Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[daijavu] 12/8/2017 14:21

elcapital. Why are you comparing IQE with the likes of Globo and QPP?

I'd like to know your reasons.

[elcapital2017] 12/8/2017 13:19

none as elcapial. A few if you want to go back over 10 years..

Look at Globo, Qpp, PLUS,, FOxtons to name just a few. Purp was underwater but isnt anymore but still not closed. Telic still up around 35% this week. Need I go on?

Im not saying to short this YET, although it looks overvalued and the short position is increasing. It is on my follow list though.

[panic investor] 12/8/2017 12:49

when elcapital arrives you know it's time to increase your holding, bloody useless, surprised he's still around. How many wrong calls can you make.

[elcapital2017] 12/8/2017 12:27

short position increasing......last days for the bulls

[dpmeyer] 12/8/2017 11:59

Facial recognition is a nice to have, but I don't think it's the main draw on this technology. As you say there are plenty of other potential applications: for me, the 3D sensing and AR opportunities are the biggies: think of being able to produce a 3D room plan with a few clicks, and then overlay fittings, fixtures and furniture options to see how they work and look before buying. I doubt that capability will be there at the beginning, but it's certainly in reach.

[dr_smith] 12/8/2017 11:45

A big focal point at mo' (no pun intended) is iphones facial recognition.
Is it proven to work and to be desired by users?

Personally, I don't bother with a phone lock, though accept many do - say in an office environment.
Even then, a simple code would be fine for me, but facial recognition may remove tedium, but questionable as to worth changing phone for.

Passport control has facial recognition - a dedicated machine, not a phone and still takes time and struggles (with yesterdays technology no doubt).

It seems assumed everywhere in iphone sales expectations etc, that it will work fantastically on the iphone, even at angles and for multiples faces, but I haven't seen or heard of user acceptance testing or evidence of desirability by users -justifying a higher cost.
I would assume an iphone launch implicitly means widespread user acceptance testing, but media comment has merely been lines of code that imply scope of funtionality.
Maybe cos code is leaked but not acceptance testing by a trusted test user community.

OK, loads of other scope for this technology, but iphone wise - much seems to be riding on the assumption facial recognition will work.. cos it's apple.. but we don't know that.. yet.
Fair comment?
(Edit: Above typed before seeing Sweenoids above post..but question remains :-) )

[sweenoid] 12/8/2017 11:12

Agreed Sheepy - makes my posts repetitive too for those that actually read them.totally agree with comments about analysts.

One point in the defence of analysts, is that they have too assess visibility, it's interesting that the Lumentum CEO singularly refused to give the analysts estimates of 2018 VCSEL orders, he has problems of
1-is the iPhone 8 launch going to be the mega-success touted?
2- will Lumentum be able to DELIVER on quality and quantity and price, the word 'constrained' appeared - great for us not so good for an Apple OEM
3 no one can be totally sure that Apple will ramp the 3D sensing into iPads and all other models at the end of next year, however likely that now seems
4 he doesn't know what Samsung, Huawei, Xaiomi are going to do -if they copy Apple exactly WHERE is the capacity gonna come from -LOVELY again for IQE

I bet BIG that because of the innovation and applications enabled by 3D sensing that this is going to be a monster
Till Monday
S

[drago] 12/8/2017 10:47

grab
wouldnt surprise me either.


ill add my thanks to sweenoid for keeping me in at the heights of 40p! and holding on at the giddy 80s.
i dont understand the technical stuff except that the eps in 3 years time at a pe of ,say 20, gives an share price of a lot higher that 130.
imho

[grabster] 12/8/2017 10:33

I shall not be surprised (delighted, but not surprised) if the IQE share price exceeds 190p before the end of September 2017 - more than 45% higher than now in about 7 weeks.

[sheep_herder] 12/8/2017 10:09

Sorry sweenoid - you've explained it very well at least twice. If people don't want to read/listen then explainin' a third time isn't going to be much help. Perhaps someuwin could update the header with a guide to the tech?

Regarding broker forecasts, they're not really worth the paper they're written on. The information they provide is useful, sometimes, but the price targets aren't any help. For example, Peel Hunt, why they have an official target of 135p when they release the VCSEL note giving guidance of upside with a median target of 6.2p EPS or 155p additional at a PER of 25. They fully expect a massive uptick in EPS but are guiding about half of what they must be internally modelling.

I think this continued buying, even through the Trump effect, must be people taking positions based on this. Hopefully the forthcoming results will provide some detail on their expected 2018 earnings and a full rerate occurs in a short period once those who are missing the hints finally understand.

[grabster] 12/8/2017 10:08

I just searched Advfn threads to see if I could find any sensible explanation of the nonsense of brokers/analysts undated price targets. Came across this from 12 years ago(!) since when it appears that nothing has changed:

[monkeywench1] 12/8/2017 09:36

Candide is a must read.

