Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[tomduck] 13/9/2018 11:47

“Lords” You mean their association with Lumentum surely, if you refer to supply of 6” wafers for FACE ID? No matter what Finisar do in numbers going forward (and it seems they have already missed the next wave of iPhones) I suspect IQE will not struggle supplying their 6” wafers to the market for 3D sensing over the coming years. It’s nothing like Apple and IMG like some are suggesting, nothing at all.

[lord loads of lolly] 13/9/2018 11:43

I'd agree tomduck. Though as fuji99 suggested, their association with Apple could become a double-edged sword. They seem to be spreading the client base to mitigate this issue though.

[tomduck] 13/9/2018 11:39

Thanks Sheepherder, your time is appreciated and what you say seems sensible. What will follow 6” as the next big thing, or is that too far away? My head is looking at the long term (never use my heart to invest), say 5 years. I believe IQE is at a VERY attractive forward PE considering how many strings it has to it’s bow over the coming years. A little like it was 18 months back below 20p... Or have I missed something?

[lord loads of lolly] 13/9/2018 11:37

Thanks fuji99. I'm not sure I'd agree IQE's growth will be slow 'for at least this year'. They've forecast 35%-60% Photonics growth, which is also higher margin than their other sectors. Admittedly, Wireless & InfraRed growth is forecast to be somewhere between 0%-15%. Still not what I'd term slow though. Totally agree about dependency on Apple, though they now seem to be spreading the client base far more than IMG ever did.

[yankeekraut] 13/9/2018 11:33

folks seem to forget that TRP paid 1.40 a share last year, and this capital gave iqe the ability to invest for the future (had a massive impact on cash - from debt of 40+ mil. to net 40+ mil. currently. None of this would have been possible w/o the share placement. Only TRP knows the end game here. You can be sure they have an experienced team monitoring / handling the daily trades. They definitely know what they are doing, unlike many who post here...

[fuji99] 13/9/2018 11:31

regas - Very funny indeed if he communicates from Croydon !

[regasclockwork] 13/9/2018 11:30

fuji9913 Sep '18 - 10:44 - 20913 of 20918

"The crunk is in Zimbabwe. He is not bothering anybody." -End-

You obviously haven't read recent posts on here.

He may not be bothering anyone on VRS, but we had 2 posts from him from Zimbabwe yesterday and we've already had 3 today. You can't keep a good man down.

I think there is a Zimbabwe just south of Croydon. Could be why he's getting such a good connection? LOL!

EDIT: Make that 4-posts SO FAR today. More LOL's!

[fuji99] 13/9/2018 11:28

lord loads - I meant in terms of RNS's as VRS nanene has applications for almost every industry. Regarding IQE, it won't vanish but the growth will be slow for at least this year. The other question mark with IQE is how exposed is it to Apple ? Rings Imagination Tech bell if they depend too much on Apple if one day it pulls the plug.
That's the only risk I can see in IQE share price value.

[sheep_herder] 13/9/2018 11:24

Tomduck,

1. I think IQE are in pole position on all the technology fronts. VCSELs currently seem to be the highest margin and with payback within a year, the capex is not something I'm overly concerned about. The next two technologies that will make a big difference are cREO and NIL but I have no idea when we'll see meaningful revenue.

2. The 5G rollout is starting now in terms of infrastructure and you can see a few people like QCOM suggesting they'll ship phones next year. It's really hard to predict how much infrastructure demand will feed back to IQE because the market dynamics are totally different to 4G. The higher frequencies demand not only higher performance RF amps/filters/etc, but the short range and lack of penetration in buildings means that the sheer number of cells is going to be massive. That has further implication on the backhaul networks that will be needed to connect them. This is the first roll out of its kind and we currently have no visibility. Next year will hopefully give us some numbers. My view is that the ramp up will be slower and more controlled than, for example, Sweenoids view. One of us will be right. Either way, IQE will eventually profit. As for 6" wafers in RF, it really depends on whether the customers are set up to process that size.

[lord loads of lolly] 13/9/2018 11:23

fuji99 - "With VRS, nobody knows what to expect". That's probably why I never invested in it. It's enough of a roller coaster with companies you think you know!

[fuji99] 13/9/2018 11:19

Tomduck - The difference with VRS though is its interaction with so many different companies requiring various applications using nanene. VRS will therefore release many RNS each time it clinches a collaboration deal. Then add the announcements each time acceptance and adoption of nanene for various applications is confirmed. Every RNS will boost the share price So to me VRS is special and cannot be compared to IQE or any other company. With VRS, nobody knows what to expect and what's the next announcement every morning. So nobody can predict or compute/model its share price.

