Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 16/1/2020 09:51

The 1.068m sell this morning at 82p may have marked the bottom of this pullback - the buy transaction prices since have been on a rising trend towards the current 82.5p full offer.

L2: opened at 1 v 2 / 82.0p v 82.5p then following the large sell transaction moved to 1 v 1, then progressively to the current 3 v 1 / 82.0p v 82.5p (then 1 x 83.0p and 83.5p, with the rest spread between 85p and 87p)

Added a few more.

[croasdalelfc] 15/1/2020 21:52

Their Tui field pumped just 2200 bopd and at least one drill was a dry hole - looks a basket case on first glance

[croasdalelfc] 15/1/2020 21:49

Tamarind Taranaki in administration/liquidation leaving large debts and decomm costs - not sure how much oil they pumped

[fuzzle] 15/1/2020 20:57

hxxps://www.stuff.co.nz/business/117770715/tamarind-taranaki-told-to-stop-pumping-oil-from-offshore-field-until-conditions-met

perhaps a prospect ?

[mount teide] 15/1/2020 20:54

Estimated annual operating cash flow of the Vietnam Nat Gas Assets - Phase 1 - First Production Q1/2022

'The agreed daily contract quantity (“DCQ”) is established as 80 mmcf/d(13,791 bboe/d) targeting a minimum plateau period of 55 months. In addition to the DCQ, the HOA specifies certain take-or-pay provisions, in addition to a pricing formula in principle, all of which will be finalised in the ultimate gas sales and purchase agreement (“GSPA”).'

1 bboe = 5.8 MMBtu (which at $9/MMBTU would be equal to $52.2/bboe).
So, 13,791 bboe/d at $52.2/bboe would be equivalent to 10,540 bopd at $68 Brent).

Our estimated operating costs are in the range of $15-$20/bopd(using the above equivalent figure).

This suggests circa $50/bbl operating cash flow at the $68/bbl Brent equivalent - circa $192m/year and $882m over the 55 month minimum plateau period.

Capital costs were estimated at $200m with a chartered FPSO.

Assumptions: FPSO = a converted tanker - 18 months to convert - since shipyards are currently experiencing a dearth of orders for new buildings of any type/class of ship.

Any thoughts?

[pastybap] 15/1/2020 16:18

I feel your pain. They're now my 3 largest holdings!

[thegreatgeraldo] 15/1/2020 16:08

Very quiet in Toronto so far

[homebrewruss] 15/1/2020 16:05

Quite a few of my stocks are down like this the last few days, JSE, PTAL, GAN for example.
The charts look similar, probably in part due to the end of the santa rally - they all took off around the time of the election result, now due a bit of consolidation.

[fardels bear] 15/1/2020 15:45

Does seem rather overdone, under the circs.

[mount teide] 15/1/2020 13:39

Been adding a few more today at circa 83.5p.

Aside from the two days of high volume late last week generated by some large II to II mid trades, the share price has been pulling back mostly on low volume - not altogether unexpected after a such a strong run up(+81%) in Q4.

Berenberg have controlled the offer this week and most of last - currently at 83.5p they're again way out of sync with the rest of the market - Peel is on 84.5p and the rest spread between 86p and 89p

Worth looking back occasionally at where the business was a few years ago to get a feel for what this management can achieve over that timeframe.

AIMHO/DYOR

[gymratt] 15/1/2020 12:53

Any improvement in Level 2 , MT?
Someone mopping up with 50k chunks..

[investorsiba] 15/1/2020 08:50

Sometimes better off waiting for the seller to exhaust themselves and blue shoots than buying in early

[volsung] 15/1/2020 08:38

My top up a tad premature I see

[gymratt] 15/1/2020 08:03

Added 10k @ 86.375 showing as a sell.

[zzxqry] 14/1/2020 22:45

More lines on that chart than prince philips boat.

[bamboo2] 14/1/2020 22:44

Support holding at approx. 86.5
Slight possibility this could morph into a small H&S pattern tp approx. 82, but I think a pennant or flag is the dominant pattern of the two.
The current pennant eod close low was probably yesterday, with next potential turn around 17/1/2020
Historical resistance approx. 93.5, eod close above targets approx. 111.3
gla

[mount teide] 14/1/2020 21:38

Maari - in Q3/2019 - oil liftings/sales were only 48% of production so Q4 should be a strong month for cash flow generation.

[mo2550] 14/1/2020 21:18

Up 4.8 tsx nudged up 424300 trade

[mount teide] 14/1/2020 17:54

One of the operating attractions of the O&G basins of SE Asia and the Pacific Rim to E&P companies and the staff that man the offshore producing facilities, FPSO's, drilling rigs, platform supply boats, anchor handlers and rig tow vessels:

AVERAGE sea area wind speed over the 6 winter months:

6.9 kts - Montara - Force 2

10.7 kts - Stag - Force 3

14.1 kts - Maari - Force 4

18.3 kts - Forties Field / North Sea - Force 5

22.8 kts - West of Shetland - Force 6

[mount teide] 14/1/2020 16:12

L2 strengthening: 2 v 1 / 86.5p v 87.0p (rest spread between 89p and 93p).