[hexode] 12/8/2017 09:25

Sweenoid
As ever thanks for your research. Your mention “no factory based issues” This is one area of caution I can see at the moment. I wonder what the wastage rate is on wafer production. On a lighter not you used the word Panglossian which set me off on a new line of research. I wonder if Voltaire would have tucked some IQE shares away?

[hammerd2] 12/8/2017 08:54

You can't chart analyst forecast guesses. They make them up based on latest or new information to hand. Or they BS the gullible into buying dog stocks to clear overhangs held by their evil paymasters. Depending on your view of analysts.

[gersemi] 12/8/2017 08:53

Sweenoid needs to start charging a professional fee for the information and insights he provides to IQE and potential IQE holders. I know some people pay considerable amounts of money to access the type of knowledge this poster delivers for nothing

I am certain that many on here have made considerable sums in IQE but they probably would have sold by now if it wasn't for the insights offered by Sweenoid.

[sweenoid] 12/8/2017 08:09

C'mon Sheepy -explain
Data centres are all about Indium phosphide photonics for IQE, it's nothing to do with Macoms GAN business ( our GAN on silicon ). The audit was ALLabout the use of Macoms ( and hence IQE's) GAN in a new range of base-stations ( think super duper telephone mast)aimed at 4G LTE, 4G LTE global roaming and then 1GHZ, and 5G. It's VERY BIG business, there are going to be a huge number of these proliferating worldwide.

Don't think 5G is too far away for us to generate business NOW, it ain't

So Macoms additional data centre capacity is nothing to do with the audit, but it's a great sign that a very significant part of our business-supplying the hyperscale guys is and will be doing gangbuster business for years to come :-)
S

[sheep_herder] 12/8/2017 07:27

Dexter5, not good with the difference between their product lines either by the look of it. ;-)

[rackers1] 12/8/2017 01:50

Onwards and upwards.II's are obviously in this this week. Keeping within the 3pct .

[dexter5] 11/8/2017 23:57

Not good with links but note that Macom have bought additional capacity for Data centre products today See Compound Semiconductor Today 11/8/17. Would seem to indicate that the audit went well .

[dr_smith] 11/8/2017 21:26

Sweenoid:
"Does anyone know what they are obliged to say if asked by the analysts - are they obliged to give accurate answers or can they be 'woolly' ?"

My guess (not IQE specific) is..
Analysts are the same as any other third party, company have no legal obligation to them so not obliged to answer - and I would consider it morally and legally wrong for them to furnish analysts with information they withhold from uninvited shareholders, their owners.
..But could be held accountable if they deliberately mislead.. as we know from recent legal cases for FTSE co's.

From that.. I guess they can be woolly IF intention is to protect privacy/privelaged/NDA info..but if woolly to mislead.. that could lend itself to legal action.. if and when any disadvantaged party found out they had been deliberately misled.
All IMO :-)

[sailastra] 11/8/2017 17:45

Sweenoid, I join those in thanking you for the great work that you do here..
As to your question above, the most important thing is that the company manage expectations rather than fuel over expectation, always better to beat than to fall short....

[sailastra] 11/8/2017 17:35

This Welsh firework appears to be heading into the outer regions of the atmosphere, fantastic....I am making over 700% so far and becoming increasingly confident....The rules might suggest that it is right to take a profit but sometimes the right thing to do is believe the positive news and enjoy the adventure...

[sweenoid] 11/8/2017 17:21

Since IQE are at the start of the 'food chain' they should have very good visibility over orders for the rest of 2017, they will also have 3 weeks more time than Lumentum to observe the order- book. I asked about capacity and utilisation at the AGM, the previous year it was around 50% , this year no answer was forthcoming ;-)
What they did say, was that capacity had been increased significantly in 2016 and then talked about how long it would take to add extra capacity to satisfy any increased demand - answer 9 months.

So it's obvious that they are at full capacity or near it for the VCSEL wafers and the ramp started in May ( I guess they wait about 6-8 weeks to get paid per wafer). By September 5th they really should have a good handle on revenues per month/ units per day/ week/month being produced, let's hope there are no factory based issues. With this in mind analysts asking the right questions should get a very good idea of figures, although I am not sure they will be privy to cost per wafer sold or revenue per wafer.

Does anyone know what they are obliged to say if asked by the analysts - are they obliged to give accurate answers or can they be 'woolly' ? I would imagine they have to be frank and honest....surely. Since we know there are supply issues that will exist through 20-7 and into 2018 , surely very accurate numbers should be available to the analysts. The extrapolation into 2018 is of course the most interesting guesstimate , but it looks like pricing per unit will remain the same and not decrease, due to shortage of supply. Not often that a wafer supplier has a strong position at the pricing negotiating table - this should be great for margins.

Can't believe that closing share price strength
S