Jersey Oil And Gas Share Discussion Threads

[rogerlin] 22/8/2017 19:05

Dismal price action of late, you wouldn't have thought that we were drilling down towards the Holy Grail.

[georgie pie] 17/8/2017 10:09

Fair point cash, I think JOG are aware they are on the edge of the of the play so to speak but a little diversion may be needed, I'm hoping for a strike with the first well but as you say the more data that can be gained whilst we still have the rig will be invaluable. I wonder who's call it would be? JOG would want it that goes without saying but as STAT are funding the first £25m and control the purse strings over all I'd guess they have the final word.

[cashandcard] 17/8/2017 09:37

George pie,


Interesting. Indeed, Statoil seem to be able to get through these holes quickly. Mind you, that's a super rig of sorts, it had a great campaign for Hurricane WoS. Although, I think the sidetrack is mainly as an insurance policy should the main 'step-out' hole fail. There is another possibility. Cast your mind back to 2010 and Encore oil's Catcher discoveries.

Encore announced the Catcher discovery then immediately kicked-off the Catcher East sidetrack then the Catcher south-west sidetrack. The sidetracks allowed them to capitalise and gain as much data as possible before the rig went off contract. If Statoil have the rig on contract, why not maximise the data bank and appraise any discovery with a sidetrack?


Cash

[georgie pie] 16/8/2017 08:32

I get the feeling they left Verbier until last as they know it will more than likely need the side track drilling hence the possible 70 day timeline, I'm sure we will have hydrocarbon finding news long before then!

Mariner & Jock Scott were drilled very quickly indeed, Statoil must have it down to a fine art, so here's to a exciting few weeks with a company changing result at the end of it. 📈

[ethics_gradient] 16/8/2017 07:30

Sidetrack is positive. It means that they have found something interesting enough to merit spending the extra rig time exploring. Any kind of DST is generally very good news

[georgie pie] 15/8/2017 17:07

I'm sure someone... will know somebody...who knows someone up their in Aberdeen if all is going well.... some sizeable trades will start appearing no doubt! ;-0

Not seen 100k volume for a while....lets hope this builds!

[rogerlin] 15/8/2017 16:49

This rig has got through its two previous drills very quickly, Statoil are not very communicative, hopefully JOG will update promptly but they will have to defer to their partners.

[cashandcard] 15/8/2017 16:07

Shabba,


Here's what I think, if they strike water-wet sands etc, its known that there is the 10y discovery on the flank, which flowed over 4,000bopd from J64 sands. So, come back up the well and kickoff the sidetrack into that flank area where the discovery was made.

There is oil present, proven to flow, they are initially testing whether it extends beyond the flank. If not - prudence dictates - sidetrack into the actual discovery area itself.

Provision for a sidetrack is the insurance policy if the main hole fails.


Cash

[shabbadabbadoo2] 15/8/2017 16:02

So why would they sidetrack or why would they not?

If they find nothing, do they sidetrack to keep looking, or is a sidetrack an indication that they found something and are looking at reservoir quality?

[georgie pie] 15/8/2017 12:49

plenty time to make here before then tim

[timw3] 15/8/2017 08:11

Heads up Seller cleared at AAOG... $800m spud in 4 weeks!!

AAOG without doubt in play now seller out with that 1m sell printed after hours.

Fincapp valuations:

Mengo hit 750bopd - £70m MCAP - £1
Djeno hit 10k bopd - £750m MCAP - £10

So £11 potential vs 28p share price

Current market cap is only £10m once cash is stripped out.

£10m cap vs $1billion potential...

No brainer at these levels.

60p+ target at least prior to spud in 4 weeks

[georgie pie] 15/8/2017 08:11

No Time for dithering here, once this goes the days of £2 are gone for ever

[croasdalelfc] 15/8/2017 07:59

Malcy - says 30 days or so without sidetrack - 70 days with

[cyan] 14/8/2017 22:43

'upside' of between 250p and 1000p means that Malcy thinks success share price could be anywhere from approx 500p to 1250p.. I would prefer 1250 myself lol

[georgie pie] 14/8/2017 14:26

Malcy podcast today courtesy of grewber on LSE.

£10 or more if Verbier is good.


listen from 22mins..

[ethics_gradient] 14/8/2017 14:14

Success at Verbier is worth around £13 a share unrisked to JOG. Based on a 18% stake, the CPR and oil at $50. This is from the Capital Markets presentation 11th May this year

[georgie pie] 14/8/2017 13:26

love it.


Investors will be aware that there is potential downside if this well doesn't come in but JOG has plenty more to offer, if however it should be successful then the shares will justify a significantly higher price, well above 500p in my estimation.

[trulyscrumptious] 14/8/2017 13:14

Malcy says.'The well is expected to take between 30-70 days and may include a sidetrack...'
The company says up to 70 days. Where does Malcy get the 30 days minimum from or is he presuming the initial well will take about 30 days?

From today's blog.

Jersey Oil and Gas
Much excitement round at JOG I imagine as the news is confirmed that Statoil has spudded the Verbier prospect over the weekend, a well that would totally transform the company. The well is expected to take between 30-70 days and may include a sidetrack, Statoil, (70%) are funding the first $25m and JOG (18%) gets a further cash carry of 10% of the well costs from CIECO. The well is targeting mean prospective resources of 162m barrels of oil equivalent and is given a 29% COS by ERC in their CPR. Higher than the normal wildcat in the area this is probably due to the significance of the 20/5a-10Y well drilled by Talisman back in 2006. At the analyst’s presentation some months ago much was made of this deviated well, it wasn’t targeting these J64 sands but passed through them and tested oil and gas on the intersection. JOG clearly feel that that intersection to be within the south eastern flank of the Verbier prospect and thus the reasons for being so optimistic.
JOG is not purely a play on this well but it is fair to say that a good result here would be a game changer for the company. The highly experienced team at JOG have spent time building a portfolio and intend to continue with acquisitions of exploration and production assets. Accordingly it is worth noting that Azinor Catalyst are apparently about to spud on the Partridge prospect where JOG have an interest. As a result of the farm-out, should a discovery be made then JOG would receive a $2m payout with another $2m should a formal FDP be approved. Furthermore, success on Verbier would likely be good news for the Cortina prospect on the same licence which is targeting the same Upper Jurassic J64 sandstone. JOG went into the bucket list in February and has performed very well having started at 114p and traded as high as 317p and now settling at around 250p. Investors will be aware that there is potential downside if this well doesnt come in but JOG has plenty more to offer, if however it should be successful then the shares will justify a significantly higher price, well above 500p in my estimation.

[cyan] 14/8/2017 12:29

Would have been nice to see JOG having made an acquisition by now. Its now a binary option play with about a one in three chance of success.
Am hopeful but realistic. I top sliced when we were North of three quid.
Fingers crossed.

[sheep_herder] 14/8/2017 11:30

Or you could just read the RNS above?

[rogerlin] 14/8/2017 11:28

Estimate 70 days with possible sidetrack according to this.

[georgie pie] 14/8/2017 11:06

Long overdue...but I'm sure it's coming!

[rogerlin] 14/8/2017 08:53

I think the Ocean Guardian has also settled down at Partridge, there is no spud announcement from Azinor Catalyst but maybe not to be expected? The talk of acquiring a producing asset seems to have come to nothing, several small north sea companies looking to do this but not much progress. So nothing to cushion the blow should Verbier fail. But it was a poor producing asset Athena which really did for Trap, although there were drilling failures too. We are due a success IMHO!

[georgie pie] 14/8/2017 07:40

1 in 3 more like....see you at £8!