Ip Share Discussion Threads

[guildedge] 10/9/2019 17:10

One broker still rates this at 165p or so. (Target. That seems crazy.)

Question is how reasonable are their valuations of these private firm?

110p vs 63p close.
They re evaluated their holdings in many firms. 54M vs (91.3m).
'The largest contributors to unrealised gains on the revaluation of investments were Istesso Limited (£24.7m) and First Light Fusion Limited (£10.4m). These unrealised gains were principally offset by unrealised losses on the revaluation of PsiOxus Therapeutics Limited (£10.9m), Topivert Limited (£10.7m), AIM-quoted Circassia Pharmaceuticals plc (£8.4m), Impression Technologies Limited (£7.2m), Autifony Therapeutics Limited (£7.1m) and Creavo Medical Technologies Limited (£6.5m)2F[3].'

Group lost 49.5m. Of which 36.7m from it's portfolio. So it's burnt through 13m in other costs. They lost nearly 293.8 million in 2018. When will the portfolio start to actually rise in value? At what point will Woodford decide to sell up in some of these other investments?

What is fair vaule here? Why does the market discount the value by 40%? The reality is if they decided to sell up everything today they would likely not get near 1.1bn.

Perhaps the Woodford taint is holding this back. That an where investors value will come from long term.

[bjfanc] 10/9/2019 07:47

Just under 40 per cent discount to NAV.

[guildedge] 09/9/2019 17:11

Closed at 69.5p. So up 15p from the low. Does this mean seller is clear now? Someone is definately buying here. All speculation on no news? I have not done the maths on all their investments here.

Maybe the view is the assets are worth more than the current share price? See what happens.

[bamboo2] 09/9/2019 16:55

My last market price based chart shows a potential turn for today.
If I had to say one way or the other, I'd say we are at or very near an interim high.

[guildedge] 07/9/2019 23:46

Could be 1-2 funds involved here.T Rowe Price and Fidelity? Morningstar suggests both have holdings here now?


FT also shows these 2 in major shareholders?
Telstra Super Pty Ltd.as of 02 Aug 2019 16.80m 1.59%
Progeny 3, Inc.as of 02 Aug 2019.

Has the share actually fallen too far? It's a positive sign if funds are buying in at these prices? I still don't see where the investors return is long term unless the share prices starts to rise and one of these investment becomes the next Google. So far yet to happen.

[bamboo2] 06/9/2019 14:22

Ints out early next week.
I guess this is a speculative bounce.
Anyone here buying it?

[bamboo2] 29/8/2019 08:30

Contagion probably not limited to Woodford.
Haven't checked how Invesco are performing, anyone else?

Guy on Gloomberg mentioning some passive funds as sitting targets. Not sure of the specifics.

[p1nkfish] 29/8/2019 08:27

Lack of transparency on the unlisted element. They can go down hard and fast but a likely delay before IPO shareholders find out.

Coming crunch, not yet showing in the real world but IPO a harbinger along with others that lack transparency and liquidity.

My observation is now hindsight so none too useful but not finished yet so think still more downside.

[spectoacc] 29/8/2019 06:54

Agree, going lower and NAV going a lot lower. Woody has to sell - but to whom?

[p1nkfish] 28/8/2019 18:09

If the expected slowdown hits I envisage Substantial NAV pressure.

The current price might be discounting that but not yet sufficiently.

[guildedge] 28/8/2019 17:07

The ironic thing is I don't think Woodford has actually sold any shares here.

St James's Place however.
hxxps://citywire.co.uk/funds-insider/news/st-jamess-place-offloads-500m-of-woodfords-stocks/a1255926

IP Group are also investors in one of those shares. My gut is SJP are still selling. Which suggests even at these prices they can't find a buyer?

Results on 10/09/2019. If anything the good news might be the market over reacted to the Woodford issue? There is no simple way to remove him from IP Group and all the other investments IP Group hold.

[guildedge] 11/8/2019 21:37

Can't read most of it as not a paid up Telegraph reader. Any thoughts? It gives him an easy way out here at a profit!

