Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 24/1/2020 07:55

Stock market analysts' top picks beaten by the stocks they told you to sell… for the fourth year in a row - lol!

Considering 95% of these so called 'equity market experts' cannot even beat the index they track four years in five, what do you expect?


Stocks which professional analysts recommended investors should sell performed better than those which were slapped with a "buy" rating for the fourth year in a row in 2019. - Telegraph

Looking at the FTSE 350 – an index of the largest 350 companies in Britain – broker AJ Bell found that the stocks the experts expected to drop in value generated returns of 29pc on average in 2019. Their top picks made 23pc.

The only saving grace was that this was higher than the overall index, which made 19pc, breaking a record of four consecutive years of failing to top the market average.

The biggest flop was Sirius Minerals, the fertiliser company with a planned mine in Yorkshire. All analysts recommended buying the shares at the start of 2019, but investors would have lost 83pc of their money over the course of the year.

The company has struggled to fund the project and miner Anglo American has now made a £405m bid for the company.

As the below table shows, there were some successes, however. Piping and heating company Polypipe would have returned 69pc in 2019. All of the analysts tracked recommended investors should buy the stock at the start of the year.

Cybersecurity firm Avast, another stock that all analysts said to buy, would have made investors a return of 63pc last year.

However, half of analysts recommended selling Frasers Group, the retail giant owned by Newcastle United owner Mike Ashley formerly known as Sports Direct. In the past year it returned 93pc. Mr Ashley has long had a fractious relationship with the City, and infuriated analysts in 2019 by repeatedly delaying publication of its annual results.

There were numerous big errors on the sell side. Some 43pc of analysts thought IWG, formerly Regus, would struggle, yet the office space firm and WeWork rival made 111pc in 2019.

However, as the below table shows, the stocks with the most sell recommendations – education firm Pearson and retailer Marks & Spencer – both lost investors money, costing them 30pc and 5pc respectively.

Russ Mould of AJ Bell said that analyst research and commentary is valuable but the ratings themselves need to taken with caution.

He said: “It just shows how hard picking individual stocks can be, even if it is your full-time job."

The analysts deserve some slack as the market is difficult to predict, Mr Mould added, with more takeovers propelling a strong year for stocks across the world.

He said: “Putting up sell ratings is therefore a potentially thankless task and at least the analysts’ combined top picks did beat the index, something that they had failed to do in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018.”

Entering 2020, these analysts now have near-record lows for the number of buy ratings on stocks for five years, and near-record high sell ratings. (Sounds like a contrarian indicator if ever there was one!)

Mr Mould said: “Some may be cheeky enough to think it is a good time to buy, even if logically there should be fewer buys and more sells the higher headline indices go.” '

[gymratt] 23/1/2020 14:36

Nibbled another 5k @ 80.15p

[fanshaw] 23/1/2020 10:47

Which exchange does Jadestone operate on. Thank you

[zeusfurla] 23/1/2020 10:14

Stiefel now switched from offer to bid after a week of selling. Could be a change of direction coming in share price

[mount teide] 23/1/2020 10:12

NAV

Operating Assets
92p - Montara and Stag / 2P
30p - Maari 2P

Assets due for near term development
7p - Two Montara Infill Wells / Q2-3 2020

Assets due for near term sanctioning
40p - Nam Du & U Minh / 2C Resource
13p - Nam Du South Channel / Management Estimate

Nam Du South Channel - the intention is to drill this prospect during the early stages of the Vietnam Phase 1 Nat Gas Asset Development Programme - if successful, the well would be developed for early production - management believe their analysis of the seismic points to a high chance of success).