[thecrunk] 13/9/2018 11:17

There is another 6 months to wait for IQE results. Good luck. With 20 OEMS onboard, tons of cash, why does Drew Nelson keep going on investor roadshows. IQE has plenty of investors already. How about looking after the investors you have.

I reckon then guy is Dodgeville deluxe. The type of guy who does not like having a strong CFO around to tell him what to do, the type of guy who does not like a strong independent board around to tell him what to do, the type of guy who has had too much power for too long, who is way off the reservation and needs his wings clipped very soon.

Everyone is right about one thing. T Rowe Price is building a very big stake, IQE will be valuable in the long term and anyone with patience will make money for sure. In the short term you will lose money and buy short term I mean past 9 month to the following 9 months.

But one thing for sure is that Drew Nelson will not last as CEO his time at the helm has been disastrous. This is not his company to run as he owns it. He is not a god. He needs to act as if he is accountable and that he certainly has not done.

Down with Drew Nelson

Down with Drew Nelson

Down with Drew Nelson

[lord loads of lolly] 13/9/2018 11:15

Tomduck - I'm no expert on VRS, but it has the feel of a share being talked about by absolutely everyone. That usually happens just before the music stops - look at Bitcoin! Not sure those 'jumping ship' from IQE recently will have all bought high. They may be long term investors, worried about seeing their high paper profit eroded somewhat. But I totally agree with you they may well regret jumping from IQE to VRS longer term.

[tomduck] 13/9/2018 11:07

I think anyone who recently jumped ship from IQE at recent prices into VRS where they are currently may find they have sold near market lows and bought at close to market highs. I like VRS and own them but would not be buying now as they appear to have much priced into their MC already. But as we know markets are often about the trend, which is your friend until it ends.

[lord loads of lolly] 13/9/2018 11:06

I think it's futile to second-guess the games shorters play. After all, few would have predicted the current scenario. But yes, IQE's results will ultimately determine the long term share price direction. Their forecasts are currently very bullish and they've generally met these in the past.

[tomduck] 13/9/2018 11:04

Thanks SheepHerder, I remain positive because i’m already 450% up at these levels but of course it would be better if the share price was still at £1.50!

Questions for you:

1. I can see that photonics revenue via 6” VCSEL’ etc will be strong (as per IQE forecasts) for next 3-5yrs. What is the next wafer tech going to be and is IQE likely to be in pole position for that?

2. When do you think 5G profits will start hitting meaningfully? 2020? Do you believe IQE is in a similar position with 5G as with their 6” wafers at present?

Thanks

[jimboyce] 13/9/2018 11:03

TRPrice will want to regain value for their financial year end of 31December, so expect some fun and games between now and then. Shorters are at risk of TRP demanding their shares back, which will create a perfect storm, where MM's will be asked to obtain millions of shares at any price. Long termers know the potential of IQE, and can therefore sit back and watch this fascinating game play out from the sidelines.

[fuji99] 13/9/2018 10:44

The crunk is in Zimbabwe. He is not bothering anybody.

[fuji99] 13/9/2018 10:42

IMO IQE has a bright future, will happen under a slow process, from now until 2019.

[squire007] 13/9/2018 10:39

Well I look at it like this, there is no way the shorts can fully close their positions without a bun fight between themselves and forcing the share price back to where it came from and beyond, sure they will make on this treachery but from here I see fun and games, and blue sky ............... wait and enjoy. :-)

[lord loads of lolly] 13/9/2018 10:28

Sheep_Herder - I generally agree. But I think today's share price suggests the current year forecast won't be met. When this proves to be wrong, which I think it will, the share price will respond upwards. And I anticipate this being with full year results next March - i.e. before not after next summer.

[adventurous] 13/9/2018 10:26

The share price push back to 80p, has so far, not produced the capitulation I guess the hedge funds are hoping, to enable buybacks amounting to 80m shares - have they been suckered!!

[gingercat1] 13/9/2018 10:24

5G gathering pace, some decent info and links over on FTC.

[shavian] 13/9/2018 10:23

I said a year ago that there was a gap to be filled around 80p, but I never thought it would happen. Here we are then - time to start accumulating again.

Now now SH. Don't forget that The Crunk is/was a fund manager with an unnamed City institution, which maybe why he's such a crunk.

Unfortunately he's now infesting the VRS board which was a haven of calm and politeness until he and a couple like him arrived.

[sheep_herder] 13/9/2018 10:21

Tomduck, I never really predicted it would get to 80p, it was more a wind up aimed towards the Rampmeister General. :-) I think this company is great but am very happy that I bailed between 150-120p.

I don't see any positive news that could shift the price until after summer 2019. We know the current year forecasts so there will be plenty of time to buy back in next year. But if I had spare funds, I think now would be a good point to pick up shares from those crunts like crunk who haven't got a clue.