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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ip Group Plc | IPO | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.80 | 1.90% | 42.85 | 16:29:58 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41.15 | 41.00 | 42.95 | 42.85 | 42.05 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| GENERAL FINANCIAL |
| Announcement Date | Type | Currency | Dividend Amount | Ex Date | Record Date | Payment Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2023 | Interim | GBP | 0.0051 | 10/08/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 04/09/2023 |
| 08/03/2023 | Final | GBP | 0.0076 | 25/05/2023 | 26/05/2023 | 22/06/2023 |
| 03/08/2022 | Interim | GBP | 0.005 | 11/08/2022 | 12/08/2022 | 20/09/2022 |
| 17/03/2022 | Final | GBP | 0.0072 | 26/05/2022 | 27/05/2022 | 30/06/2022 |
| 05/08/2021 | Interim | GBP | 0.0048 | 12/08/2021 | 13/08/2021 | 27/09/2021 |
| Final | GBP | 0.01 | 13/05/2021 | 14/05/2021 | 16/06/2021 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 20/11/2024 17:12 by craigso Tried to catch the falling knife this morning. Should have slept in and saved myself a few hundred quid...Anybody with a reasonable investment horizon shouldn't be too concerned if this is a short play, though. 1. IPO will be buying back shares at a lower price = more accretive 2. The short seller will eventually need to cover, and will be in trouble if IPO announces a bigger buyback / tender offer |
Posted at 19/11/2024 14:40 by craigso We're probably mostly long on this thread, but I struggle to see a viable strategy for shorting IP Group.After all, cash + Featurespace + listed companies is fairly close to the current market cap. IPO could easily launch a tender / large buyback and blow away any shorts. I also don't see how a long ONT (+ other IP components) and short IPO semi-hedge strategy makes a lot of sense. It could just be a very short term play on bad sentiment around drugmakers with the RFK appointment??? |
Posted at 19/11/2024 07:51 by bamboo2 nigel, afaik, management order and write the rules of the buyback. I understand they don't do the actual buying, as this would possibly create a conflict of interest.Another poster 'palisz' suggested [although I might have misunderstood] that management made the instruction. See post 3310 "...The formula goes like this. Excluding opening and closing cross the broker targets the VWAP ( volume weighted average price) IPO just has to say what percentage it wants. At the end of the previous tranche of buy back this was set as high as 20%. This time it seems to be around 10% but I haven't been checking so much. The normal range is 5 - 20% depending on liquidity and the CEO's whim! The CEO can change the % at any time, without notice. With IPO this has happened a number of times. Often it depends if there is further buying power to come." |
Posted at 09/10/2024 16:03 by craigso CHRY and IPO have similar market caps.CHRY has a very clear £40m buyback in operation with another £60m promised (and a debt facility signed to start spending that £60m very soon). IPO has reminded us of a previously-offered £10m and a "maybe we'll give you some more later" despite having far more cash in the bank (even before sales proceeds). I'm happy to go way over-weight on CHRY and wait for IPO. I suspect that they'll spend the £10m - to little avail I'd imagine - before announcing anything more substantial. Lots of time to get back in or to trade the news when it happens... |
Posted at 20/9/2024 07:51 by craigso The market is really slow off the mark this morning with IPO.CHRY has moved up 4% on the Featurespace "news" and IPO has barely budged... (even though IIRC there's more upside vs. NAV in IPO) |
Posted at 08/8/2024 18:18 by wunderbar I’ve thrown caution to the wind and added another couple tranches of stock at 36p. I only topped up a few days ago at 37.5p, but since then something’s been playing on my mind - would I look back with huge regret if I didn’t take further advantage of this shakedown. I had to take the punt as my overwhelming belief is the market has significantly mispriced this stock.I don’t often get excited about a share, but IPO is a rare exception. I’ve been crunching the numbers over and over, saying to myself, what am I missing here? Am I massively over-estimating gross cash c.