Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[aimingupward2] 13/8/2017 11:44

grabster, it seems that it's just the terminology we're doddering over. I fully accept what you say in your post 4503 as a course of action, though I don't do it myself. What I have found confusing is people talking of 'shorting' when they haven't borrowed and sold shares which they will later have to buy back and return to the original owners - as organisations holding short positions have done. Spreadbetting is simply betting and doesn't involve holding short positions. This how I understand it anyway. Please advise if I am wrong here.

[panic investor] 13/8/2017 11:01

appreciated Sweenoid, I spent yesterday watching videos about VCSEL's ! I never was too hot at physics but at least it's given me a better understanding especially configuration wise etc.

[sweenoid] 13/8/2017 10:32

Each to his own

Just done a WORSE CASE SCENARIO in terms of what IQE should earn in revenues THIS 2017 CY for the new smartphone VCSEL business.
I can't be AR+ed to post the whole calculation but it uses information on Lumentum's CC which shows that their 1st half CY 17 3D sensing business only represented 1.25% of their CONTRACTED revenues for the whole year. I have made educated ( I know my stuff!) guesses at market share for IQE in terms of the outsource market, revenue per phone, volumes, etc etc etc
My guesstimates are all ultra-conservative, worse case scenarios and ONLY relate to 2017, and are based on a successful launch and roll-out of iPhone 8, it bares in mind we are the 1st stage in the food chain - I guess from wafer production to incorporation into a customer ( Lumentum AND others who will initially have a much smaller market share) module to take about 6 weeks, then time into the phone itself about another 4 weeks.literally ALL of the VCSEL revenue as with Lumentum will be in H2 NOT in H1results.

I CANNOT get below £13million ( sterling) revenues in 2017, it's likely to be much higher.
At present of course the FY revenue consensus estimate is £143 million, and includes NO VCSEL revenue,imho we will beat that revenue by about £10 million anyhow and regardless.so I would be provisionally looking at a figure of about £166million as the NEW analyst figure for this year.of course it's the 2018 figures that really count, if RF GAN and RF power kick in as I expect and VCSEL revenue is exponential , all bets are off for 2018 :-)

Conservatively
Dave ;-)

[grabster] 13/8/2017 09:14

aimingupward - I agree exactly with the answer given by toffeeman (4499). Repeatedly selling and rebuying the actual shares to take full advantage of troughs and rebounds along the way would incur costs and would complicate tax returns. I find it far more convenient to hang onto a stock whose longterm prospects are good, and use spreadbets for occasional downbets along the way, to harvest additional gains without the cost and hassle, whenever there is a suitable opportunity. If betting downward on the dip (at a stake that matches the holding) there is nil risk - as any unexpected upsurge that damaged the short would be compensated by the increased value of the holding. It means that there are occasions when I am both long and short a stock at the same time. Been working that way for more than a decade - working upwards as an investor and downwards as a trader at the same time, now and then. It has boosted my overall gains and is how I make my living.

[elcapital2017] 13/8/2017 08:36

daijavu12 Aug '17 - 14:21 - 4481 of 4500 1 1
elcapital. Why are you comparing IQE with the likes of Globo and QPP?

I'd like to know your reasons.

You clearly did not understand. I am not comparing IQE to those companies. Some idiot asked me if I ever get anything right, and I havent got anything wrong for some time, so I mentioned just a few that I had called right

I watch short positions that are disclosed....look at Telic, the City gets it right more often than not. I cant see why this company has shot ahead so much, even the MD must be surprised given his equity loan att a tenth of the current share price Im not short yet, but it looks ripe for a fall imo

[luckymouse] 13/8/2017 02:58

Hedging/covered shorts arent a bad idea - i do it with ITs sometimes - timing is always a bit of a mare tho. Never ever ever jump in front of bull/bear train mind - it has to stop, pause n turn with multiple confluences first - otherwise you can get run over

[toffeeman] 12/8/2017 23:28

aimingupward:

1. because I want to hold for dividends and capital gain in the long run.
2. because stocks (normally- IQE:)) don't travel in a straight line - so it's possible to make money going short.
3. there are no dealing costs (except the spread) shorting via a spreadbet.
4. it's what the hedge funds do on a much bigger scale and I don't have enough dosh to buy into a hedge fund - but I can do what they do on a small scale.

[dpmeyer] 12/8/2017 21:40

Me too ;-) My daughter has my former iPhone 6 and we're both very happy with them for different reasons (my daughter, because she got it free..)

