Jersey Oil And Gas Share Discussion Threads

[ethics_gradient] 24/2/2017 03:56

WITJ - ITT (Invitation To Tender) process allows vendors around 30 days to submit tenders. Then the Company may take around 30 -60 days to evaluate the tenders allowing time for clarification meetings, discussions etc before awarding the contract. Given that it has been stated that the well will be drilled in the summer, I would guess maybe April /May before we hear anything concrete, unless the ITT process is already well underway. Just my best guestimate. Drilling the well in summer does of course make sense as it take advantage of the better weather which saves time during the spudding process. Good news is that rig rates are rock bottom at present so Statoil should be able to source a quality rig at a low price, not that it particularly matters to JOG as they have $25M free carry which should be enough unless they encounter the "well from hell".

Surprised by the lack of activity here on this BB, which suggests not a lot of people are aware of this Company and could lead to significant upside to come when the herd arrives given the lack of liquidity. Could be an exciting ride both on the up and downside.

The risked figures are interesting but do not account for development and lifting costs of Verbier. Lets say e.g. it will cost $20/barrel to extract the oil, this would have to be deducted from both the risked and unrisked figures, but obviously still a massive potential upside from current share price.

The only concern I have is the potential for this Company to look at a discounted R.I. where P.I.s get screwed and institutions make a quick profit. It would make sense to them for two reasons, (1)Obvious they will need the cash and (2)It helps liquidity of the share.

Anyway I am in for the ride with a substantial chunk of my IAE profits.

Good luck to all, no advice intended and DYOR of course

EG

P.S. Isn't it time for a new thread? Don't think TRAP is relevant anymore.

[plentymorefish] 23/2/2017 15:56

How many shares in issue? That's the beauty here, I'm holding tight

[milliecusto] 23/2/2017 09:09

Guys have a look at zen 14m mkt cap oil play..news potentially next week

[rafieh] 23/2/2017 08:30

Buyers coming out of the woodwork.

[whiskeyinthejar] 22/2/2017 15:28

Pull back on oil price hurting us today I think.

I read that jog was saying last week that Statoil is currently tendering for a rig to drill Verbier. I'm not sure how long tendering process takes? But I'm guessing that we'll hear soon when then they book a rig.

[geoffmanana] 22/2/2017 11:32

Joined the party 10k at 208.4p......not showing yet.

[whiskeyinthejar] 21/2/2017 22:10

Verbier numbers are listed here at slide 12 of their corporate presentation.



Fun to play with the numbers? Jog say then that in Verbier they are targeting 117 million barrels.

Chance of success is 26%. So RISKED resources =30.5 m barrels.

Jog say value per barrel is $14.30. So total risked value of the field is:
£14.30x 30.5=£436m

Jog share of Verbier is 18% of that, so:
£436m x 0.18= £78million

There's about 9 million shares

78m/9m=8.7

So risked value per share of Verbier is about 9 quid, as the slide says.

So:

The 26% risk factor has already been applied to get the 9 quid Nav number.

Unrisked, however, if Verbier delivers, value per share will then be 4 times as much. ie 4x9= 36 quid a share.

But slide 12 says this is based on $50 oil to give the value of £14.30 per barrel. This seems pessimistic to me. Long term oil price should hit $55-60 imo.

At $55 oil price, would imply (£14.30+£;5) £19.30 per barrel value then.

Risked: £19.30x 30.5=£588m
18% is jog share:£106m
Risked value per share at $55: £11.77

Similarly, £60 oil implies a risked value of £15 per share. Unrisked £60 per share.

Lol.

[impvesta] 21/2/2017 10:15

It would be possible for the sale or purchase of just 1 share to trigger an RNS if that was enough to move through an exact percentage point.

[trulyscrumptious] 21/2/2017 10:08

Yes, of course, it just seems quite rare to sell so few and trigger an RNS. But then there are so few shares in circulation here.

[mesquida] 21/2/2017 09:52

Because the sale took the holder through a percentage level. Similarly with Gyllenhammar the other day, an RNS was required because he sold 10,000 ! Presumably you know the rules concerning disclosure of significant shareholdings ?

[trulyscrumptious] 21/2/2017 09:15

An RNS required for selling only 25K!!!

[rafieh] 21/2/2017 08:10

The next leg up towards £3 has started.

[rafieh] 20/2/2017 07:50

Thanks David.

[davidpqz] 20/2/2017 00:59

Rafieh. See wiki.aapg.org for details of risk assessment.

[davidpqz] 20/2/2017 00:41

26% probability of commercial success,74% probability of no commercial success.

[wisecat2] 19/2/2017 08:08

NY Boy sorry you clicked onto the wrong board

[ny boy] 19/2/2017 07:40

PVR is going to start following this chart pattern from last year, worth taking a look dyor as usual.

[rafieh] 18/2/2017 17:52

David26% of what? I didn't quite get your point.

[davidpqz] 18/2/2017 17:05

Somewhere on the website in a string of figures it's given as 26%. I copied it but didn't record the page number.

[rafieh] 17/2/2017 19:48

Thank you Rogerlin. So the chart has been readjusted

[rogerlin] 17/2/2017 19:39

Trap was 40 pence originally but fell to a few pence before the 100:1 consolidation and the conversion into JOG in July 2015. At that time JOG did a placing (in the new shares) at 22 pence and so the current shares really started from there.

[rafieh] 17/2/2017 18:05

Hi guys,

Just joined in today with a small position. Could someone please tell me if the 5-year chart has been adjusted to reflect the share consolidation?

According to ADVFN long term graph, the share price has been as high as £40 in 2011.(20 times more than what it is today.) The market cap today is around £20m. Was it around £400 in the year 2011?

Answers highly appreciated.

[whiskeyinthejar] 17/2/2017 17:13

Ok thanks for reply.

[cyan] 17/2/2017 15:52

Not seen any COS.
The prospect has been described as 'moderate risk' which is realistic imo.

[whiskeyinthejar] 17/2/2017 15:34

Do jog give a figure for cos (chance of success)?