Jersey Oil And Gas Share Discussion Threads

[rogerlin] 26/10/2018 08:33

Equinor are busy with more important matters, they don't do announcements for small shareholders. We will just have to follow the Phoenix and hope it arrives at the promised land eventually.

[xxnjr1] 25/10/2018 19:55

The last well (6604/5-1) West Phoenix drilled took 65 days to drill. Every well is different but it wouldn't surprise if JOG ended up having egg on their face. The rig IS a pretty decent bit of kit, but even so, it's surprising JOG are still clinging to the notion that Verbier will be drilled mid to late Q4. It's about time the company revised their guidance.

[hiddendepths] 25/10/2018 12:10

Thanks bullson!

Timing seems very optimistic to me. I'd be surprised if Ragnfrid North is finished within the next week. Maybe if it's drilled quickly and is dry! And to get to UK waters and drill both Pip and Bigfoot AND spud Verbier this year would be astonishing if they can pull it off.

I'm considering making a marzipan hat, but I doubt I'll get to eat it!

[bullson1] 25/10/2018 10:44

Not sure if this has been shared before but here is the official fleet report from Seadrill (owner of the West Phoenix) dated 27th of Sep 18 with the time schedule they got for the West Phoenix on their website:
Norway Equinor Start Sep/18 End Oct/18
UK Equinor Start Nov/18 End Feb/19

Obviously there is some flexibility in there but pretty much fits the Equinor/Jog statement about the 4-5 months total duration for all 4 programs and Verbier being sometime between Dec-Feb.
Good luck all holders!

[zebbo] 21/10/2018 20:05

Does anyone have any idea as to how long Pip and Bigfoot will take? Ragnfrid North spudded beginning of Oct +81 days (maybe ~60 if progress is good). There is no way we will spud in Q4, with pip & bigfoot waiting in line. Q1/2 more likely. Does not alter the investment opportunity, just a little longer to wait.

[hiddendepths] 18/10/2018 16:44

Expressed dissatisfaction at the current status of the well timing and the technical director has responded as follows...

"The advice we have given to you is the latest we have received from operator and therefore, at this time, represents the most accurate advice in relation to the timing of the drilling of the Verbier appraisal well."

Which is, I suppose, as I had conjectured a few posts ago. I will have to eat a large slice of humble pie if the well spuds before year end!

[trulyscrumptious] 18/10/2018 13:42

Yes, it's so true mariopeter. And delays may even work to my advantage as there is plenty of time for cheap top ups.

[mariopeter] 18/10/2018 13:34

Love that quote TS !

Hope they make some noises when the prelim seismic comes out.

[hiddendepths] 18/10/2018 11:01

TS - agreed. Delays are endemic in the oil patch but as long as the underlying story hasn't changed and as long as one hasn't been unwise enough to invest for the short term there is no reason whatever to sell.

Although oil exploration has long been a focus for short termers and punters, years of experience have taught me that the real gains are made by good analysis and being very patient.

[trulyscrumptious] 18/10/2018 10:51

Early next year is fine, if any sooner all the better, the oil isn't going anywhere and I gave up fretting over delays ages ago. As the great Indian saint Anandamayi Ma often said, 'what will be, let it be.'

[hiddendepths] 18/10/2018 10:14

Don't get me wrong. I'm not selling a single share as the story is totally intact. I just get fed up being kept in the dark by any company I invest in - or any I used to analyse for a living back in the day.

Hope you're right about the spud date mariopeter. I see why you come to that conclusion. But best case scenarios hardly ever happen in the drilling game. I suppose a 2Q spud would allow Equinor to change their minds about where to drill because the seismic should be pretty much fully interpreted by then.

Good find bullson!

[mariopeter] 18/10/2018 07:12

West Phoenix is contracted for 4 to 5 months (Equnior rns Mar 2018). Ragnfrid North budget is 81 days. Spudded say 3/10/2018. Means budget for next 3 wells including Verbier is 2 months. Pip and Bigfoot must therefore be short wells.

Ragnfrid North budgeted to 23rd December. If that drill finishes before then add on another 5/6 weeks (to drill Pip and Bigfoot) and you will likely get a Verbier spud date

All depends on when drill at Ragnfrid North finishes.

I see February 2019 as worst case for spud at Verbier.




All aboard for the preliminary seismic results in December.

[bullson1] 18/10/2018 01:36

I found this a very interesting read in relation to Equinors position as the future leader in the Northsea and especially since Verbier is mentioned as one of the reasons for it next to the Mariner field and some others coming online til 2023. The report is conducted by GlobalData and was published on the 15th of October and I haven't seen it anywhere else but if one reads between the lines then they already pencilled in Verbier as being a commercial field...and not a small one either as its mentioned right after the Mariner field leading ro Equinors position as top producer in the NS by 2023. To me just another good indicator that we are on the right track and the long term holders got a good chance to be rewarded.

hxxps://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/183663/equinor-to-lead-future-north-sea-production-report-claims/

Good luck!

