Jersey Oil And Gas Share Discussion Threads

[mariopeter] 01/10/2020 08:47

Haha they did not pull out of Buchan as they never owned any part of that license nor did they want to be railroaded into something they did not know enough about in a 3 month window. Also they SOLD out and did not pull out. They sold Verbier having described it as a small field right from the outset. Don't you worry Sunshine they will be keeping a good eye on JOG.

[hsfinch] 01/10/2020 08:15

Equinor pull-out is key. They didn't like what they saw. I'd be surprised if this development ever sees the light of day. Avoid.

[catswhiskas] 30/9/2020 15:45

Great Post mariopeter thanks for posting some big buys today at 110.5 90K and 60K Directors again ?

[mariopeter] 30/9/2020 15:06

Thanks Hcminpastry took a little time to articulate my views. Did tweek it a little.

[hcminpastry] 30/9/2020 14:34

and that, mariopeter is a great post...

[mariopeter] 30/9/2020 14:19

The farm out is for the partner(s) to fund the entire project. No way on this planet can JOG do it. Question is how much can JOG keep. The IRR of the project will be key. Eg say if JOG proven and recoverable oil is valued in the ground at say $1 per recoverable barrel (very very cheap btw) our contribution is $120m. If the production platform costs are $400m then we get to keep 23% of the project and the partners put up the entire $400m in cash. That makes the oil breakeven at 520m/120m ie $4.33 a barrel and anyone can make money on that. This is only a concept example by the way.

JOG are simply de-risking the oil in the ground and working out the best way to roll out the project. They might even be able to negotiate some cash (back costs) for themselves in the farm-out of Buchan.

43 years of production history de-risks Buchan oil (80mmbo)in the Schlumberger model. The only thing that is becoming clear is that the JOG market cap is highly depressed probably because Equinor said goodbye. If you are not in make sure you are if a viable partner comes in. More likely is the partner will buy JOG and get all the recoverable oil AND the prospective oil AND the team for something less than the $120m in my example above especially as we dither around a £22m market cap. This will rocket (if we are not already taken out) if a viable partner comes in after the assets continue to be de-risked. Apache Oil have just moved in south east of our license in the last OGA round. If they find oil on their new licence how long do you think JOG and the hub will last with a market cap of £22m?.

Other things that are likely to happen, while we wait, is some of the satellites could be farmed out (for share of back costs) and they are drill ready etc etc. The oil industry is far from dead. It does need to change to green oil and oh look we will be green oil too. Green gold. A fabulous management will see this through and I feel we have that. Question of timing in due course and lots of opportunity ahead.

I can wait but others fret over a reducing positive bank balance but are missing the numbers on a very big picture. SO if we have to issue another 10m shares at £2/£3/£4 £who knows (after news), I doubt any holder today will care. Maybe 120mmbo 2C green resources and the additional 200mmbo prospective in the UK North Sea will be ignored by the oil industry and JOG get liquidated. If you think that you are probably in the wrong investment. Our CEO (a former stockbroker) knows how to drive a share price before any rights issue.

Shell's problems must stem from the fact that their cost of oil breakeven is too high, way above what my example above shows.

[kakapo1] 30/9/2020 09:28

catsWhiskas,, hsfinch makes some very good points which should not be ignored. Yes the company were saying a few months ago "fully funded until end 2021", now, and do read the interim report as financing has changed and we are now being told "FO/Funding in Q1 2021" So wait for something end this year early New Year. Funding of infrastructure re-generation at GBA is going to be enormous. Just research cost of a new platform!

Royal Dutch Shell's statement today should serve as a warning signal to ALL Oilers.

[hsfinch] 30/9/2020 06:58

It's taken them over a year and £8million to work out they need a jacket! And a similar amount left in the bank. Cash raise required ASAP. How much is the field development gonna cost? A billion? Not sure who's gonna put their hand up for that at the moment? Equinor clearly wasn't interested. If oil stays low JOG will struggle whilst spending funds and diluting shareholders. Avoid.

[catswhiskas] 29/9/2020 22:28

Day Traders should avoid this stock at the moment the Legal and General stock hasnt cleared there is probably around 2% left thats 450K shares still to clear.Thats why it retraced very quickly today working out quite costly for some 17018 bought 121 sold 112.5..Don't give up the day job !

[mariopeter] 29/9/2020 16:45

Agreed but will not be at these low levels otherwise they would be better selling the assets.

[kakapo1] 29/9/2020 16:20

Cash in bank true and oil underground and No revenue likely for 4 years at least. Wait for the wizz-kids to examine finances, funding one way or another will be needed early next year to progress the considerable re-generation of GBA. Even retaining 20-25% what are PI's likely to be asked to fund?

Oilers both producing and not have a challenging future.

