Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[tini5] 14/8/2017 08:03

Pah, who cares about the shorts and your pathetic attempts to derail this stock.

I'm looking at the price this morning and just have a big 'ol smile on my face and can't stop laughing at how good it feels to be backing such a strong winner.

[elcapital2017] 14/8/2017 07:53

Shorts position upto 2.19% and increasing.

[referencepoint] 14/8/2017 07:51

Thanks Sweenoid. (from the whole IQE investing community).

[tini5] 14/8/2017 07:49

Thanks Sweenoid for sharing, that's amazing! I guess looks even cheaper at these prices than it did last week. Will have to try and pick up some more.

[industrious1] 14/8/2017 07:44

Ref- good find. Short term likely limited impact while they ramp up production & quality, bring on new clients and show they can meet demands of qual & vol.

[sweenoid] 14/8/2017 07:44

Reference -read my posts-your question already answered in a positive way for IQE!
More importantly

Off to the races?!

Prepare yourself for a nice read :-). I reached out to John Croteau the CEO of Macom over the weekend, regarding last Thursdays customer audit on their RF GAN on silicon basestation proposition ( very important to IQE). Unbelievably, he kindly responded, we exchanged a few mails. What a great guy he is.

"Hi, David. The audit went fine as predicted. Customers found everything in order. Moving forward to next production stages"{...}
Customer adoption process just as I had hoped and anticipated. At this juncture I consider our vendor position no different than incumbent LDMOS suppliers. We will win and lose programs based on the merits of our product and support, of which I am proud and confident".He went on to say that
"Customer audits are commonplace for qualified vendors. I shared that detail on the call so that investors would realize that we're in the game for real. The presence of an audit itself is a leading indicator of success prior to the ramp of meaningful revenue. It really wasn't as big a deal as some people inferred from my comments, so I wouldn't oversell the milestone to other investors"

Fabulous stuff! Especially baring in mind these comments he made at the Macom CC last week.

"Yeah, the initial design-ins we have, we actually have more frequency bands now than we had before. I think I talked about 900 megahertz and 1.8 gigahertz, we now have wins with 3.5 and 2.3. And all of those initial quals completed, we have additional quals completing in September. We have a major customer audit, which is the conclusion of all of this qualifications stuff, August 10. Full expectation, that's going to go well in which case, we're going to be off to the races with geometric proliferation of program wins on a go-forward basis. But let me say, what I've always said, which is we're not through the gate until we're through the gate".



It therefore appears Macom and hence IQE have reached that pivotal inflection point in this RF GAN basestation market ( boding very very well for our hugely exciting GAN power business as well),
at the very same time as IQE has reached and just broken through the inflection point in the hugely lucrative VCSEL market! It looks like we may very well be adding RF GAN revenues in 2017 ( small revenues to start as in all new ventures)with a significant breakout likely in 2018.

In a separate e-mail ( I asked for permission to post his response, I explained I was an IQE and Macom investor) John very nicely commented and this was unsolicited "I actually had dinner with Drew Nelson last week. A true gentleman. IQE is also central to our supply of InPh lasers, too." Since their Indium phosphide business is going gangbusters ( data centres and hyper-scale business) that was a nice 'aside'. I LOVE the word CENTRAL! I have long been a fan of Macom and their CEO , his responses to me were very appreciatively received. Look here for the secular growth drivers IQE are helping Macom with

This is what Macom said last week- . "The decline in Optical was offset by growth in our Data Center businesses, which were up strong sequentially and 310 percent year-over-year, now totaling almost 30 percent of company revenue. We continue to ramp supply aggressively to meet the demand in these Cloud-based businesses", for other very positive comments,read the relevant parts of the CC transcript.



What is pivotal for investors? NOT A SINGLE PENNY has so far been factored into analyst estimates for this new RF GAN business, let alone the VCSELS, analysts will respond with new estimates factoring in the new VCSEL business on September 5, following interim results guidance,but it's nice to know that if Macom execute their base-station business as they expect , we can look forward to meaningful upgrades soon for this business too :-)

2018 revenue estimates will surely now have to factor in 2,not 1,huge NEW growth markets. Even better, in 2018 I expect IQE to win a good share of the front end filter business, ( could quadruple our wireless revenues),and wins in GAN power, also maybe, just maybe, our solar proposition via the solar junction/ Sierra Nevada corporation venture will reap rewards ( it will imho).

Yum yum yummy yum yum
Happy happy days
S

[amt] 14/8/2017 07:20

Far East is up and Europe will follow

[referencepoint] 14/8/2017 07:17

Although we currently hold a strong position in the manufacture of VCSEL's, the rest of the world were never going to let us have a free ride. (see attached article).
Interested in views on how this will impact us, short and long term.

[khitchen] 14/8/2017 07:11

amt
what makes you think the markets are going to be strong today

[amt] 14/8/2017 05:43

Markets strong today so stage set for a push towards 1.50 me thinks.

[bigjohnsmam] 13/8/2017 20:59

Excellent.
She's great actually.