Joint House broker Stefil has moved up onto the bid for the first time in a few weeks.

[saucepan] 14/1/2020 15:11

A welcome tick up. It has been a while. Only of academic interest, however, in the grand scheme of things.

[volsung] 14/1/2020 13:15

Added a few on this dip. can see us hitting 100p ere long

[mount teide] 14/1/2020 10:25

"Australian crudes, light or heavy, are the sweetest grades you could ever find. They typically have a sulfur content of less than 0.3%-0.4%, which means [some of the country's] heavy grades could go straight into the low sulfur marine fuels blending pool," said a crude trading manager at Beijing-based Chinaoil, a trading arm of state-run PetroChina.


S&P Global Platts - Analysis: Australia's heavy sweet crudes reap rich rewards in IMO 2020 era

'Australia looks set to reap the benefits of the International Maritime Organization's global sulfur cap as the country's heavy sweet crude oil is widely considered one of the best feedstocks for making IMO-compliant marine fuels -- and many Asian refiners are willing to pay lofty spot premiums for it.

Multiple Australian heavy sweet crude grades have seen their spot price differentials spike to record highs in recent weeks, reflecting the boost in demand for low sulfur fuel oil after the IMO's sulfur cap on bunker fuels was imposed from January 1.

Australian oil and gas producer Santos recently sold a 550,000-barrel cargo of Pyrenees crude for loading over March 4-8 to a Japanese buyer at a premium of around $31/b to Platts Dated Brent crude assessments on an FOB basis, the highest premium on record for the heavy sweet Australian grade, S&P Global Platts reported last week.

With demand for LSFO outpacing supply in Singapore, the world's biggest bunkering hub, the price of Marine Fuel 0.5% has spiked by more than 185% month on month.

Singapore is expected to be short of low sulfur fuel oil with maximum 0.5% sulfur as supplies currently average around 2 million-2.5 million mt/month, short of the 4 million/month of demand for the fuel oil grade, Asian trade sources said.

That 2 million-2.5 million mt/month of supply includes about 200,000 mt/month of Australian heavy sweet crude oil, fuel oil traders in Singapore said.

Australia's Department of Industry said in the December edition of its Resources and Energy Quarterly that it expects ICE Brent crude futures to average $62.40/b in 2020, lowering its earlier forecast by 7%.

"Spot premiums in double-digit figures would comfortably cover a modest year-on-year drop in outright prices ... it's a relief as far as export earnings are concerned," a BHP marketing source said.

Australia may not be on par with giant OPEC producers in terms of output and export volumes, but it stands among the top-tier producers in terms of quality of the crude and condensate produced, making it a niche market for Asian buyers to tap into.

Australian heavy sweet crudes including Pyrenees and Van Gogh are widely seen as ideal for blending into low sulfur marine fuels due to the grades' rich fuel oil yield, very low sulfur content and unique specifications such as low pour point and high flash point, industry and Asian refinery sources have told Platts.

"Australian crudes, light or heavy, are the sweetest grades you could ever find. They typically have a sulfur content of less than 0.3%-0.4%, which means [some of the country's] heavy grades could go straight into the low sulfur marine fuels blending pool," said a crude trading manager at Beijing-based Chinaoil, a trading arm of state-run PetroChina.

Crude and bunker fuel traders, as well as multiple refinery officials in Asia, told Platts that the high premiums paid do not reflect the refining value of the crude, but rather its value for blending into the low sulfur fuel oil pool.'


The high quality Australian heavy sweet grades currently attracting premiums to dated Brent of up to $31/bbl (Pyrenees)

0.14% Sulphur / 18.5% API - STAG - Australian / JADESTONE
0.19% Sulphur / 19.3% API - PYRENEES - Australian / BHP and SANTOS
0.37% Sulphur / 17.4% API - VINCENT - Australian / WOODSIDE
0.37% Sulphur / 18.5% API - VAN GOGH - Australian / BHP

The second tier global heavy sweet crude grades currently attracting premiums to Brent of up to $7/bbl due to their lower quality and the additional sea transportation cost of circa $5/bbl to the globally important marine fuel hubs at Singapore and Fujairah.

0.11% Sulphur / 21.1% API - DOBA - CHAD
0.19% Sulphur / 18.5% API - ESCALANTI - ARGENTINA
0.20% Sulphur / 20.8% API - DURI - INDONESIA
0.34% Sulphur / 27.6% API - DJENO - CONGO
0.49% Sulphur / 23.7% API - DALIA - ANGOLA
0.50% Sulphur / 19.5% API - BRETANA - PERU / PETROTAL

The premium Malaysian, Australian and NZ light sweet crudes currently attracting premiums to Brent of up to $9/bbl

0.05% Sulphur Content / 35.0 API - MONTARA - AUSTRALIA /JADESTONE
0.06% Sulphur Content / 38.6 API - KIMANIS - MALAYSIA
0.09% Sulphur Content / 32.0 API - LABUAN - MALAYSIA
0.09% Sulphur Content / 35.1 API - MAARI - NZ/JADESTONE

Note: Montara and Maari have circa $2/bbl and $4/bbl additional sea transportation costs respectively to Singapore compared to the Malaysian producers.