[master rsi] 29/9/2020 14:55

They do have some cash, when many others are borrowing large sums
but the others are producing so they have revenues, at a lower Oil price now, so not helping.

JOG has no revenues and all the loses are administrative, so no matter if Oil price rise, the revenues are going to be "CERO" for the moment being, and the cash will be slowly eating its way through the bank balances.

[rbonnier] 29/9/2020 14:24

They will all be selling at a loss soon

[catchingmice] 29/9/2020 13:45

These sellers that come in on 1st signs of a rise are absolute muppetsI hope one day this does a 100%-200% rise of which it is capable of doing and all these muppets cannot get back in unless they pay multiples of the share price

[mariopeter] 29/9/2020 12:05

Thanks Masterrsi. A hell of a lot stronger than many others don't you think.

[chessman2] 29/9/2020 11:36

I’m very happy with my investment here. Everything is slowly building up and in due course we will see the fruits of the directors’ labours.

JOG is clearly one to hold for a successful financial future.

[master rsi] 29/9/2020 10:58

WHAT ABOUT THE NEGATIVE

The company says: "strong cash position £8,8m"
they have used £7,7m during the last year or £3,5m on the last 6 month on loses of (1,168,529) on the last 6 month

LOSS FOR THE PERIOD (1,168,529) Period ended 30 June 2020 30/06/20 30/06/19 31/12/19 (unaudited) (unaudited) (audited) GBP GBP GBP Cash and cash equivalents 8,881,309 15,527,814 12,318,536

[paleje] 29/9/2020 10:56

Malcy has a positive commentary on it:-



Interims from JOG this morning, the only key number is the strong cash position of £8.9m at the year end which is £1m ahead due to cost discipline. The key highlights in the period include ‘significant progress in respect of the Concept Selection work for the Company’s flagship Greater Buchan Area development project’.

This includes selection of the preferred development concept, a new production facility at the Buchan platform meaning that they will be able to accommodate fluids from nearby platforms via subsea tie-backs and export of hydrocarbons will be via pipeline to existing nearby infrastructure.

Enhanced subsurface understanding means P50 technically recoverable 2C resources of more than 138 MMstb and P50 prospective resources of over 200 MMstb. What is most comforting is that the Buchan oil field has been dynamically modelled and history-matched to 36 years of production data

It should also be borne in mind that there is also a significant exploration portfolio with 4 drill-ready exploration prospects with combined P50 prospective resources of 196 MMstb, in close proximity to the planned Buchan hub. Also JOG has added ownership to their GBA portfolio in recent months through acquisitions and a recent licence award.

As we look ahead JOG has a lot of interesting progress to report, expect finalisation of the development plan for GBA, an update on the ‘exciting near field exploration potential’ showing very decent upside and of course the launch of the planned GBA funding/farm-out process expected in Q1 2021.

Andrew Benitz, CEO of Jersey Oil & Gas, commented:

“The Greater Buchan Area is a multi-faceted project and it is exciting to see the results of the hard work of our project team now coming together. Work is ongoing to finalise the development plan of our core project, with optimisation work on production phasing and on decisions regarding area collaboration, both for production volumes and power solutions.

JOG is clearly in a very good place and much work has been done over the summer which is a tribute given the COVID-19 setbacks. The management have shown that the company has a substantial and extremely valuable hub at Buchan and shareholders should be very pleased with today’s update.

[mariopeter] 29/9/2020 10:40

1.Schlumberger working on Buchan is just the job really. Can't get a stronger blessing on what is left there (on top of the two CPRs)

2.Electrification from onshore and sub-selling to others is neat and lends more weight to the project bringing even more support from the Oil and Gas Authority.

3.Seem very prudent/realistic on satellite sizes.

I do wonder with this market cap whether we might be taken out before farm-outs start Q1 2021 with 80mmbo recoverable at Buchan alone with tons of historical flow and drill data and seismic to support that.

The size of investment is important but not as important as the IRR of the project and the question is what will that be in a background where we could have negative interest rates. If the IRR matches BPs requirements then they will have a look,at least, as they have declared this type of project is their future ie near existing infrastructure and everyone in the world loves the North Sea and associated UK law.

The attractiveness of the hub is increasing and frankly if we are left only with 20% of the project who cares assuming we are not taken out. Holding tight here as the risks lower.

[catchingmice] 29/9/2020 10:20

Always a few planks that sell into a rise can't hold longer than a tea break

[catchingmice] 29/9/2020 08:53

He always get's it wrong I'll stick by my forecast that this will be 3 Quid per/share year end.The stock is atleast a 2-3yr hold possibly 4-5yrOnly patience in this will reward the patient

[kibes] 29/9/2020 08:36

RBonnier well I think you got that one wrong. Price now 117p to buy.