[grabster] 13/8/2017 20:37

Methinks your own face might become unrecognizable if somebody shows her what you wrote :-O

[bigjohnsmam] 13/8/2017 20:22

I don't think facial recognition would go down well with my wife.
She looks a different person without make up.
Even uglier.

[pyglet] 13/8/2017 19:02

sweenoid.

Many thanks indeed for your most valuable insight to the stocks.
I have just watched this video and feel very confident that a man like this is the CFO of the company.
Great management is a key for me.

hxxp://www.piworld.co.uk/2016/01/18/iqe-investor-presentation-mello-18th-january-2016/

[aimingupward2] 13/8/2017 12:24

Sorry. Say no more.

[grabster] 13/8/2017 12:01

a/u - the organization (bookie - whether they like being called that or not) will typically match upbettors' bets against downbettors' bets, and may or may not take a position in the shares themselves for the unmatched bets. More often than not, they will, so in those cases the shares ARE being shifted back and forth. If I open an upbet on a stock that has limited liquidity, in an easily identified size, I often see the same-size trade appearing in the market - indicating that the bookie has taken a position in real shares. Similar observations are sometimes possible with downbets.

PS: Apologies to readers who feel this discussion belongs elsewhere. It arose when someone (unconvincingly) claimed to be shorting this particular stock. Not something I would be doing. End of my input on the subject ;-)

[aimingupward2] 13/8/2017 11:44

grabster, it seems that it's just the terminology we're doddering over. I fully accept what you say in your post 4503 as a course of action, though I don't do it myself. What I have found confusing is people talking of 'shorting' when they haven't borrowed and sold shares which they will later have to buy back and return to the original owners - as organisations holding short positions have done. Spreadbetting is simply betting and doesn't involve holding short positions. This how I understand it anyway. Please advise if I am wrong here.

[panic investor] 13/8/2017 11:01

appreciated Sweenoid, I spent yesterday watching videos about VCSEL's ! I never was too hot at physics but at least it's given me a better understanding especially configuration wise etc.

[sweenoid] 13/8/2017 10:32

Each to his own

Just done a WORSE CASE SCENARIO in terms of what IQE should earn in revenues THIS 2017 CY for the new smartphone VCSEL business.
I can't be AR+ed to post the whole calculation but it uses information on Lumentum's CC which shows that their 1st half CY 17 3D sensing business only represented 1.25% of their CONTRACTED revenues for the whole year. I have made educated ( I know my stuff!) guesses at market share for IQE in terms of the outsource market, revenue per phone, volumes, etc etc etc
My guesstimates are all ultra-conservative, worse case scenarios and ONLY relate to 2017, and are based on a successful launch and roll-out of iPhone 8, it bares in mind we are the 1st stage in the food chain - I guess from wafer production to incorporation into a customer ( Lumentum AND others who will initially have a much smaller market share) module to take about 6 weeks, then time into the phone itself about another 4 weeks.literally ALL of the VCSEL revenue as with Lumentum will be in H2 NOT in H1results.

I CANNOT get below £13million ( sterling) revenues in 2017, it's likely to be much higher.
At present of course the FY revenue consensus estimate is £143 million, and includes NO VCSEL revenue,imho we will beat that revenue by about £10 million anyhow and regardless.so I would be provisionally looking at a figure of about £166million as the NEW analyst figure for this year.of course it's the 2018 figures that really count, if RF GAN and RF power kick in as I expect and VCSEL revenue is exponential , all bets are off for 2018 :-)

Conservatively
Dave ;-)

[grabster] 13/8/2017 09:14

aimingupward - I agree exactly with the answer given by toffeeman (4499). Repeatedly selling and rebuying the actual shares to take full advantage of troughs and rebounds along the way would incur costs and would complicate tax returns. I find it far more convenient to hang onto a stock whose longterm prospects are good, and use spreadbets for occasional downbets along the way, to harvest additional gains without the cost and hassle, whenever there is a suitable opportunity. If betting downward on the dip (at a stake that matches the holding) there is nil risk - as any unexpected upsurge that damaged the short would be compensated by the increased value of the holding. It means that there are occasions when I am both long and short a stock at the same time. Been working that way for more than a decade - working upwards as an investor and downwards as a trader at the same time, now and then. It has boosted my overall gains and is how I make my living.

[elcapital2017] 13/8/2017 08:36

daijavu12 Aug '17 - 14:21 - 4481 of 4500 1 1
elcapital. Why are you comparing IQE with the likes of Globo and QPP?

I'd like to know your reasons.

You clearly did not understand. I am not comparing IQE to those companies. Some idiot asked me if I ever get anything right, and I havent got anything wrong for some time, so I mentioned just a few that I had called right

I watch short positions that are disclosed....look at Telic, the City gets it right more often than not. I cant see why this company has shot ahead so much, even the MD must be surprised given his equity loan att a tenth of the current share price Im not short yet, but it looks ripe for a fall imo