Ip Share Discussion Threads

[bamboo2] 19/1/2020 20:28

Hi p1nk, are you still holding?

I completely get what you are saying.

Now that IPO is seemingly trading at a reasonable discount and Woodford is nearly out of the picture, can you see the potential for an improvement in the outlook?

[p1nkfish] 19/1/2020 13:26

Shareholder value destruction.

[bamboo2] 19/1/2020 13:01

It looks possible that many of the smaller companies were floated before they were fully ready to stand on their own feet.

This is especially true of those co's favoured by Woody and Invesco, where large percentages held by them became vulnerable, due to the need for cash to be able to fund redemptions.

I guess that is true of many AIM based companies selling a story, be it pharma/tech or natural resources.

===================

I have started work on a new thread where I will display more detailed charts of both IPO and the portfolio's quoted holdings.

The structure of the IPO is slightly confusing, where IPO has bought out others, so I will probably ask for some help!

IPO has taken over Techtran [2005], Fusion IP [2014], Parkwalk [2016], Touchstone, formerly Imperial Innovations [2017]

[guildedge] 19/1/2020 10:36

I was looking at Autifony Therapeutics Ltd. Their revenue rose sharply in 2018 and they were making a lot of money. Not much info on them for 2019. They had some news mid 2019 which seemed positive.

hxxps://autifony.com/

CWR market cap 520m so Their stake is worth close to 100M. So a definite 30-40m gain.

Xeros took a hammer in 2019. Lost 95%. 19p-1p. 10M loss?
MWG 8p to 1.2p. - Market cap 1m. 14% stake. So loss of 1m or so.
TRX 6p to 1.55p. Reocovered 0.55p in New year from 1p-1.55p. 5-6m loss?
Itaconix - 4.5- 1.5p now. Lost 66%. Market cap 4m. Loss 1.2m or so.
Diurnal 22p-27p. 40% stake. 23M market cap.
Applied Graphene Materials 35p to 17.5p. Lost 50%. Mcap 4m. 15% holding. 1m or so loss.
Intelligent Ultrasound 7.75 to 11p. Up on the year.
Mirriad Advertising 15.75 to 16.75p
Deepmatter group 2.4 to 1.95p.
hVIVO plc 27.5 to 16.5p - 14mcap. 15.7% holding.
Avacta Group 30.5-18.75p
Actual Experience 210 - 95p Lost over 50%. 22% stake. 12m loss?
Circassia 48p to 24p. Has risen in new year by 6p from 19-25p. Albeit it was 100p 1-2 years back. (Do they hold these any more?)
Getech Group 31p - 25.5p.

IXICO plc - IP group sold for 34p. Now 78p. Surged to 93p at one point in January. Fallen back now. Big mistake selling here.

Overall I think CWR, Oxford nanopore and autifony should help cover a lot of these losses from the smaller firms. Many of the firms that have lost 50%+ in value the stakes were not worth a huge amount. I think if you focus on the 4-5 firms doing well here they should help the overall portfolio value.

So maybe results won't be too bad? They estimate 1.1 billion portfolio last year. Wonder what figure they will come up with for 2019. CWR gain was 700-80p in 19 but 40-50p in 2019. I have not looked at every account for the private firms. Too much effort and most don't provide full accounts.

[brucie5] 18/1/2020 22:18

Well done that man! It's a start, at least...

[bamboo2] 18/1/2020 15:03

Oxford Nanopore 16.4% Dilution, adjusted 3/8/2020 to 15.8%. 13/10/2020 diluted to 15%.
04/05/2021 diluted to 14.4% value £359m
======================================================================
1200
ONT 9.99% [82,062,144 shares]

Multi sector platforms
CIC 1.0% [£3.1m 31/12/2020]
OSI 2.3% [£20.6m 31/12/2020]

1.8% in Hinge Health, valued at GBP62.8m [29/10/2021] flotation planned [US] 2022

30
4.4% [31/12/2020]
1
21.4% 02/02/2021 placing diluted to 18.06% 18/2/2021 reduced to 15.38%, 02/3/2021 further reduced to 11.98% 14/10/2022 diluted down to 2.94%
4
29.59% as of 17/7/2020 23/9/2020 Springer shares issued dilution to 28.22%
21/1/2022 diluted to 6.83%
5
36.25% [6/3/2020]
9
11.2% [31/12/2019] 11.36% increased holding in placing dated 9/6/2021
10
25.26% [06/01/2021] IPO&Parkwalk holdings added together
12
13.1% [13.72% 5/4/2020] 13.69% [22/5/2020] 9.29% [05/10/2021]
13
13.5% diluted to 10.8% [31/3/2021]
14
14.9% 18/2/2021 diluted to 11.46%
15
25.8% [Updated 17/01/2023IP Group 56,740,641 20.96% Parkwalk Advisors Ltd 35,965,600 13.29 %]
[MED will become IUG 21/12/2020]
11
12.8% dilution 1/9/2020 15,901,053 3.03%
Deepverge (formerly Integumen) bought out MWG completed 9/12/2020
31/12/2020 0.3%
31
2.8% 09/6/2021
32
[Ex-Kuur Pharma] [11%, valued at £5.2m, 30/6/2021]