£200m [20p per share], noting this forms a large part of my calculation. We know ONT valuation is c.10/11p per share, which means the market is almost disregarding the rest of the portfolio. Excluding cash and ONT stake, the market values the many remaining investments at just 5p/£50m whereas IPO reckon 84p/£840m. It’s this huge disconnect which has created a seemingly unbelievable opportunity to make a significant return on capital at this price point. I’m mindful my NAV estimation is derived from y/e figure 114.8p. We might well discover it has fallen further, but surely not to the extent where a share price of 36p is validated. Next month’s Interims will shed further light on this matter. At this moment in time the cash element is more important to me than NAV as this acts as a huge safety buffer at current price 36p. Besides, you can’t argue with stone cold cash, whereas NAV is highly debatable as evident here. We’ve seen high volumes traded these past few days, easily outstripping buyback numbers. There are suggestions a large seller is driving down the price [would explain sudden 15% drop few days ago]. If that’s the case they must be desperate bailing out at rock bottom prices c.36-42p. In the short term, my concern is, if someone is dumping stock, how much are they dumping, and how many days/weeks/months before they’re finished. A prolonged sell-off could depress the share price further. There’s been no RNS notification to suggest a major shareholder is dumping stock/reducing their stake, but maybe one will appear soon. I was encouraged by this morning’s RNS re portfolio realisations ytd of over £43m [majority attributable to sale of Garrison Technology], completed at or above carrying values. This should give shareholders some comfort re accuracy of IPO’s investment valuations. IPO also expects to receive c.£8.4m from Intelligent Ultrasound Group’s sale of clinical AI business to GE Healthcare for £40.5m, of which IPO holds 20.8% stake. You’d think all this positive news would impact the sp! Unfortunately not, the market appears completely uninterested, no movement at 36p. I note Directors plan to increase the buyback programme to a total of £30m, ytd they’ve bought back 29m shares, c.3% of shares in issue, for a total of £13m. Fantastic! Let's review the highlights of this buyback to date. During this period £200m has been wiped off IPO’s market cap. FACT. The share price has fallen 36%. FACT. Discount to NAV [114.8p] has widened from c.51% to c.69%. FACT. This buyback has NOT “enhanced shareholder value” nor stabilised the share price. FACT. Majority of shareholders have suffered significant capital erosion. FACT. Anyone who thinks otherwise is clearly in denial. FACT. [said with tongue firmly in cheek] I’m a great believer in value will out. It’s just a case of waiting patiently for the tide to turn, as it always does. Another share I’ve been aggressively buying this past month is BP, and similarly to IPO, its share price has fallen heavily despite ongoing buyback programme. But at least BP pays me a 5.5% dividend while I wait for my 550p price target to materialise. Given my average price is now below 40p, I’ll be looking to exit IPO c.75-85p. In the meantime, assuming it is a large seller depressing the sp, I’ll make a foolish prediction and say once seller has cleared out we’ll see a sharp upturn c.42-45p, thereafter 50-55p within 3-6 months. |
Posted at 08/8/2024 14:24 by ghhghh Oak Bloke normally posts here but this is his most recent IPO updateThe first was IP Group. The reason for this was its 11% fall today to a year low of 35.8p (I got 36.02p on my buy). This is despite several pieces of good news which I’ve explained to readers in other articles (In listed holding Tissue Regenix and Intelligent Ultrasound), the recovery in Oxford Nanopore which is down today (as could be expected in a tech sell off) but also ONT’s recent fund raise adding Novo Nordisk to its list of owners (7%) is following a substantial amount of due diligence carried out by them and deciding to take a position but also begin buying ONT shares in the market. I have explained that the far larger market for Gene Sequencing is in clinical and industrial applications and not just in the laboratory. Until now much of the work has been in a lab. Its relationship with Novo and others will drive forward its presence in this lucrative and rapidly growing market. But the good news doesn’t stop there. I use the word “eagle eyed” for a select portion of my readers but I was eagle eyed today too. I realised that I have intelligence about certain IP Group holdings which have a bearing on the H1 update which is imminent. I speak of Featurespace - an IP Group holding - but also a CHRY holding. CHRY’s June 2024 update has it 20% up compared to December 2023. If I apply that to IP Group’s holding that’s a £15m gain for IPO. If I do the same thing to Bramble which is also held by HGEN and which also released it’s Q2 update compared to December 2021 is a 21% gain. That’s a £2.8m gain for IPO. Adding the Hysata upround, Garrison sale and IUG and TGX uplifts the post period gains almost equal the post period loss from ONT and that’s considering ONT has fallen some 12% since last week too (about -£10m). That puts IPO on gains of £74.6m and losses of -£80m YTD, and therefore on a 74.3% discount to its estimated NAV, and on the basis the buy backs continue at the same pace for the rest of 2024 the NAV per share by the end of 2024 will be near £1.40 a share - even without further good news. It is utterly mispriced based on feeling and fact - so I swooped. |