[onedayrodders] 23/1/2020 09:47

Doesn't look like shares mag has the clout it used to many years ago

[mount teide] 23/1/2020 09:33

An estimate of Jadestone's current realised oil price:

$62.50 - Brent
$70.02 - Montara
$86.50 - Stag
$74.01 - Jadestone Overall average - Montara & Stag
$11.51 - Jadestone Average Premium to Brent
$11.15 - Santos O&G - Average Q4 premium to Brent

$19.00 - Jadestone Est OPEX/bbl
$55.00 - Jadestone Est Operating Cash Flow/bbl

Assumptions:
$69.5 - Montara Oil Hedge on circa 5,000 bopd
$5.5/bbl - Estimated current Montara Oil sales premium to Brent
$24/bbl - Estimated current Stag oil sales premium to Brent
Montara Production: 12,000 bopd - Q4 entry figure
Stag Production: 3,850 bopd - Q4 entry figure

[bluerunner] 23/1/2020 09:30

Off topic but Shares Mag is free to AJ Bell investors. I have recently cancelled IC as I find it poor.However, JSE is now covered by both publications. From my perspective, SM are more informed on the potential upside at JSE.

[mount teide] 23/1/2020 09:20

The Stag oil price premium data in the Jan 2020 presentation is from the last lift in November 2019 - a month following that the next Pyrenees cargo went to market and was sold at a $17 premium to Brent.

The next Stag cargo is likely to be in early/mid Feb and will probably be currently under tender - itv would be reasonable to suspect for a rate more than double the November premium going by prices achieved by recent Pyrenees and Van Gogh cargoes.

[saucepan] 23/1/2020 09:20

Shares Magazine has a very small readership these days.

[homebrewruss] 23/1/2020 09:07

I'm not complaining.
I locked myself out of my wife's SIPP account before making a single trade. Seems the best investment 'decision' I could have made assuming I get the chance to buy JSE around these levels :)

[investorsiba] 23/1/2020 09:04

Certainly pleasing but if jse had been tipped surely there would be a buying stampede this amConfused

[homebrewruss] 23/1/2020 08:43

JSE (& RRE) tipped in shares mag today:
'Jadestone Energy (JSE:AIM) 83p BUY

The brains behind this Asia Pacific oil and gas play have an impressive track record. In particular chief executive Paul Blakeley who, at Canadian outfit Talisman Energy, built a business which became the UK North Sea’s second largest operator with upwards of 160,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day production.

He then moved to Asia and delivered a business on a similar scale for Talisman before the group was bought by Spain’s Repsol in an $8.3bn deal in 2015.

In both cases Blakeley’s strategy involved hoovering up unwanted assets from major oil and gas companies. Jadestone is pursuing a similar approach.

Having already picked up assets in Indonesia, Australia and Vietnam its latest acquisition in November 2019 was the $50m purchase of the Maari field in New Zealand from Hungarian firm OMV.

Investment bank Stifel spells out the attractive metrics of this deal: ‘We estimate $74m free cash flow net to Jadestone across 2019 and 2020 – having generated around $40m free cash flow in 2018 net to OMV – so the field is very likely to have paid for itself even before the transaction has completed.’

Blakeley tells Shares that the region is attractive as it is ‘energy hungry and has a low cost profile’. The company plans to pay out up to $12.5m in dividends in 2020 which would add up to a prospective yield of 2.6%.'

[bubblingup] 23/1/2020 08:32

Happy Lunar New Year from Jadestone, nice touch.

My wife liked the pics so much she put them on her phone; maybe I can tell her soon how much we are invested here!

[croasdalelfc] 23/1/2020 08:18

I can't see anything new on ppt other than resetting the current share price we await the FDP sanction and a corporate update - time to buy

[blueeyes13] 23/1/2020 07:16

Thank you Lauders...I think I'll have to buy some more after reading that!! :-)

[homebrewruss] 23/1/2020 06:54

Thanks Lauders, Maari looks to be a great acquisition with lots of upside.

[lauders] 23/1/2020 01:49

Don't think it has been mentioned yet here but there appears to be a new (dated 15th January per share price on slide 6?) presentation on JSE's website:

Activity on 8 identified leads beginning at Montara.
US$ 11.40/bbl premium on oil from Stag
Looks like NZ could be the focus of more deals in future.
Some action due in 2020 in Indonesia at OK and in the Philippines at SC56?
Still trading at a DEEP DISCOUNT to NAV (~82p vs. 200-250p) per slide 20.

All looks good to me!

