Jkx Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[jezza123] 18/12/2012 09:27

several punters have said jkx is like 'regal petroleum' - how on EARTH can you compare this company to RPT, a company that has never made any money....

[brucie5] 17/12/2012 15:58

I'm out. So should rise fairly immediately now.. (;

GLA.

[salpara111] 17/12/2012 15:08

I notice that short positions have increased dramatically in the last few weeks.
At the beginning of December there were fewer than 2M shares short here and now it is over 11M.
Personally I thought that all the downside was in the price but clearly those in the city think otherwise.
I guess I will just keep it on my watch list until the next set of results.

[jezza123] 17/12/2012 14:04

I think it is likely JKX will get less for it's gas and that is essentially priced into the current share price given it is down 50% since the beginning of the year.

I just don't believe JKX will get shut out of the market and be unable to sell at all.

[deanroberthunt] 17/12/2012 13:52

does anything ever happen here....

[donald tramp] 17/12/2012 13:15

Where's mallorca9. This was his top secret investment that he couldn't tell anyone about on other boards until he had took his position.

What a prat.

[g8ta] 16/12/2012 23:45

Another article about supplies from Germany. Note that this is Russian gas supplied through the Nord Stream pipe to Germany through the Baltic Sea, so a direct Russia to Germany pipe line. Ukraine pays spot prices for this gas. The gas from Russia, or Gazprom, is tied in with the price of oil, hence the strong rise Ukraine has been paying for the gas.



It is a short contract, so I think it is all games leading up to meetings like the one tomorrow or Tuesday. If Ukraine gets cheaper gas, they will have no need for a supply from Germany.

Putin will want a lot for his cheap gas, and with Ukraine wanting closer ties with the EU, I don't see how Yanukovych will pull it off.

JKX has been lucky with the high gas prices over this year to pay the $50m loan, but it should be expected that the price is going to come down one way or another. Hopefully this will be covered with a ramp up in production.

I don't know what to make of the article in the last post, but JKX state they are "the only non-state oil and gas company with a connection to the Souyez pipeline which transports gas directly into mainland Europe"

[g8ta] 16/12/2012 21:36

Could this be the reason for the short interest? It is dated 11 December 2012.

"Last week sources in the gas market provided information that on December 3 all private gas extracting companies of Ukraine were denied the right to freely sell the produced gas. Allegedly, Naftogaz simply crossed out private gas producers from the balance of suppliers and consumers of fuel in December 2012. At the same time, according to market participants, end customers received offers to conclude supply contracts with oblast gas distribution companies (oblgazes)."



Then you have articles like this:

[g8ta] 13/12/2012 21:07

Azarov has been appointed to Prime Minister of Ukraine again. I thought our MPs behaved like monkeys in a zoo at times, but they're choir boys compared to the Ukrainian lot.



I have yet to see any event, other than the government resignation, to cause the spike in short selling last week and imo it was the way it was reported in the press that provided the shorting opportunity.

From the telegraph again.



"Entire Ukraine government resigns "

"Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov and the entire government resigned today in a surprise move after controversial elections as the economy teeters on the brink of recession. "

"Entire Ukraine government resigns ". - Implies rudderless ship. Panic. Only later in the article is it explained that if the PM resigns then so must all cabinet ministers

"surprise move" - It was actually expected following the elections if you read the local press.

"economy teeters on the brink of recession. " - Along with most European countries and others around the world.

The Photograph - Azarov with his hand up "See you guys, I'm oudda here" - Taken in March.

This followed by speculation on who would succeed him and why he had done it. All cobblers.

Azarov has been acting PM since his resignation, and with his reinstatement, he never actually went anywhere. The whole episode was just a formality from the elections in October.

Trust the press to make a drama of it.

In the mean time, share price down triggering stop losses and rattling confidence.

The thing is, did this affect any other Ukraine operators? Well, not Ferrexpo for one.


The Russian-led Customs Union



Ukraine needs a loan from the IMF (or someone) and a meeting was postponed until January due to the resignations. The IMF won't release any funds unless Ukraine raises gas prices to balance the books so to speak. I think the gas is actually subsidised. This would be unpopular, so Ukraine needs
to source cheaper gas.

I think JKX is getting about $390 for gas in the Ukraine and $90 in Russia per 1000cu meters. If Ukraine joins the Customs Union then it is not good for JKX






But, from the information in the links, is it likely?

[salpara111] 13/12/2012 16:49

I have just been reading an article on Bloomberg about oil shale in N. America. I was shocked to read how the USA is rapidly increasing oil production to the point that they produced 83% of their domestic demand this year and they are expected to reach 100% in the not too distant future.
Their natural gas price is now close to a decade low.
I have to confess to being genuinely confused as to what the real supply/demand situation is globally for oil and gas at present.
My point is that there are a lot of smaller players out there that I don't think will survive if there is a big downward correction in the oil price over the next year.
I closed my small long for a small loss as I am genuinely unclear what the financials of a company like JKX are going to look like going forward.
If the next set of results is reassuring then I would go long in a fairly big way but until then I think I will sit this one out.

[falklands] 13/12/2012 14:15

Mmm well it's about time we said some home truths about why the share price has fallen and shorts increased. That's why I have watched and not bought.

On Dec 18th it's likely Ukraine will sign a contract with Russia halving the gas price now what's that going to do to jkx ?

And point two ramping up production will jkx be just back to square one based on this effect and increased tax.

I personally would like to hear balanced responses to these two points which I think effect us all whether short, long, holding or watching

[deanroberthunt] 13/12/2012 10:45

Any idea why Barclays have this market as CLOSED ?

[deanroberthunt] 12/12/2012 12:25

well i's been a great year for JKX stock holders.............ahem

[jaka] 12/12/2012 02:47

Medium shorting indicated on ft.com

[jaka] 12/12/2012 02:14

Could be an over reaction to politics in the region around the Koshekhablskoye oil field. Speculation based on ethnic Russians leaving or even fleeing the region, changing the political landscape forever and that the trouble that followed eventually would be the downfall of Putin and eventually the whole of Russia. Even these speculators reckon its not going to happen anytime soon. Its the same stuff that gets branded about the Crimea in Ukraine and largely, from the same source The Jamestown Foundation.

The Jamestown Foundation is a Washington, D.C.-based institute for research and analysis, founded in 1984 as a platform to support Soviet dissidents. Wiki.

[cr4zyness] 11/12/2012 19:39

Simon agree with your post, bones interesting thanks

[professor x] 11/12/2012 17:41

I'm not actually a professor Brucie5, just a massive X-men fan. I work in Post Production.

[bones30] 11/12/2012 17:31

14% -> 18% jump in stock on loan according to

as well. 18% is very high. Any squeeze could be really interesting.

Odd that its not disclosed here:

[simon gordon] 11/12/2012 17:25

Based on the latest update you'd think JKX was a deep value play, the share did base out for three months whilst waiting for more constructive news, logically you don't put on a short like that unless you have dug hard and expect some bad news, because good news from Russia should make the share rally, so it looks a risky point to put on a short, especially nearly 8 million shares. That's a hefty bet. If I was a hedgie I'd only put on a bet like that if I knew bad news was brewing.

[bones30] 11/12/2012 17:24

Is this trading elsewhere, as I find it jumping around a lot on L2 - but no trades.

Dark pools?

[brucie5] 11/12/2012 17:23

Strength in numbers - at least there are two of us.. What do are you professor of?