[brucie5] 18/1/2020 09:04

Guildedge
18 Jan '20 - 00:03 - 940 of 940


To be fair to IPO it would be hard for the shares trading on the stock market to go much lower. So their has to be some value here. It is up 15p or so from it's all time low.

There are a few interesting private firms they are invested in that could be doing well. Be interesting to see what they value the portfolio in the coming 1-2 months
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Yes. I had a look at Modern Water the other day, and like Xeros, it's down to virtually nothing, despite interesting technology. There clearly are not the sales at this stage. So beyond Nanopore and Ceres, which make up about 40% of the value here, it would good to know what are the other meaningfully income generating companies here that might actually pull the cart forwards?

[guildedge] 18/1/2020 00:03

Invesco reduced by about 1.25%. Just want their money? Which would only be about 12.5m shares. Begs question who were all the other trades from? There was a cancelled 8.8m trade. Still leaves 41m traded. So someone else clearly traded on 16th.

Daily trades still well above 1m here.

To be fair to IPO it would be hard for the shares trading on the stock market to go much lower. So their has to be some value here. It is up 15p or so from it's all time low.

There are a few interesting private firms they are invested in that could be doing well. Be interesting to see what they value the portfolio in the coming 1-2 months,

[tel5] 17/1/2020 12:25

cwr going from strength to strength ipo have large % and this not reflected in the share price yet

[guildedge] 16/1/2020 16:54

50m shares traded today. Only 3 investors over 50m shares. I doubt the Railway Group would be selling this early on. Lansdowne Partners have not really being doing much. Ivestco have 200m shares. So this could be batch 1 of 4.

WOW CWR have increased by nearly 50-60% recently, Impressive.

[nw99] 16/1/2020 15:50

Bought here nice chart forming

[brucie5] 16/1/2020 09:36

bamboo2
16 Jan '20 - 09:32 - 935 of 935


Have been unwell over past few weeks, but hope to get new thread going soon.
--------------------------------------------
Sorry to hear that. Get better soon!

[bamboo2] 16/1/2020 09:32

Brucie, agree. I would anticipate the discount here closing further as the constituents recover some of their value.

I would like to see management realising some cash from the more successful companies in the portfolio.

Have been unwell over past few weeks, but hope to get new thread going soon.

Re, Invesco, we do not know how urgent is their need for cash.

[brucie5] 16/1/2020 09:08

CWR (Ceres Power) current mcap is 475m.
IPO mcap is 690m.
IPO owns 18% of CWR, which is a value of 85m.
85m is 12% of 690.
Therefore, 12% of the mcap of IPO is represented by its holding in CWR

CWR (along with ITM) in a very hot sector. So I expect this to grow.

[spectoacc] 16/1/2020 06:58

Invesco been dumping a lot of smaller stuff, RLE is another. Difficult to tell if they're moving away from it, or simply top-slicing everything on redemptions.

[guildedge] 15/1/2020 22:17

My gut is Invesco have started selling again after the share auction finished. Matches in with volumes of 1-2.5m+ a day. They will gradually reduce here.

Could be another seller but seems unlikely. From 75p to 65p. Could go lower. If it is Invesco at what price will the volume trades kick in? Are they just top slicing?

[babbler] 15/1/2020 12:48

Do you have a link?

[barkjon230] 15/1/2020 10:45

I've also taken a position, not sure why it fell today, Questor tends to give small caps a boost when tipped

[my retirement fund] 14/1/2020 11:33

I see the value here has been highlighted by Questor today. I've taken a punt

[brucie5] 08/1/2020 14:40

An old axiom of the stock market has it that a stock that falls by over 50% will then decline to 25%. This has fulfilled that... from a spike to 2.60 down to 60p. We are now at the reversal of the 5 year decline / chart. Flag forming at the bottom if it can be sustained. From last year, I notice that the bod now has the freedom to use cash either to buy shares or reward shareholders. I think the former might be an effective way of marking any successful future exit.