[xxnjr1] 17/10/2018 23:37

Thanks for sharing that with us HD. Bit odd, but there we go.

[thatsmart1] 17/10/2018 23:24

Take a holiday and forget about it, you may be pleasantly surprised as long as you don't gamble any money on a June spud!

[hiddendepths] 17/10/2018 22:50

Reply received. No change of guidance. Pip and Bigfoot still come ahead of Verbier yet there has been no notification of any change to the planned timing of a spud later this year so it seems our CEO can't be bothered to rectify the apparent anomaly.

Strange but true! My money's on a June spud.

Unimpressed.

[hiddendepths] 17/10/2018 18:34

It's definitely out of JOG's control but last month they told us that spudding was likely this quarter. If that's not the case, they have a legal (and moral) obligation to tell the shareholders. We are, after all, the owners of the company.

[mariopeter] 17/10/2018 13:26

Probably out of JOG control but if drill this year should rns that as I don't really expect it 2018.

[hiddendepths] 17/10/2018 10:42

Quick response from Rebecca Smith. Email passed to Andrew Benitz, our CEO. I'll post up any response, if it seems appropriate to do so. Hopefully I won't inadvertently be made an insider and muzzled! To my mind the best outcome would be a two line update RNS.

[hiddendepths] 17/10/2018 09:31

Dammit - I've sent them an Email. this is bugging me!

[hiddendepths] 17/10/2018 09:20

The point, thatsmart, is that the well could be the third after Ragnfrid North, which could push drilling back as far as the middle of next year.

The 24th July RNS said this....

Jersey Oil & Gas (AIM: JOG), an independent upstream oil and gas company ‎focused on the UK Continental Shelf ("UKCS") region of the North Sea, announces that it has been advised by Equinor UK Limited ("Equinor"), operator of the P.2170 (Blocks 20/5b & 21/1d) licence area (the "P.2170 licence"), that the Verbier appraisal well with the possibility of a sidetrack well will now likely be the third well in the sequence for the UK drilling campaign with the contracted West Phoenix rig as opposed to the first.

As the first UK well won't spud until Ragnfrid North is finished, there could be quite a wait.

The interims on 20th September said

As previously stated Equinor has three wells to drill before drilling Verbier (the Ragnfrid North prospect in the Norwegian sector and the Bigfoot and Pip prospects in the UK sector) and we will notify of any change to current guidance on timing if and when advised of such by Equinor, in its capacity as operator of the drilling programme.



Yet the company also said

The Verbier appraisal well programme is part of a larger Equinor operated drilling campaign and, further to a change in the scheduled drilling order, JOG currently expects Verbier to be drilled in mid to late Q4 2018.


In my view these statements are incompatible, but they do cover themselves.


we will notify of any change to current guidance on timing if and when advised of such by Equinor, in its capacity as operator of the drilling programme.

Maybe someone should pick up a phone and call Equinor! And then tell us whether there's going be a further 6 months to wait!

[thatsmart1] 17/10/2018 08:26

We all like to be kept informed but maybe they don't have anything new to tell us. They said mid to late Q4 but they are not the operator so can only rely on what they have been told. So many other factors come into play beyond their control. They will be able to give some firm information when the rig is ready to move to Verbier. We are over half way through October so only two months or a bit longer to go - I've been here for a month of Sundays so a little while longer is nothing. Besides, I hope they say nothing until the rig is on the way and catch out all those who are waiting to get in but who should have bought NOW!!!
Haha and good luck to everyone, let's hope they prove up a mammoth amount and de-risk even more. Anyone for champagne to float away the grumblies?

[hiddendepths] 16/10/2018 14:18

I'm aware that JOG is implying that Verbier has been bumped up. But they certainly haven't said that. I suppose, like mariopeter, I think a further delay might be useful. The only unsettling thing for me is that lack of clarity, not when the well is likely to spud. I'm a LTH and very happy to wait. But I do like to be kept informed.

[xxnjr1] 16/10/2018 13:07

Ragnfrid North probably a 40 to 65 day well; depending on what they find? Spud on 3/10. JOG therefore implying Verbier is 2nd well in program now. If so, spud will be mid to late Nov, or Dec perhaps?

Whilst "Delivery of a fast track processed 3D seismic dataset volume from the 2018 PGS survey, that overlays Verbier and Cortina, is scheduled for delivery in December 2018. Delivery of the final imaged data from the 3D seismic survey is expected in Q2 2019."

Equinor seem to be content getting on with it. One can only assume they feel fairly confident with the existing data.