Edit to add - if the new one looks good in Sep I'll probably go for it and both she and I will 'upgrade' our respective phones, me rather more expensively!

[logica2me] 12/8/2017 21:19

I have an iPhone 7 :-)

[mad foetus] 12/8/2017 21:06

If the iPhone has face recognition it is a short step to using it to enable cars to be driven by owners only, for entry into private space, priority entrance at sporting events, non-transferable tickets being linked to an Apple ID etc. There will be lots of uses. My view, which comes largely from teenage kids, is that everyone has an iPhone 6, nobody has an iPhone 7, and people are waiting for iPhone 8 and hoping it has the features that make it a real step forward

[aimingupward2] 12/8/2017 20:56

Why would you short when you could, presumably a bit less expensively, sell and buy back some of your long term holding?

[toffeeman] 12/8/2017 20:31

Grabster - I agree! - I have taken to shorting stocks I hold for the long term when they hit resistance levels - so I make a bit extra when they drop back.

A stock like GSK is quite easy to call - but IQE is too volatile (I think).

[pugugly] 12/8/2017 18:24

Agreed PI - I confess - If it does what you need it (emergeny use) for why change - The old Nokia 1600 holds battery charge for well over 2 weeks, tell me of a smart phone that does that !!

Only major drawback no camera or GPS - which could be useful - provided battery still has power !!

However if general public want the latest gagets and IQE are in the sweet spot of enabling continue to hold IQE and be able to buy a new smart phone every week !!!!

Sorry - Summer silly season and getting late -

[panic investor] 12/8/2017 18:08

The general guy on the street loves the latest pointless gadgets on phones - personally it's all a bit tedious but there you go.You drive down any street and you'll see every car with its satnav on even though the dips probably live within a mile of where they are !It will sell if it works

[sheep_herder] 12/8/2017 18:03

I'm sure there were people who questioned the need for cameras on a phone, for a finger print sensor, for voice recognition, and yet, here we are in a world where those technologies are taken for granted now. The same will be true of 3D sensors and their many uses, only one of which is unlocking your phone.

Technologies are developed to solve problems or make a task easier. What often happens is that once a technology has reached a consumer price point and becomes a commodity item, new use cases appear that people hadn't thought of before. The techology is an enabler. It allows people to innovate and solve problems outside of the techologies original remit.

Just because the majority of this board are luddites, doesn't mean it won't be a success. And as an aide, a "poor" Q4 sales quarter for the iPhone would be about 65m units. I'm not sure much caution is warranted. :-)

[dr_smith] 12/8/2017 17:46

I was expecting something more... pocket size.
... I'll get me coat ;-)

[grabster] 12/8/2017 17:46

In previous years I've made as much money from going short as from going long. Even some of my favourite stocks I have shorted when sensible to do so. I am not shorting this one at present - I've added and added, despite it having already grown to be my biggest holding.

I agree with the caution about presuming that the i-Phone 8 necessarily selling well. And I think the novelty of facial recognition (on some models only) is not going to be especially useful to most owners once they've shown it off to workmates and friends. But I still think that the launch, and the formal confirmation of IQE's involvement, will have a very potent effect on the share price. And I look forward to the many other areas in which their technology will rapidly spread.

[wrongmove] 12/8/2017 17:45

Were the shorters, frantically closing out loss making positions, the reason why we topped 130 on Friday? Look at IQE curve versus FTSE 250.

Nothing much to worry about here, IMO, for long holders.

[referencepoint] 12/8/2017 17:23

Nothing new, but it's nice to see Dr Drew Nelson posing with an Iphone!

[logica2me] 12/8/2017 16:44

Ah, yes. Hadn't noticed that!

I'm calling 150p this week by the way.

[dr_smith] 12/8/2017 16:37

LOGICA2ME: As posted by Grity 4412. :-)

[galatea99] 12/8/2017 14:57

@elcapital,

Globo and QPP were trailed as likely frauds for months and months, both very obvious shorting opportunities.

Foxton came to market at the right time for its then owners who floated it off when it was very obvious that the London property market was topping out, again a very obvious shorting opportunity.

Purplebricks, way overhyped, talked up by people taken in by online property hype and now on a PER beyond belief, again a very obvious shorting opportunity.

You're equating IQE with THESE? On what grounds?

You obviously know nothing at all about this company.