Posted at 05/8/2024 15:42 by wunderbar I’m not sure what’s going on here, but IPO’s share price has tanked 15% [c.£65m wiped off] in just two days, including -9.7% today. I know the market is a bloodbath right now, but nevertheless I can’t see any justification to warrant a fall of this magnitude.Perhaps IPO has been dragged down by ongoing US tech sell-off [tarnished with same brush]. Or maybe word is out that something nasty lurks in forthcoming Interims. Or maybe we are in the final phase of IPO’s long standing decline and from here starts the recovery [wishful thinking]. Whatever the reason [if any], I topped up again this morning at 37.5p, only to see it drop another 4% within a few hours. Talk about a horror show. As I write, the share price is now 36p [69% discount to NAV 114.8p]. We’re now at a level not seen since 2010/2011. Come Interims, I’ll be honing in on NAV, cash, and any potential sales of assets in order to assess my target price of c.85p. It’ll be interesting to see if there has been a material slowdown in NAV decline, noting previous two years its fallen 14% and 20%. Needless to say, management need to stop the rot and instil some confidence in the IPO proposition. I've done a very quick/rough breakdown of IPO's NAV [114.8p]. I'm going to assume gross cash has fallen from £235m to £200m [purely to make it a nice round number] = 20p a share. They own almost 10% stake in ONT = c.10p a share. So, based on today's closing price of 36p, leaves the rest of IPO's portfolio valued at just 6p, opposed to NAV 85p [93% discount]. Using an extreme example, even if headline NAV dropped by 25% to 86p, strip out cash and ONT stake, the balance of the portfolio would equate to NAV 56p, opposed to today's 6p valuation, representing a discount of 89%. Needless to say, something doesn't stack up here, either this is an absolute bargain right now or there is something seriously wrong with IPO's valuations. The longer the share price remains at these depressed levels the harder it will be for the CEO to justify the £20m share buyback programme - neither has it enhanced shareholder value [in terms of putting cash in shareholders pockets], nor supported the share price [instead, suffered significant capital erosion]. And just to highlight the most eye opening fact of all - IPO has likely spent c.£10m [pro-rata] on buybacks since December, during which time the market cap has fallen by a staggering £200m. That's certainly not my definition of enhancing shareholder value. If management decide to continue with the buyback policy going into 2025 then I suggest they reinstate the dividend as well, they can comfortably afford to do both. My investment in IPO is still in its infancy, merely just over a month now, but already it’s been a rocky ride. I can’t deny it’s been a disappointment to date but that’s investing for you, never plain sailing. In 12 months from now I’d like to think things will look a lot brighter for shareholders. |
Posted at 01/8/2024 06:30 by palisz Since ONT represents now 25% of IPO's market cap, kind of important!The deal is oversubscribed and Novo likely a continuing buyer of ONT as didn't get full allocation. Be interesting to see today how it goes, the impact on IPO and when IPO might actually say anything ! IPO half yearly results due out probably tomorrow! I've not seen an announcement saying when? |
Posted at 23/7/2024 22:52 by wunderbar At this moment in time IPO is unloved and firmly out of favour, which is arguably the best time to buy. The share price has now dipped below its Covid low of 41p seen in April 2020. Seems crazy. What on earth is happening here?This is a stock I’ve kept tabs on for almost a decade, though never really considered it a serious investment proposition until recently. In June the share price fell 22% which prompted me to take a more thorough look at IPO and convinced myself to make an investment. I’ve subsequently made three purchases this past fortnight ranging from 40.6p [today] to 43p. My aim is to double my money c.85p within a timeframe of 2-3 years. I’d definitely classify IPO as a slow burner, many of their investments [c.66 holdings] will take years [if ever] to reach fruition. That said, I do think the market is completely ignoring the huge potential here. Based on current price 40.5p, IPO currently trades on a 65% discount to NAV [114.8p @ 31 Dec 2023]. Ultimately, I see this as a dull, boring, under the radar, recovery play. My favourite kind of investment. Right now I think IPO is grossly oversold. I can find no logical explanation for the heavy fall in June, and despite positive snippets of news of late this has been completely ignored by the market. These past few weeks the share price has been trading in a tight range c.41-43p, hopefully a sign the decline is bottoming out. Does beg the question, what’s driven the price down to these levels, especially when you consider we are in the midst of a share buyback programme. Well, for starters this particular sector [early stage investment vehicle] is clearly out of favour, the primary problem being a high degree of scepticism with start-up valuations. Take ONT [Oxford Nanopore] as example - floated on LSE in Oct 2021, initially valued at £3.6bn [425p], quickly surged 40% within a few months [710p]. Today it’s valued at £1.05bn [120p], down c.72% from its flotation price and down 83% from its all time high. Many investors will have incurred heavy losses, sucked in by the hype, left with nothing but a bitter taste in their mouths. For many it will be a case of once bitten, twice shy. So you can understand why the market is very weary with these valuations. IPO owns 9.8% of ONT, the value of its holding reduced by £31.9m in 2023. Given ONT is a major holding, seems to me IPO is almost entirely driven by its share price performance. Look at their respective share price charts as evidence of this. On a wider scale, IPO’s NAV y/e 2023 [114.8p] was down almost 14% from 2022 [132.9p] which itself was down 20% on 2021 [167p]. In short, IPO’s NAV has had a torrid couple of years, falling 31% during this time. It’s down to management to unlock the supposed true value of these investments or suffer prolonged market negativity. Let’s hope 2024 results reveal NAV has stabilised/increased opposed to further decline. On to a touchy subject now. I think shareholders have every right to be angry at management re suspension of dividend in favour of share buybacks. Whilst acknowledging the dividend was pretty poor [1.27p per share] I’d still prefer cash in my pocket anytime. I hate it when a company says they are returning cash to shareholders via buybacks. The harsh reality is investors rarely benefit financially. However, I am in favour of buybacks on a large scale, ie. reducing share count by 5-10%. My main gripe here is, and important to note, when IPO announced this value enhancing bonanza they had gross cash of £235m. They could’ve easily subsidised both dividend [c.£13m payout] and share buybacks [£20m] using this cash mountain and still have plenty left over. On this basis I find their decision to suspend the dividend as utterly bizarre. Which brings me onto IPO’s £20m share buyback programme [commenced 19 Dec 2023]. At the time share price was c.55p giving IPO a market cap of c.£570m. So, for example, if they bought £20m of shares @ 55p average this would reduce shares in circulation by c.3.5%. But given share price has since fallen by 26% [now 40.5p] and buybacks are still ongoing, it’s not inconceivable they could end up reducing overall share count by 4-5% by the time the programme is completed end of 2024, a not inconsiderable amount by any means. But...the whole point of this exercise was to enhance shareholder value, as envisaged by the board of directors. Therefore it’s somewhat ironic quite the opposite has occurred - shareholder value has been destroyed. During the course of these buybacks IPO’s market cap has collapsed from £570m to £411m today. All of which makes a mockery of this plan to buy back £20m of shares when to date c.£159m [almost 8 times the total buyback sum] has been wiped off market cap. We’re just past the half way point of 2024 and it’s turning into a very bad year for shareholders whom have [involuntarily] forfeited their dividend, seen share price fall 28%, and without a say in the matter watched the company waste c.£10m [estimated on a pro rata basis] buying back company shares. It’s a common misconception buybacks support a share price. All too often this is not the case, IPO being a prime example. Time to reinstate the dividend? As per RNS dated 18 December 2023, the board of directors declared, “future cash returns are expected to be in the form of share buybacks when the share price discount to NAV exceeds 20%”. These so called future cash returns are not monetary in the traditional sense, the reality is not a single penny from these buybacks will end up in shareholders pockets. As stated earlier, IPO’s last known NAV is 114.8p - using the above 20% discount mechanism implies future buybacks will only stop when share price is 92p or higher. In other words, the share price has to more than double from current price 40.5p. On this basis shareholders will likely not see a dividend for quite some time, possibly another couple years if lucky. I wonder if management will abandon this strategy given they're likely to face a backlash from shareholders at next AGM [unless things drastically improve]. Tell you what though, if the share price doubles from here I won’t give a damn about the dividend as I’ll likely have bailed out c.85p, taken my profits and run for the hills. And I'm sure I won't be the only one. In closing, I have high hopes for IPO, but patience is required. Management’s plan to reduce the chasm between share price and NAV is clearly not working. The fact the discount has widened considerably during a share buyback will not sit well with shareholders, especially with no dividend to compensate them. It’s abundantly clear the market gives no credence to IPO’s NAV valuation. Is this justifiable or not? Well, it’s down to management to prove the market wrong. If they can successfully do this we’ll be laughing all the way to the bank. In the meantime I’ll be disappointed not to see c.50p in the next 2-3 months. |
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