Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 18/1/2020 14:20

Sp93 'I also checked the condensate/gas ration (CGR) because liquids yield in a gas reservoir makes it more valuable (decreases the BOE ratio). However, the gas is lean, and ERCE did not include any condensate in their reserves calculations.

That's interesting of ERCE - considering the Vietnam Project FPSO specification that Jadestone went out to the shipping market with contained a condensate storage facility with off-take to tanker.

[fardels bear] 18/1/2020 14:12

Remoaners united will never be defeated.

[mount teide] 18/1/2020 13:30

Put the last post on 3 other Advfn threads - it appears the poster who gave it the thumbs down went to the trouble to visit the other three threads to do likewise!

Surely, even in this social media obsessed world, life is too short to waste time on such inane behaviour?

[mount teide] 18/1/2020 12:26

Like most things in the EU reality is often quite different from the rhetoric - "The European Union is determined to lead the way in the global response to climate change."

So, how is the EU - the great 'champions' of renewable energy to address the "catastrophic" impact of climate change - doing to reduce fossil fuel consumption:

EU Fossil fuel consumption 2017

31.8% - Oil
24.6% - Gas
15.4% - Coal (In Germany its 40% and Poland 80%)
13.9% - Nuclear
13.9% - Renewable

Fossil fuels have continued to dominate primary energy consumption in the EU since 2005, falling a minuscule and frankly laughable(considering the lead the world rhetoric to reduce consumption) 6% from 78% in 2005 to 72% by 2017.

Never has so little(-6% over 12 years) been done for so many(500 million) by so few(The EU)!

Source: European Environment Agency

[mount teide] 18/1/2020 09:34

With Brent falling back to $64.5 from over $70.0 last week marine fuel oil pricing (MGO and LSFO) has followed this move down, while HSFO has largely moved sideways.

MGO
$113 - Fujairah
$107 - Global Average
$102 - Singapore

LSFO
$100 - Global Average
$100 - Singapore
$103 - Fujairah

HSFO
$61 - Global Average
$56 - Singapore
$47 - Fujairah

Singapore: current LSFO/HSFO spread has eased to $44 from $51

At $64.5 Brent - Stag's $11.5 premium to Brent achieved at the last publicly notified lift in November 2019, would currently be at a circa $24 discount to the present $100 Singapore LSFO price.

[mount teide] 18/1/2020 08:55

be13 - thanks - Livermore's +137.52% portfolio performance in 2019 is incredible.

'The returns generated come from deep methodical research, excellent timing, and of course, a little bit of luck. I never said we are the smartest or largest, just striving to be the best. Yet, our value-based approach is proving itself.' CEO David Nauhauser

Livermore Fund Performance 2016 - 2019
2016 + 85%
2017 - 7%
2018 + 14%
2019 + 138%

The fund has turned $100 into $467 in 4 years - a CAGR of 47%

For comparison, since 1/1/2016 the FTSE 100 has returned +23% (CAGR: 5.4%) and the S&P 500 +62%(CAGR: 12.8%)

Jadestone Energy is the fund's largest energy holding.

[blueeyes13] 18/1/2020 02:41

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4317649-2019-fourth-quarter-livermore-partners-report?source=tweetAlways good to read the Livermore quarterly report. They smashed it in 2019. JSE core holding for them.

[mount teide] 17/1/2020 19:46

A total of circa 1.8 million printed after the final bell - that's 7 million shares that's changed hands in the last 3 days and over 14 million during the last 7 days.

[fardels bear] 17/1/2020 17:26

No pretend reason either.

[russiaguru] 17/1/2020 17:12

70p looks a good target although no real reason for it to fall that far

[gymratt] 17/1/2020 16:26

Took another 5k ,showing as a sell.

[gymratt] 17/1/2020 16:21

Thank you, bamboo.

[bamboo2] 17/1/2020 14:28

Gymratt, a previous post referred to the two current patterns, a small H&S and a flag/pennant. It looks like the H&S was confirmed, and has now hit its tp [82].
82p is a 50% retrace on the recent rise.

