Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[adejuk] 21/6/2019 12:14

the art of the deal
give me what i want or i'll send the boys in
he's in a deep mess with china, korea, the eu and just about everyone he speaks to
eventually, bullies get what they deserve.

[yankeekraut] 21/6/2019 12:08

What happens wrt Huawei, when nothing happens (supposed G20 meeting between Xi the Donald)? "Sometimes, you just have to walk away".....

[twatcher] 21/6/2019 11:54

longest day indeed :)

[suffersnofools] 21/6/2019 11:50

Thanks bocase.The gold breakout could be huge - it's emerging from a 6 year consolidation phase!

[bulltradept] 21/6/2019 11:50

IC: Shares in IQE (IQE) plunged this morning after it warned that 2019 revenues are expected to land between £140m and £160m – below consensus estimates of £175m. It expects to remain profitable in 2019 but with an adjusted operating margin “significantly below” previous guidance of over 10 per cent. The group has seen a larger impact than the previously-guided risk relating to Chinese company Huawei, “due to the far-reaching impacts on other companies and supply chains that are now becoming evident” as a result of US trade restrictions. It said it is operating in an increasingly cautious marketplace, and has very recently seen a fall in forecasts from a number of chip customers, in its wireless and photonics businesses.

[american idiot] 21/6/2019 11:39

A point to bear in mind also.

The effects of the Huawei ban have clearly taken IQE by surprise.

With only £20m in cash and 2019/20 cap-ex of £40m+ its possible IQE will need to raise further capital to see it through this period of uncertainty.

(Things will get a little worse before they get better IMO)

[adventurous] 21/6/2019 11:37

SH
"These are unprecedented times for the global semiconductor industry as
geo-political conditions affect interconnected global supply chains.

I did not see you forecast that Trump would cause such disruption!!

[american idiot] 21/6/2019 11:36

I sold my earlier trade just short of 50p. Could have had 3p more profit but for itchy fingers unfortunately.

With the short-term outlook so bleak and the very real prospect of a further profit warning in a few months time the risk / reward is still too high.

The fallout for the Huawei ban is far from over and it will rock the entire sector.

Stay safe folks.

[adejuk] 21/6/2019 11:22

i hovered over the sell button all day yesterday but decided to put my faith in the last rns
they really are incompetent managers, however good the science is.
to issue a re-assuring rns after the trump news was ill judged and reactive

[adejuk] 21/6/2019 11:20

there is no doubt that iqe is a winner
the problem is the timeline keeps getting pushed forward
my age is a problem and it's gut wrenching to wake up to the sort of rns we had today.
i just don't want to live with the angst of it any more so i sold 85k at quite a loss

[bulltradept] 21/6/2019 11:17

Good luck Savvy, if it comes good, I shall be the first to congratulate you.

[suffersnofools] 21/6/2019 10:56

Not familiar with ARB - I'll take a look thanks.I hold BTC, ETH and BCH through IG - and hold my smaller alts in my wallets off exchange - mostly NEO and LTC. Sold a few of my newer ones last few days in light of Libra news as I think it removes the use case for many of the coins that are based on becoming payment systems. I'm more convinced by the store of value, anti-inflationary argument.......been a good year though :D £££££

[bocase] 21/6/2019 10:53

SufferNoFools:

Good trade. Well done.

[regasclockwork] 21/6/2019 10:40

Will one of the six of you attending the AGM please ask if the move to the main FTSE market is now on hold - like the 2 new tyres for my car?

[suffersnofools] 21/6/2019 10:38

Out at 53p target 20% return in a couple of hours will do for now.

[savvy investor] 21/6/2019 10:38

Suffernofools. Good move on crypto! Are you in ARB, it is good derisled crypto hedge with most of market cap cover in cash and BTC held. Short term it should go higher as has not moved much since BTC 8000 and massively positive trading statement with BTC assumed at 8500 recently... DYOR

[nickwild] 21/6/2019 10:31

If income this year falls as low as 1p per share P/E is 50. Anything above that would be positive given future prospects.

[suffersnofools] 21/6/2019 10:28

Yes it will recover and I'll be accumulating on weakness over the next few months but without sounding like a scratches record anyone that looks at IQE or any chip stock without considering the bigger picture is delusional. There are huge profits to be made in semi conductors BUT of all the markets I trade is the most cyclical. So given that the implications of Trump's suicidal protectionist policies will soon be given as a factor in the next slew of US company guidance reports in earning season there are many more punches that Investor sentiment before a new bull cycle begins. I even sold my biggest winner of recent years, AMD, last week as I'm so bearish on the market and why I piled into gold, silver and crypto six months ago.....

[bocase] 21/6/2019 10:19

SufferNoFools: Yes agree about gold. It has just broken through long term resistance and gold miners offer a leverage play but looking back at the charts confirms that every time IQE has fallen like this there has been a rapid bounce back often to the tune of 40-80% so a good investment case can be made here if you are prepared for some risk.

[bbonsall] 21/6/2019 10:18

What’s with all this quoting the share price to one hundredth of a penny?!!

[adejuk] 21/6/2019 10:16

i don't think the shorters are done yet
still tens of mill out by my calculations

[suffersnofools] 21/6/2019 10:15

This is going to be a traders play thing until earnings visibility becomes less opaque. Add in another sharp US tech market correction in the offing, and war in Iran pushing investors into defensives (look at gold!) and there is no rush to buy here...

[bocase] 21/6/2019 10:10

Sheepy..you say un-investable for the next 12 months...well you could have made 10% in the last ten minutes!

[savvy investor] 21/6/2019 10:10

It's me and the SIPP, yes very disappointing day. I know the risks but my outlook as said from FEB is a 3 year view. If you trade you can make a fortune, if you sit and hold the right shares you often make much more. I had 500k shares in SIPP, had to sell some to build up a large stake in ARB that I have mentioned on here. Started his morning with 300k shares so lost on paper 100k. Just sold £20k worth of Oher stock to buy another 30k shares at 45p to go to 330k shares. Disappointed but remember this post in Feb 2021, you might surprise yourself 🙂. At this level it is going to attract a bid, yes at 100p it would have taken 200p, now a bid could be successful at 120p or even as low as 100p, however this is not a share with 45p imho... good luck with your decisions

[sheep_herder] 21/6/2019 10:03

adventurous, I think I called it pretty good with all the discussion back in Jan:

Ever since the first miss on the VCSEL side I've been beating the same drum that the revenues are a lot further out than anyone on here realised. Given how badly they predicted the VCSEL ramp it was clear they had no visibility of their business and for me, was far too risky.

I said at the time of that post above that the next update was key. It certainly has been. You can blame it on Trunp all you like but if the rest of the business was kicking on like many on here were convinced, or rather were convinced by a certain poster, a single customer wouldn't again be causing such an issue.

The last two updates have only shown that IQE don't have any visibility in the 6-12 month range in any part of their business. What happens if H2 is a washout and the VCSEL orders they're talking about don't make up the difference. For a company so heavily investing in capex for a market that has dried up, it doesn't look great to me. When do they have to start paying rent on that under utilized "mega" foundry? Will they have to raise more funds or make layoffs before Christmas?

Whatever happens, this is uninvestable for another 12 months until they prove revenue generation.