in ONE MILLION QUID on a long shot.

So the debate is not so much about what is the recovery plan but rather who do they want to be the "hero" who saves the company. Normally, in the RECOVERY phase you have a new CE... In the crashing phase you have the "fall guy" who has to do all the dirty work... I think CA are saying "its time for the recovery phase" and the hard pressed employees (and ex-employees) probably do not want the "fall guy" to be CE but rather a "hero".

Do we get the new CE before or after the sales of the newspapers.I would suggest it will be AFTER. The first news we will get will be the sales of more titles to buy cheap debt.

But I reiterate, its not so much about who is CE, its about CA turning ONE MILLION QUID into at least TWO MILLION QUID , perhaps a great deal more.

[mattab] 15/1/2017 09:13

It looks that way and well overdue IMO. Without CA's increase to around six percent the last time before buying Orbis's stake - who it seemed we're ready to sell the share price perhaps would have been as low as 6 pence. So CA's involvement has put the share price where it is now. Who would the have in mind for a successor? Indeed there would be a battle as from the reports in the media AH has the backing of the other Institutions.
So Orbis had enough and CA has took the charge versus AH and the rest of the Institutional support. That will be some battle unless CA can muster the other Institutions to back them - which tbh they could as all would want the same basic result - significant increase in value their respective shareholdings going forward. This won't be an easy task for CA but their proven track record is impressive.

[brink1] 14/1/2017 22:42

Looks like they might try and kick Ashley Highfield out

[brando69] 14/1/2017 12:41

seems to me this kind of stake building means their message is: either let us help you to turn things around, or we'll orchestrate a hostile takeover and make sure what needs to happen happens with or without you

[netcurtains] 14/1/2017 10:29

mrx9000: The Amber story began here (note how its percentage of ownership has gone up and up so that now its approaching 19% - back then, when this article was written, it was 6%):

[mrx9000] 14/1/2017 09:28

Yes they have been successful with many different companies. If i was to hazard a guess they will add another 5% to their holding and keep it just under the 25% area which they have a track record for. If i was to hazard a guess they probably paid in the low 20p area for the additional holding.

CA have already stated that they can help with a future debt reorganisation now they can also press for changes to a companies structure, a sale of the company etc, etc.

[brando69] 13/1/2017 22:51

impressive record these guys have

hxxp://crystalamber.com/about/investmentstrategy

[brando69] 13/1/2017 22:38

ianio hi, i sold out of wkp way too early! bagged a profit but lack of patience meant i missed out on far bigger gains.

made up for it in STY which has six bagged for me.

am optimistic about STY bagging again; also have high hopes for TRD, SAT, IQE and now this one - one of my former employers as a freelance journalist. They definitely need Crystal Amber to give them a shake up

[netcurtains] 13/1/2017 16:11

read all about it!
Come on you bulls!

[netcurtains] 13/1/2017 13:31

oracle one: the author of that article has at the top "writes about mergers and acquisitions" ...

[oracle one] 13/1/2017 13:26

www.cityam.com/256945/under-johnston-press-ure-activist-takes-19-per-cent-stake

[jackbal] 13/1/2017 12:30

Feels like price is being controlled/ artificially kept down, can only assume Ca are the puppeteer but why?

Perhaps I'm being far too cynical but after the rally from 8 to 21p last year my opinion is that there is now more progress/less risk hence the increase in the pennies in the pound in bonds. Why is price stuck in this 16-17 range as it was yesterday?

Maybe I'm being impatient but it feels like someone has their foot in the brake.

[ianio5691] 13/1/2017 12:26

Brando... not seen you since the YELL days. Still in WKP?