Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[sheep_herder] 13/9/2018 11:24

Tomduck,

1. I think IQE are in pole position on all the technology fronts. VCSELs currently seem to be the highest margin and with payback within a year, the capex is not something I'm overly concerned about. The next two technologies that will make a big difference are cREO and NIL but I have no idea when we'll see meaningful revenue.

2. The 5G rollout is starting now in terms of infrastructure and you can see a few people like QCOM suggesting they'll ship phones next year. It's really hard to predict how much infrastructure demand will feed back to IQE because the market dynamics are totally different to 4G. The higher frequencies demand not only higher performance RF amps/filters/etc, but the short range and lack of penetration in buildings means that the sheer number of cells is going to be massive. That has further implication on the backhaul networks that will be needed to connect them. This is the first roll out of its kind and we currently have no visibility. Next year will hopefully give us some numbers. My view is that the ramp up will be slower and more controlled than, for example, Sweenoids view. One of us will be right. Either way, IQE will eventually profit. As for 6" wafers in RF, it really depends on whether the customers are set up to process that size.

[lord loads of lolly] 13/9/2018 11:23

fuji99 - "With VRS, nobody knows what to expect". That's probably why I never invested in it. It's enough of a roller coaster with companies you think you know!

[fuji99] 13/9/2018 11:19

Tomduck - The difference with VRS though is its interaction with so many different companies requiring various applications using nanene. VRS will therefore release many RNS each time it clinches a collaboration deal. Then add the announcements each time acceptance and adoption of nanene for various applications is confirmed. Every RNS will boost the share price So to me VRS is special and cannot be compared to IQE or any other company. With VRS, nobody knows what to expect and what's the next announcement every morning. So nobody can predict or compute/model its share price.

[thecrunk] 13/9/2018 11:17

There is another 6 months to wait for IQE results. Good luck. With 20 OEMS onboard, tons of cash, why does Drew Nelson keep going on investor roadshows. IQE has plenty of investors already. How about looking after the investors you have.

I reckon then guy is Dodgeville deluxe. The type of guy who does not like having a strong CFO around to tell him what to do, the type of guy who does not like a strong independent board around to tell him what to do, the type of guy who has had too much power for too long, who is way off the reservation and needs his wings clipped very soon.

Everyone is right about one thing. T Rowe Price is building a very big stake, IQE will be valuable in the long term and anyone with patience will make money for sure. In the short term you will lose money and buy short term I mean past 9 month to the following 9 months.

But one thing for sure is that Drew Nelson will not last as CEO his time at the helm has been disastrous. This is not his company to run as he owns it. He is not a god. He needs to act as if he is accountable and that he certainly has not done.

Down with Drew Nelson

Down with Drew Nelson

Down with Drew Nelson

[lord loads of lolly] 13/9/2018 11:15

Tomduck - I'm no expert on VRS, but it has the feel of a share being talked about by absolutely everyone. That usually happens just before the music stops - look at Bitcoin! Not sure those 'jumping ship' from IQE recently will have all bought high. They may be long term investors, worried about seeing their high paper profit eroded somewhat. But I totally agree with you they may well regret jumping from IQE to VRS longer term.

[tomduck] 13/9/2018 11:07

I think anyone who recently jumped ship from IQE at recent prices into VRS where they are currently may find they have sold near market lows and bought at close to market highs. I like VRS and own them but would not be buying now as they appear to have much priced into their MC already. But as we know markets are often about the trend, which is your friend until it ends.

[lord loads of lolly] 13/9/2018 11:06

I think it's futile to second-guess the games shorters play. After all, few would have predicted the current scenario. But yes, IQE's results will ultimately determine the long term share price direction. Their forecasts are currently very bullish and they've generally met these in the past.

[tomduck] 13/9/2018 11:04

Thanks SheepHerder, I remain positive because i’m already 450% up at these levels but of course it would be better if the share price was still at £1.50!

Questions for you:

1. I can see that photonics revenue via 6” VCSEL’ etc will be strong (as per IQE forecasts) for next 3-5yrs. What is the next wafer tech going to be and is IQE likely to be in pole position for that?

2. When do you think 5G profits will start hitting meaningfully? 2020? Do you believe IQE is in a similar position with 5G as with their 6” wafers at present?

