Iog Share Discussion Threads

[g2theary] 22/8/2023 11:47

Nice trade back up to 2.75p plus this time :) Gas heading to 200p per therm for starters ... can't see how it won't rise much more maybe not as high as 650p this time round but I certainly think near to 400p

[jaknife] 21/8/2023 20:28

Goldennuggets87,

”If the bond holders were going to “step in” they would have done so by now.

Why give them a wavier till end of Sep and add 5 mil to the bond if they thought it was going under ;)”

Because such things take time. Cineworld began discussions with its banks in May 2022, failed its financial covenant on 30 June 2022, went into Chapter 11 on 7 Sept 2022 and was finally placed into administration on 31 July 2023.


forfaiter1,

”JN what a load of rubbish.....do you really believe everything you read from analysts? they have not allowed for a drastic increase in the gas price in their analysis and you know it....”

Have they? Or haven’t they? It sounds as if you haven’t even bothered to read the paper?

What if gas prices were to double? What would IOG’s revenues be between now and Sept next year? What cash would be available to repay the bond that’s due then? Can you see how a miracle doubling of gas prices still leaves IOG hopelessly insolvent?

”If the bondholders were so keen to seize the assets surely they would not have given the extension and already claimed the assets..........cash flow is irregular in this industry and the bondholders know that ..........why would they pull the plug before the winter period starts in earnest.....and not allow the company to recover and start paying the bond interest as normal....remember they still have £20m in cash and the first bond payment in an escrow account.....waiting to be paid....”

IOG have defaulted. There is no law that says that the bondholders must wait and see *IF* gas prices spike just in case. On the contrary the bondholders are completely within their rights to just step in and seize everything now (or at least when the waiver expires).

But hey, you don’t have to take my word for it. Simply wait another six weeks to see *IF* the bondholders are a charity rather than an angry group that feel let down by management who want to maximise their recovery by ANY possible means.

JakNife

[forfaiter1] 21/8/2023 16:57

JN what a load of rubbish.....do you really believe everything you read from analysts? they have not allowed for a drastic increase in the gas price in their analysis and you know it....

If the bondholders were so keen to seize the assets surely they would not have given the extension and already claimed the assets..........cash flow is irregular in this industry and the bondholders know that ..........why would they pull the plug before the winter period starts in earnest.....and not allow the company to recover and start paying the bond interest as normal....remember they still have £20m in cash and the first bond payment in an escrow account.....waiting to be paid....

Sure its risky but I would not want to be short at this level with an erratic gas market in the back ground....GL

[goldennuggets87] 21/8/2023 16:50

If the bond holders were going to "step in" they would have done so by now. Why give them a wavier till end of Sep and add 5 mil to the bond if they thought it was going under ;) Big spike in gas prices incoming Shorts will get burnt to the ground

[jaknife] 21/8/2023 16:22

forfaiter1,

"Very good analysis JN but does it allow for an increase in the price of gas going into the winter?"

If you were to download finnCap's note then you could answer that question for yourself.

But regardless, winter is a number of months away but IOG has already defaulted on the bond. IOG needs cash now, immediately! The bondholders have the legal right to step in, put the company into administration and seize ALL of IOG's assets and the only thing that's likely to stop them doing that is being given real hard cash now as opposed to the possible, maybe dream that there might be some cash in the winter.

JakNife

[goldennuggets87] 21/8/2023 14:54

Looks like the strikes on for the Aus LNG plants that supply 10% of the worlds LNG. Uk gas prices are going to explode. Open up H1 and Elgood they will be flowing great rates into high prices.

[forfaiter1] 21/8/2023 14:50

Very good analysis JN but does it allow for an increase in the price of gas going into the winter? a higher gas price could blow Fincaps figures out of the water.....plus a higher gas price could allow H1 and elgood to come back onstream increasing revenue.....all to play for.....imo

[jaknife] 21/8/2023 12:25

There's someone with the name "Robbie" in the Telegram group:



But the donkey doesn't seem to understand the concept of Enterprise Value and hence you'll see that he's focused on the market cap of the equity rather than the total capital that's financing the business.

[johnjames876] 21/8/2023 12:10

Why do you think the share price flashed crashed on Friday that's Robbie He has since going quiet as you will see on twitter and his Jay pumping will increase slowly but he Will strenuously deny selling IOG He is a lying scum bag

[wh123] 21/8/2023 11:09

So the word is robbie is out...pumping jay now...

[johnjames876] 21/8/2023 10:50

Robbie has sold out hence the big drop he is now buying Jay

[mam fach] 20/8/2023 21:51

Interesting comments on LSE.
12p BUY OUT.Nice. I could live with that.
Although was hoping for return to 40p or higher.
GLA

[deltalo] 19/8/2023 15:25

Just takes time, and time will let us soon see. Still holding patiently. Atb.

[jaknife] 19/8/2023 14:33

You are deluded if you think that anyone is going to pay greater than €105m (the €100m bonds plus the 5% fee for agreeing a two month deferral) for an asset that's:

* Forecast to generate revenues for IOG of a mere £26.7m in 2023,
(see here for FinnCap forecasts:

On top of that the business:

* Is forecast to make a loss before tax in 2023 of -£7.3m,
* Is forecast to have negative free cash flow in 2023 of -£25.7m.
* Is forecast to have negative net assets of -£10.0m at year-end,
* Has failed to pay interest on its main bond on time and has breached financial covenants at 30 June,
* Is essentially already in default but continues to trade because of the generosity of the bondholders, and
* has additional debt in the form of a further bond plus decommissioning liabilities.

There is a reason why the market cap is trading as low as it is - because everyone who isn't a deluded retail long knows that IOG is technically insolvent now and that the best case scenario for shareholders is a materially dilutive debt for equity swap that values the equity at less than 0.5p.

The worst case scenario is a sale or administration, which would see bondholders maximise their recovery but shareholders would be wiped out.

That's why GSA Capital Partners LLP are increasing their short position. Because they're financial experts who know what they're doing.

JakNife

[hope67] 18/8/2023 22:41

You do if its get bought out.

[jaknife] 18/8/2023 19:05

You don't need to be "brave" to short an insolvent company!

[hope67] 18/8/2023 18:37

hxxps://shorttracker.co.uk/manager/gsa-capital-partners-llp/ brave or very stupid.

[johnjames876] 18/8/2023 15:01

Robbie is dumping prob gone quiet o the telegram This is what he does

[wh123] 18/8/2023 14:31

New 52 week low incoming but where is Robbie........

[jaknife] 18/8/2023 12:48

I can't imagine that any institution would be so stupid as to take part in a placing for such an obviously bust company.

[onetomany] 18/8/2023 12:35

Took a few grands worth at 1.845.

[mam fach] 18/8/2023 11:48

I thought price drop might bring new buyers in.
Good Luck