Jersey Oil And Gas Share Discussion Threads

[trulyscrumptious] 27/3/2017 14:21

From today's Malcy's blog:

Jersey Oil & Gas
A new CPR by ERCE on the Verbier and Cortina prospects has upped the gross mean prospective resources. For the former it goes from 118 to 162 and the latter 91 to 124m whilst the COS rates for Verbier rise from 26 to 29% and for Cortina to 19%. With a Capital Markets Day on wednesday I remain of the view that this is the most geared up play in the sector ahead of Statoil drilling in the summer. As close to a no-brainer as one can get, providing one is agile ahead of the drill bit spinning, JOG has a lot further to go.

[top tips] 27/3/2017 13:21

Malcy said JOG could go to £5 pre drill this summer and £10+ on success but with the 37% increase in resource at Verbier that now becomes £6.85 pre drill and £13.70+ on success.

[trulyscrumptious] 27/3/2017 11:42

Ooh, make that 4th equal, very nice!

[trulyscrumptious] 27/3/2017 11:32

I just noticed we are number 8 in the top risers!

[trulyscrumptious] 27/3/2017 07:45

Yes, great way to kickstart the week, things are looking better and better. Luckily, I topped up when it dropped to 210p last week. Roll on summer!

[sja123] 27/3/2017 07:39

Great update this morning......looking like almost 50% upgrade on possible resource at Verbier.....nice :-)

[piwood] 24/3/2017 08:35

TipTV interview: Malcy’s 2017 Oil Bucket List update, interesting with regard to Jersey

[baner] 23/3/2017 19:36

it seems the market is sobering up. as the Verbier project has been evaluated we will see the shares at either 1p or 500p..........with a much higher probability it will be the former.........there is an obvious risk there is panic around the corner.......100p in June?

[trulyscrumptious] 23/3/2017 17:08

cyan.Yes, it's going to be very interesting. I topped up with another 3505 @210.4 that has been put down late as a sell.

[plentymorefish] 23/3/2017 15:54

lots to buy currently available but need to put an order in to sell, suggests that the MMs' have plenty. I like the small number of shares in issue here but I guess it's a double edged sword when there are no buyers and some want to sell

[cyan] 23/3/2017 15:17

Malcy talks about JOG and the drilling in August. States drill positive result will be worth £10 per share plus. States will easily go to £5 per share BEFORE the drill.

[mesquida] 16/3/2017 22:10

That 50,000@230, reported after hours this afternoon, is actually a trade from Tuesday 14th March. It was almost certainly a purchase.

[rogerlin] 16/3/2017 15:57

Thanks oilretire, let's hope we hear about the rig soon, the previous Talisman well does seem to be a positive and Statoil must think highly of the prospect to have progressed it so rapidly. After Trap's run of bad luck perhaps fortunes are due to change!

[oilretire] 16/3/2017 10:45

rogerlin15 Mar '17 - 20:50 - 275 of 281 0 0
Surely Fugro Galaxy already did the site survey, does that not mean the well location already planned?,

My take - Fugro Galaxy site survey would only cover the seabed survey i.e. sussing out where its safe to lay anchors for a semi, jack down legs on a jack up as well as safe spud locations on seabed surface.

The comment regarding well location not yet finalised will refer to the sub surface target.

[baner] 16/3/2017 10:26

mesquida

sorry, i was a bit wrong here - the shares seems to be up more than 400% since Oct 5, 2016. so not a bad advice then............and maybe not a bad advice today.......? it is all about risk/reward and clearly the downside is rather significant at £22m market cap if the 74% probability kicks in. however, as i stated in Oct 2016, IF Statoil is successful, then also 200p for Jersey is cheap, without any doubt at all. so i have not changed my mind - and so far i have done really well with this. i hope you can agree.

[baner] 16/3/2017 08:27

It is not nervousness - it is logical. Since oct 2016 the shares are up.....2-300%? At 200p the shares are clearly cheap IF Statoil confirm a major find. There is a 74% risk they will not.

[mesquida] 16/3/2017 07:38

You have certainly changed your tune since your posting of 5/10/16


Fly me to the moon! Take off just commenced - 200p next stop and still cheap if Statoil confirm major oil find. Fasten your seat belts.

And you wrote this when the price of oil was significantly lower. Why the sudden bout of nervousness now ?

[baner] 16/3/2017 07:18

Mesquida

Statoil has the resources to play the statistics: if they do four of these projects one will create massive value and three will be worthless. Still a good net. For Jersey, they only have one chance in this and there is, they state, a 74% risk this is a worthless bet. So you should not compare Statoil with Jersey in this - there is a Huge difference. The stock market is valuing Jersey weighing the potential risk against the ditto reward and is willing to loose £22m on a bad outcome. That is not a cheap ticket.

[mesquida] 16/3/2017 06:17

baner, interesting that Statoil were so keen to farm-in, sort of puts a different spin on it, does it not ?

[baner] 15/3/2017 22:10

If there is a 26% probability of commercial success at verbier, there seems to be a three times greater likelyhood that both Verbier and Jersey are worthless ? If you add to that the risk of the oil price coming down again, the risk/reward with Jersey valued at ca £22m does not seem that attractive?

[rogerlin] 15/3/2017 20:50

Surely Fugro Galaxy already did the site survey, does that not mean the well location already planned? The latest presentation shows the location of 20/5a-10Y on the edge of the "Verbier fan" (slide 12) but not sure how that fits to the prospect outline on other pictures.

[oilretire] 15/3/2017 15:39

From Edison today......

In 2006, the Buchan field operator Talisman drilled the 20/5a-10Y well to the north west of Buchan and adjacent to Verbier. Talisman was primarily interested in targeting the deeper Jurassic Sgiath formation, but the well also tested younger Late Jurassic sands of an equivalent age to those interpreted to be in the Verbier prospect at 4804b/d and 2.6mmscfd. It is therefore possible that the
Exploration watch | 15 March 2017 1010Y well tagged the edge of Verbier and that this has de-risked the prospect. The key risk to the play is considered to be the lateral seal, with the Kimmeridge Clay source established in the region
and good reservoir found in 20/5a-10Y. The company estimates a GCoS of 26% for the well.
The well location is not yet finalised, but will target the thickest sands in the fan system. A site survey has been completed and a rig tender process is underway. The well will have a TD of 3,400m in a water depth of 125m. Under the terms of the farm-out, Statoil will carry the well costs up to a cap of $25m, at a value to JOG of $4.5m. In addition, JOG benefits from a further 10% carry from CIECO for a two-well programme. If successful, JOG has identified a further Buzzard
sandstone submarine fan to the east of Verbier, Cortina, with a P50 STOIIP of 212mmbbls.
JOG is also connected to Azinor’s Partridge well, since it farmed down its interest in P1989 to Azinor in December 2015 in return for conditional future payments of up to $4m, with the first $2m due after any discovery.

[rogerlin] 15/3/2017 08:31

Time we were hearing about the rig?

[kirkuk] 08/3/2017 15:00

Wonder if there will be an RNS tomorrow
before the presentation. Hopefully new
deals will be in the offing.

[rogerlin] 06/3/2017 15:54

"Although this will be the immediate focus JOG should not be considered a one block play and I know that the very strong team are working up a number of potential projects in a number of areas".

That from Malcy's bucket list comments. It would be nice to get some firm news on something else before the Verbier drill. There is only so much mileage in the hopes for a single drill result, and the outcome if the well is dry will not be good.