Jkx Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[professor x] 11/12/2012 17:19

You're not alone Brucie5. I have bought in at 94, 81 and 74 so am also quite a bit under water. I also don't think the volume is high enough today to suggest anything sinister is at work!

[brucie5] 11/12/2012 17:16

Well, never say never, especially in the Ukraine, but it's getting awfully cheap now. I'd imagine that shorters see the break of the 70 level as an open goal. They may be right short term, but it's going to take some bad news indeed to justify this going lower. That said, looks like I got my timing wrong here. :(

[salpara111] 11/12/2012 17:09

That is one hell of a spike in short positions in the last few days!
I guess it explains the fall in the share price but the question is.....Is it based on something company specific or just the idea that a stock exposed to Ukraine has become riskier.

[brucie5] 11/12/2012 17:06

This is annoying. And perplexing given the valuation.

[simon gordon] 11/12/2012 16:56

g8ta,

Thanks.

[g8ta] 11/12/2012 16:29

simon gordon - From the following site. Towards the bottom right hand corner - Markit.



Shorters smell blood. DGO also getting hammered.

[simon gordon] 11/12/2012 16:19

I've sold, now broken three months of support, smells like bad news is on the way.

Good fortune.

[wantmorethan24p] 11/12/2012 16:19

GOOGLE regal petroleum







jezza123
11 Dec'12 - 14:34 - 866 of 873 0 0


Afternoon all - I don't really see why the activities of the punch and judy politics in Ukraine really have that much relevance to the share price - unless their is a chance some future government would revoke JKX's licences or seize assets - neither of which I think are that likely.

Can someone give me a bit of background of political relevance here? Thanks alot.

[simon gordon] 11/12/2012 15:54

g8ta,

Can you post a link to your source for the short interest. I used to get it from Data Explorers but it's no longer available on their site.

[rikky72] 11/12/2012 15:50

This is gonna cost me quite a few bob if it goes a couple of points lower.. thought 73 would be the bottom but obviously not..

[simon gordon] 11/12/2012 15:06

Jezza,

You'll have to spend a couple of hours reading to get inside the story, there are others on here who know it deeper than I do.

Russia is a brand new gas plant, recently they've had some problems with the wells and these are being fixed one by one.

In Ukraine they got clobbered by a higher tax rate.

There are many reasons for why the share's where it is.

Happy reading.

[sporazene2] 11/12/2012 14:43

Russian gas price is low and will be sold only on the domestic market.

[greenroom78] 11/12/2012 14:40

Debt ends this month. That will improve cashflow a fair bit.

[simon gordon] 11/12/2012 14:37

Jezza,

Ukraine's a bit of a sideshow right now, the key thing for JKX, and the share price, is to get the Russain gas field running at 100% of capacity, the last update stated it was at 50%. Any more problems with the Russian wells and the share could sink further.

[jezza123] 11/12/2012 14:34

Afternoon all - I don't really see why the activities of the punch and judy politics in Ukraine really have that much relevance to the share price - unless their is a chance some future government would revoke JKX's licences or seize assets - neither of which I think are that likely.

Can someone give me a bit of background of political relevance here? Thanks alot.

[salpara111] 11/12/2012 13:58

Hmm, just lost the support line.
Have to say that I thought it had found a bottom around 75.
Clearly Mr market is unwilling to give them the benefit of the doubt.
The problem is that it will be a while before there is any new news.

[monkey puzzle] 11/12/2012 12:47

Just when you thought it couldn't go any lower......

[g8ta] 09/12/2012 17:40

Brucie5 - If they were still paying the divi, they would have made all three tables! Hopefully the divi will start again from next years interims.

[brucie5] 09/12/2012 16:48

Good link, g8ta, from which I read:

'JKX Oil and Gas is the sole share to be found in the P/E and P/TB tables, and that's it for double showings.'

[g8ta] 09/12/2012 16:40

Storm in a tea cup if this is the reason for the fall. The resignation of the PM and cabinet was expected after the elections in October. In Ukraine, if the PM resigns, so must all the other cabinet members.

Azarov has been nominated again today.

"Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich on Sunday nominated Mykola Azarov for a second term as prime minister, opting to keep a tried and tested lieutenant at his side rather than take the risky step of naming a newcomer as economic problems mount."





As for JKX, according to the financial reports, the final installment of $3.3m for the $50m loan was due last month, so that should be done and dusted.

This from a rummage:

A forward PE of 0.3



I don't know how his search came to this, but it looks good. For the end of this financial year, if the revenue is about the same as h1, I make an underlying (without DDA) PE to be about 2.6.

Reverse your short, PhatProfit, and lets join the Santa Rally.

[g8ta] 08/12/2012 18:16

I take it that the drop this week was due to the Ukraine government resignation and the fake terminal fiasco.



It appears short interest has spiked from under 2m to 8m.

[brucie5] 08/12/2012 13:17

Frustrating to see this falling down again towards bottom of the range, but will be interesting to see how it holds, if indeed this is the bottom.