[mount teide] 22/1/2020 20:45

Australian Santos O&G - Q4/2019 Results

'The average realised oil price in the quarter was significantly higher than the average Dated Brent due to Santos’ high quality crudes in Western Australia and the Cooper Basin commanding strong premiums.'

Cooper Basin is a ultra low sulphur light sweet crude oil and the Western Australian production is heavy sweet crude oil. The Cooper Basin fields were responsible for the majority of Santos' Q4 oil production of 40,815 bopd.

The trend in the average realised price of Santos' crude oil production makes interesting reading:

$73.49/bbl - Q4 ave realised price
$62.75/bbl - Q4 ave Brent price
$11.15/bbl - overall premium to Brent

$70.22/bbl - Q3 ave realised price
$61.60/bbl - Q3 ave Brent price
$8.52/bbl - overall premium to Brent

$68.81/bbl - Q4/2018 ave realised price
$67.85/bbl - Q4/2018 ave Brent price
$0.96/bbl - overall premium to Brent

The IMO 2020 premium generated an additional $41.5 million of revenue in Q4/2019 for Santos' low sulphur production compared to Brent.

Heavy sweet and light sweet crude prices increased strongly during Q4/2019 in the run up to IMO 2020 - so, the premium to Brent in Q1/2020 is on target to be significantly higher than Q4/2019.

Santos averaged $9.07 mmBtu for their Q4/2019 LNG production down from $10.04 in Q3/2019. They got an average of $9.77 mmBtu for 2019 down slightly from $9.91 in 2018.

[mad foetus] 22/1/2020 15:41

There was an update on 28 Jan last year, would be good to get one this year

[mount teide] 22/1/2020 15:31

TFC - that's around $91/bbl - a circa $10 discount to the current LSFO price in Singapore.

Considering where the Stag oil pricing has been relative to Pyrenees and Van Gogh over the last three months - Stag should be getting around a mid twenties/bbl premium to Brent.

The last Stag lift was mid November, so the sales tender for the next cargo is probably underway currently, if not complete.

[thefartingcommie] 22/1/2020 15:17

Asia-pacific Crude

Mitsui has bought a cargo of Van Gogh crude at a large premium to meet shippers' demand for low-sulphur fuel, trade sources said.

It bought the 300,000-barrel cargo for March-loading at a premium of $27-$28 a barrel to dated Brent from Inpex, the sources said.

The deal could not be independently verified as the companies do not comment on deals.

Japanese traders Mitsui and PetroSummit have paid record premiums to secure Australian heavy sweet crude supplies in recent months. ...

The trading companies blend the crude with other fuel to produce Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO), a new ship fuel containing 0.5% sulphur, which meets emission rules set by the International Maritime Organization that took effect this month.

[mount teide] 21/1/2020 20:48

Commodity Tracker - Hellenic Shipping today

Aussie crude grades command high premium in IMO 2020 setting



'What’s happening?
Australian heavy sweet crudes including Pyrenees and Van Gogh are widely seen as ideal for blending into low sulfur marine fuels due to the grades’ rich fuel oil yield, very low sulfur content and unique specifications such as low pour point and high flash point, industry and Asian refinery sources have told Platts.

With demand for low sulfur fuel oil outpacing supply in Singapore, the world’s biggest bunkering hub, the price of Marine Fuel 0.5% has spiked by more than 185% month on month, Platts data showed.

What’s next?
Australia looks set to reap the benefits of the International Maritime Organization’s global sulfur cap as the country’s heavy sweet crude oil is widely considered one of the best feedstocks for making IMO-compliant marine fuels – and many Asian refiners are willing to pay lofty spot premiums for it.

Australian oil and gas producer Santos recently sold a 550,000-barrel cargo of Pyrenees crude for loading over March 4-8 to a Japanese buyer at a premium of around $31/b to Platts Dated Brent crude assessments on an FOB basis, essentially making the Australian oil the most expensive grade in the world.

Asian refiners will likely compete for more Australian heavy sweet crude oil, with several cargoes of Van Gogh crude for loading in March up for grabs this week in the regional spot market.'