Jersey Oil And Gas Share Discussion Threads

[ziblot] 27/1/2019 16:42

220 next wk.

[daler1966] 27/1/2019 10:44

I bought 4K shares late Friday after price drop, and hopefully buy next week if share falls below 200p, ready for Verbier results in March time?

[captain james t kirk] 25/1/2019 17:27

That's a little high.
Note 7 in the interims shows £24.3m losses ring fenced against corp tax of 30% and the supplementary charge of 10%. That gives us around 46p a share.
There's also £1.8m of non ring fenced losses but we'll put them in at the same rates giving us an extra 3p. Then there are also £5.7m of losses to offset against future supplementary charge profits @ 10% giving another 2.5p.
So that's just over 50p per share and well worth using either by JOG or someone else such as Equinor, CIECO or Repsol/Sinopec :)

[davidblack] 25/1/2019 15:21

Losses on the balance sheet £72m, so corporation tax at say 20% you can add in £14.4m of off balance sheet assets arising from a bid.

Put another way at today’s £40m market cap at £2.05 a share, there is a further 73p on the table for someone willing and able to bid for this company if they have taxable revenues in UK tax jurisdiction.

It’s a nasty little incentive for big sharks to take out smaller players too early for most retail shareholders to get the full upside!

Someone sold 16k after 4pm and took the stock right backdown.

[hiddendepths] 25/1/2019 12:13

No-one's mentioned the tax losses for a while. They're often overlooked but very valuable to a North Sea producer.

[mariopeter] 25/1/2019 12:08

Anyone know what a recoverable barrel is worth in the ground in the North Sea so close to mega oil infrastructure....assuming $70 Brent?

[daler1966] 25/1/2019 11:46

Wonder when or if we will hear on 3D Seismic data prior to drill ?

[davidblack] 25/1/2019 11:07

Not many shares around, now moving up on 12,000 shares traded.

Add good news and we should see this sprint nicely.

[captain james t kirk] 25/1/2019 11:05

I believe it's best to stick to company guidance on recoverables. They have all the data and the expertise to decipher it:) As you will be aware, Verbier and Cortina straddle the Buchan field. As a case in point, original estimates of recoverasble oil for Buchan were in the region of 90mmbo. It ended up producing over 150mmbo.

[fardels bear] 25/1/2019 10:56

RF is determined by many things. 50% of STOIIP is considered excellent in the North Sea, where the average is 38%. JOG presentations claim that Verbier is analogous to Buzzard. A swift google for Recovery factor Buzzard field brings up a study with some figures, I have appended below. BuzzardThe Buzzard field was discovered in June 2001. It is located about 62kilometres from St. Fergus and lies in a water depth of about 100 metres. The field's OOIP is estimated at about 1.2 billion barrels of which about 550 mmbbls are estimated to be recoverable. First oil was produced in 2007, while cumulative oil production stood at 259 mmbbls at the end of 2010.

[captain james t kirk] 25/1/2019 10:52

Fardels
They are figures featured in the CPR dated March 2017 before the Verbier discovery was made. In short they are old and redundant figures.

[fardels bear] 25/1/2019 10:44

I was quoting the figures from the operations section of the company's website. Surely you have all read that?

[trulyscrumptious] 25/1/2019 10:21

A couple of old snippets from Malcy.
Assuming the data confirms existing numbers, and the Statoil news release was unusually forthcoming with regard to a need for an appraisal well, then the 25-130m bbls existing estimate should prove conservative. If that is the case, and it is not by any means certain, then there must be a chance of an exploration well on the Cortina prospect which is of a similar nature and must have been de-risked by this well.

I think that based on admittedly limited information, JOG shareholders should be very happy, as the current information in my view validates the share price as it is now with the potential for a good deal more if Statoil “clarify the recoverable volumes and to refine this range,” as they say in their RNS.

With JOG still very much looking for production deals and now with potentially very exciting exploration upside I am extremely confident about the outlook and it more than justifies bucket list retention.

Jersey Oil & Gas
It was a very good year for JOG but now we are looking front and centre and the company is in very good nick. With cash of £25.4m and the summer drilling and seismic programme planned to be at the top end of the forecast £9-11m of capex, JOG is set fair. Statoil is planning a Verbier appraisal well and possibly a sidetrack and with the seismic programme looking for Verbier analogues there is much scope for upside. At 210p JOG looks astonishingly undervalued.

[daler1966] 25/1/2019 10:11

205p Buy next near drill 225/250p

[mariopeter] 25/1/2019 09:34

And just to be clear our range of 25 mmbo to 130 mmbo is RECOVERABLE which is 60%(usually) of STOIIP.

[daler1966] 25/1/2019 08:55

Verbier 3rd drill hopefully not to long then lift off,

[trulyscrumptious] 25/1/2019 08:54

SteMis. I think Malcy used the term, 'lower end', without stipulating an exact figure. It could be a few mmmbo either way. At this stage that is about as accurate as anyone can be, hence the appraisal which will give a much more precise figure. Hopefully, that will show we have nearer the higher end! GLA

PS CJK. Yes, I saw that recently. This could all happen quite quickly now.

[captain james t kirk] 25/1/2019 08:35

Incidentally, I was looking at the Verbier sidetrack discovery rns the other day and they gave guidance of 25-35 days to reach the target.
They actually got there in 21 days. These little pluses can be quite significant in the overall scheme of things.

[stemis] 25/1/2019 08:34

For 4.5mmbo to be worth 200p, you'd have to value it at $12.7/bl

Of course the mean estimate is 12.4mmbo

[pro_s2009] 25/1/2019 08:20

Mmmm yes..... you mean the Chance of Success of finding oil at Verbier, where they have already found oil........

[trulyscrumptious] 25/1/2019 06:40

Durbrain alert!

[fardels bear] 24/1/2019 22:49

Don't forget to divide by the COS which is 29% for Verbier and 19% for Cortina. The last prospect, Maribel doesn't seem to have a COS attached yet.

[pro_s2009] 24/1/2019 19:57

Indeed, 4.5 MMBO net is worth over 200p a share to JOG. So the downside is fairly well avoided at the current share price.

Now multiply that by 5 for the potential upside and you get well over 1000p a share if it comes in near the top line figures.

And yes, then there is Cortina as well which hold significant potential.

[trulyscrumptious] 24/1/2019 18:52

I reckon it will be nearer 150mmbo. That is just Verbier, Cortina is even bigger!

[bomfin] 24/1/2019 18:07

4.5million barrels net. Worth current share price plus some imho. I believe it is bigger than 25 million barrels gross(4.5 million barrels net)