[guildedge] 08/8/2019 20:47

Woodford owns nearly 9.6% of Burford. Invesco 13%+. They both just lost 140m and 210m respectively. Unless either dumped stock before the crash?

Problem here is between them they still own 40% of IP Group.

If their funds keep taking big hits like this investors will want their money back putting further pressure on IP Group. Especially if investors are forced to sell. Woodford has waited here and on other shares and it is costing him millions.

You have to really worry about Invesco too. Too closely linked to Woodford. His losses must be mounting up here. Muddy Waters can target 1 share a year and cause them big losses. A video online already links Burford to IP Group. Albeit today IP group recovered slightly. Maybe because the share price is heavily depressed already?



hxxps://citywire.co.uk/funds-insider/news/woodford-and-invesco-hit-as-burford-crashes-on-short-attack/a1257551

It's possible a short attack could target IP Groups results in September. So far only 1 firm seems to be above 0.5% and shorting IP Group.

Nervous time to own any shares right now.

[p1nkfish] 08/8/2019 16:24

Woodford doesn't help.

[p1nkfish] 08/8/2019 16:24

Illiquidity is a killer currently, especially if raising cash waiting for opportunities to rise Oct/Nov and just around Oct 31st. Just my thought, worth zero.

[brucie5] 08/8/2019 11:48

I'd be inclined to wait for capitulation here, which will be quite clear on the chart.

[porsche1945] 08/8/2019 11:40

You say must have value, does it? A lot of cash hungry start ups. May just be a pile of liabilities constantly having to issue new shares to stay in biz, dilution ahead.

Weif down nearly 4pc in 24 hours on Burford collapse, anything Woodford related viewed as toxic is also a problem, if its shown he and that idiot Barnett at Invesco broke the rules the final drop will be brutal. Cant see how board will allow him to stay on at wpct.

[guildedge] 07/8/2019 16:58

At some point there has to be a bottom here as all these shares and private holdings must have a value. If funds are waiting to invest perhaps they are waiting for the results or for Woodford to show his cards here. I think he will look for an ouright buyer rather than sell bit by bit. Assuming he sells.

I can't believe all these assets were valued double what they are truly worth? As share is almost a 1/3rd of what the broker values them at. Maybe this is more down to IP Groups model here. They have copied Woodford in many respects and his funds value has collapsed. Has anyone tried to compare the fall on his fund to IP Group? His Woodford equity Income fund was down 9% last year and 24% this year to August. This fund holds 3.3% weight of IP group. Also 2.58% weight of Oxford Nanopore.

What is more likely is that the broker has simply not changed their value here. We saw this with IQE where some brokers were touting 180p valuations when the share price was way below half this.

I just hope IP Group are honest about the true valuations when it comes to the results.

[p1nkfish] 03/8/2019 17:22

Theres a chance some forced sellers needing liquidity and now having to sell something that is itself a basket of many illiquid holdings. Woodford DNA on it?

[brucie5] 03/8/2019 10:01

30p looks like the absolute historic bottom for this from 2008/9. Some support at 40? Other than that I have not idea why it's at such a discount, except that peeps take Tsomev's view and decline to risk anything in a downwards shoot. At some stage, extreme value will surely out.

[bjfanc] 03/8/2019 07:16

NAV was around 115p per share so approaching a 50 per cent discount.

[p1nkfish] 02/8/2019 19:05

Yes, made money from MWG.
Very little is worth holding forever.
Buy when under valued, sell when over valued, tends to be a good thing to do.

[buywell3] 02/8/2019 18:51

Like Modern Water(MDW) for example

One you liked a lot I seem to remember when it shot to 30p

Then you stopped posting


Currently looking at 1p or administration


And according to the header IPO have :


Modern Water plc 23.2%









p1nkfish

1 Aug '19 - 22:02 - 808 of 811

Ridiculous state given the breadth of the portfolio but few liquidity events. A lesson in this for everyone involved.

[p1nkfish] 02/8/2019 17:27

Liquidity matters.

% of market cap attributable to Ox Nano is increasing and with it risk if that has issues or is valued inappropriately.