Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[highly geared] 02/10/2018 14:15

The move up has hardly started ITC. If everything comes together and oil stays above $80 for a prolonged period, Zengas valuation of 200p will look conservative. Potential 5 bagger over 18 months from here as materially undervalued to NPV of assets.

[ifthecapfits] 02/10/2018 13:13

Well done holders. I had this on my watch list and was waiting funds to arrive. Annoying.

[mount teide] 02/10/2018 12:47

L2: 3(45,000) v 1(7,500) / 43.0p v 44.0p

[mount teide] 02/10/2018 12:06

L2: 3 v 1 / 42.6p v 43.0p (2 on 44.0p rest of 44.6p or above)

[zengas] 02/10/2018 07:59

With oil at $80+ there is an even greater disconnect re value.

Montara and Stag are now significant cash cows and no doubt that this will now help in getting further acquisitions from the majors offloading non core Asian fields of both production and existing discoveries.

Investor presentation valuation of some £655m based on $66/b for 2018, $67/b 2019 and $68/b thereafter (page 6).

Montara NPV $479.5m (£355m).
Stag $84.2m (£62m).
Nam Du $226m (£167m).
U Minh $96m (£71m).
Total $885.7m (£655m). Excludes OK PSC. Using ex rate £1=$1.35.
Very significant $3billion adjustment to offset re Montara.



At $66-$68/b oil - the £655m valuation is 142p/share.

Ogan Komerang 1155 km2 PSC to be ratified this quarter which is a sizeable producing asset and which isn't included in the CPR nor in the valuation.

Should be a 20% uplift in forward production numbers from infill drilling and new reserves classification across Montara/Stag.

With 'OK' production PSC to come and 2 other assets in the portfolio with no CPR valaution + a further acqusition this imo has potential for 200p of value creation using just the $66-$68/b oil price range.

[highly geared] 02/10/2018 07:52

Read the header notes which are extracted from the latest JSE presentation. £655 million NPV versus a current market cap around £200 million.
JSE will drive operational efficiencies at Montara and their other assets + we will see cash flow / profit leverage from the high POO if it remains over $80.
JSE are pumping c 14,000Bopd from the Aus assets and this will increase over the next 6 months in line with the FDP. 14,000 x $80 x 300 ( days)= $336,000,000 gross revenue...

[wanobi] 01/10/2018 21:48

Brasso3, I don't think you've posted on JSE so I'll continue to post here if that's ok with you? Thanks, cheers Wan

[wanobi] 01/10/2018 21:23

thanx MT, will look at those to start with, cheers Wan

basem1, bit strong but fair enough, sorry to have upset you once again.

best to all, cheers Wan

[mount teide] 01/10/2018 21:18

Wanobi - the Oil and Gas Conference Presentation and Investor Presentation links in the header should provide a useful starting point together with the content of the header.

[wanobi] 01/10/2018 19:48

Hi MT,

Also,

Please can you tell me in a nutshell why JSE is a buy right now??
Most appreciated, thanks, cheers Wan

Apologies for the laziness and my direct question, it just seems that you are the most knowledgeable here and I've always tended to rely on local knowledge!!

I fully understand if you tell me to bog off and do some research; thing is, I don't have a lot of time to do that with so many seemingly great investment opportunities on offer...

Another intriguing one!

Thanx
Cheers
Wan

[mount teide] 01/10/2018 19:41

Brent flying up 3% to $85.28

Jadestone will be getting close to $88 with the regional premium.

Montara purchase timing is looking prescient - JSE will almost certainly have initiated discussions to discuss terms on/before the effective start date when Brent was $55-$60 - which is likely to have heavily influenced the purchase price.

[highly geared] 01/10/2018 18:28

With Montara acquired, profit seriously leveraged if Brent continues up toward $100. Asset purchase impeccably timed!

[mount teide] 01/10/2018 16:31

Brent surges to $84.50

[highly geared] 01/10/2018 12:46

Still trading at less than 1/3 net present value. With Montara at 100% ownership, the gap should start to close.

[puzzler2] 01/10/2018 12:40

Duplicate post

[puzzler2] 01/10/2018 12:39

Added earlier today

[walter walcarpets] 01/10/2018 12:08

Also picked up a few this morning. Thanks MT for thread and info.

[mount teide] 01/10/2018 11:58

Welcome aboard Mr T.

L2 continuing to strengthen: 1 v 2 / 42.0p v 43.0p

[highly geared] 01/10/2018 11:57

Very much under the radar but the smart money will be buying...
Cash generation at 15,000bopd with Brent above $80…

[mr. t] 01/10/2018 11:47

I've bought some JSE the last few days. Thanks all for the thread and useful info.

[zengas] 01/10/2018 08:35

Thanks for the new thread MT with the charts that some requested. Only just found this one after being in here from UK listing and time spent over on the other very quiet thread. Didn't think too many had noticed Jadestone.

[highly geared] 01/10/2018 07:43

Got these at 37p and see 3x upside in 12 months if all goes well. POO means good producers are in a real sweet spot for cash generation.