The mid price based chart suggests a potential turn today. The last market price based chart suggests a turn 20/1/2020 Prior down trend means we should see a low turn, assuming a turn materialises.

I can see what you mean about the potential for a larger H&S pattern, but we would need to let some time go by to see evidence of the development of a rh armpit/shoulder.

There is major upsloping trendline support at 80.5, 50sma support at 77, horizontal historical support is 78/73.5/70.5

[thegreatgeraldo] 17/1/2020 14:01

3 large trades @82p..... the 2 smaller ones add up to the the largest.....

[gymratt] 17/1/2020 13:23

What's your chart saying, bamboo? Is there a chance of a 'head and shoulders' forming at 70p ish?

[gymratt] 17/1/2020 13:20

I tend to agree with you, investorsiba. I mistimed my recent top-up, but have kept some dry powder in case of any future opportunities. I'll back the truck up uf it drops into the 70s!

[investorsiba] 17/1/2020 11:37

Hold and wait - don't go to the seller - wait for the seller to cause a lower spAfhp had a similar issue, 2.70 three months ago, four pounds today

[mount teide] 17/1/2020 11:34

L2: Berenberg are again on the offer - after clearing a big line of stock they appear to have found more.

[lauders] 17/1/2020 10:18

Jadestone plans to use a jack-up drilling rig for the operation. The rig will be towed to the drilling sites by two or three support vessels.

The Skua-12 site is an undisturbed site approximately 20 km from the Montara WHP and the Skua-10 site is an existing well, while the H6 development well and H3 workover will be undertaken when the rig is positioned alongside the Montara WHP. The MODU will cantilever the drill floor over the WHP to allow positioning the MODU’s drill center over the H6 and H3 slots.

Jadestone's drilling plans are currently being assessed by the country's offshore oil and gas safety regulator NOPSEMA

[mount teide] 16/1/2020 20:43

Thanks for reminding us of the CO2 content - forgotten that.

PetroVietnam Gas say there's 6tcf of stranded nat gas in just one block close to Tho Cu, that the pipeline was planned to service. Presumably the development of discoveries of that size would require investment in substantial new gas handling capacity?

[spangle93] 16/1/2020 19:50

MT - Tho Chu has up to 83% (!!) CO2 in some reservoirs and around 15-20% in the better ones, so it's possible it also means suspended awaiting sufficient spare capacity in a plant that can handle these impurities.

[mount teide] 16/1/2020 18:28

The Vietnam Tho Chu discovery has 63.7m boe of 2C resources - more than double Nam Du and U Minh combined.

Its current status is described as 'Suspended development awaiting ullage'

I assume this means suspended awaiting spare capacity to become available in the subsea gas pipeline system.

Interestingly, the latest website presentation shows a new gas pipeline planned for development passing within 20km of Tho Chu - offering a possible early development opportunity for this gas asset too.

[spangle93] 16/1/2020 18:12

Thanks - I read it as billion BOE, then realised either your calculator had a serious problem or you'd meant something else.

Thanks too for alerting the board that a blind equivalence to "5.8" should always be questioned, especially when gas producers are trying to big up the value of their reserves. For example, right now in the Gulf States, with Henry Hub just above 2.00/MMBtu and WTI just below $60/bbl, the "BOE" value relationship from production is not 5.8 but around 30, which is about as extreme as I can remember.

In Vietnam, where gas prices are significant more lucrative to producers,the differential isn't so great.

I also checked the condensate/gas ration (CGR) because liquids yield in a gas reservoir makes it more valuable (decreases the BOE ratio). However, the gas is lean, and ERCE did not include any condensate in their reserves calculations.

[mount teide] 16/1/2020 16:26

sp93 - Barrels of oil equivalent - after taking the nat gas contract price into
consideration and 5,800 cubic feet of natural gas being equivalent to one BOE.

$9 x 5.8 = $52.2