Thanks

[jimboyce] 13/9/2018 11:03

TRPrice will want to regain value for their financial year end of 31December, so expect some fun and games between now and then. Shorters are at risk of TRP demanding their shares back, which will create a perfect storm, where MM's will be asked to obtain millions of shares at any price. Long termers know the potential of IQE, and can therefore sit back and watch this fascinating game play out from the sidelines.

[fuji99] 13/9/2018 10:44

The crunk is in Zimbabwe. He is not bothering anybody.

[fuji99] 13/9/2018 10:42

IMO IQE has a bright future, will happen under a slow process, from now until 2019.

[squire007] 13/9/2018 10:39

Well I look at it like this, there is no way the shorts can fully close their positions without a bun fight between themselves and forcing the share price back to where it came from and beyond, sure they will make on this treachery but from here I see fun and games, and blue sky ............... wait and enjoy. :-)

[lord loads of lolly] 13/9/2018 10:28

Sheep_Herder - I generally agree. But I think today's share price suggests the current year forecast won't be met. When this proves to be wrong, which I think it will, the share price will respond upwards. And I anticipate this being with full year results next March - i.e. before not after next summer.

[adventurous] 13/9/2018 10:26

The share price push back to 80p, has so far, not produced the capitulation I guess the hedge funds are hoping, to enable buybacks amounting to 80m shares - have they been suckered!!

[gingercat1] 13/9/2018 10:24

5G gathering pace, some decent info and links over on FTC.

[shavian] 13/9/2018 10:23

I said a year ago that there was a gap to be filled around 80p, but I never thought it would happen. Here we are then - time to start accumulating again.

Now now SH. Don't forget that The Crunk is/was a fund manager with an unnamed City institution, which maybe why he's such a crunk.

Unfortunately he's now infesting the VRS board which was a haven of calm and politeness until he and a couple like him arrived.

[sheep_herder] 13/9/2018 10:21

Tomduck, I never really predicted it would get to 80p, it was more a wind up aimed towards the Rampmeister General. :-) I think this company is great but am very happy that I bailed between 150-120p.

I don't see any positive news that could shift the price until after summer 2019. We know the current year forecasts so there will be plenty of time to buy back in next year. But if I had spare funds, I think now would be a good point to pick up shares from those crunts like crunk who haven't got a clue.

[lord loads of lolly] 13/9/2018 10:21

regasclockwork - I'd say there are no problems for long term holders. Short term, there are a couple of issues: 1. No CFO in place, though this is being addressed and will likely be resolved by early 2019. 2. Shorters are still in control, exploiting - amongst other things - the lack of a CFO and the lacklustre interim statement. So those looking backwards may have the odd concern, those looking to the future should have none.

[regasclockwork] 13/9/2018 10:13

From stoater on iii? this morning:

Should IQE be making a statement?Today 08:40Under AIM rules I think IQE maybe should be making some sort of statement if there is something known, as yet unannounced that will materially affect the company.

General disclosure of price sensitive information
11. An AIM company must issue notification without delay of any new developments which are not public knowledge which, if made public, would be likely to lead to a significant movement in the price of its AIM securities. By way of example, this may include matters concerning a change in:
— its financial condition;
— its sphere of activity;
— the performance of its business; or
— its expectation of its performance. -End-

So, no announcement from IQE, so no problems?

[fuji99] 13/9/2018 10:13

As 5G becomes reality.

[fuji99] 13/9/2018 10:06

Cheers poombear - Interesting to note that the biggest are Samsung and Huawei with market share between them of almost 37%. then you have the likes of Xiaomi growing strongly at 81.9%. So as usual, China is powering ahead. IMO IQE will end up taken over by a Chinese company as did IMG.

[tini5] 13/9/2018 10:04

Buy order in for 76 to have a nibble and average down if it gets there, otherwise will just sit tight with what I have.

[s34icknote] 13/9/2018 10:01

Wasn't eps down fifty percent at the half way stage ?Is this the reason for the fall from grace ?Sicknote

[poombear] 13/9/2018 09:59

Fuji thanks for the BBC article. Interesting to see that Apple only hold 12% of the market. As we know IQE have been qualifying with the much bigger Android market, which has already started introducing 3D sensors in their phones.