Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 11/6/2014 12:18

Cheers awol

The major is stuffed there. The supreme court has ordered the closure of the wells and jailed the boss.

They have no water, you can't produce iodine without water.

It sounds material and hence the union bosses are in town. I'm guessing this is a breaking story and the local media will be spelling out what is going on when they wake up today.

Time there now 0720 hrs and that report kicked off just before midnight. I'm guessing Cosayach passed on the bad news late yesterday.

[1madmarky] 11/6/2014 12:07

I'm sure Lance has been mulling over what to do with the plants we have. But remember, they are producing positive cashflow from all of them and as the price of iodine goes up they will be cash cows, just not as good as io 2. But they should give a nice income stream to support the purchase of plenty of mobile units which in turn will use the crystallisation capacity at the plants, so it's not actually a bad position to be in. Hopefully the mobile units will give us the explosive growth we are after once we have customers for that iodine.

[che7win] 11/6/2014 12:06

Thanks,
That clears that thought up.

Sudden jump in the offer price, wonder if we have a buyer.

[joeblogg2] 11/6/2014 12:03

Really appreciate the feedback from the AGM. I was going to attend but work commitments and having already attended another AGM last week I thought I better not upset the boss. Confidence amongst pi's slowly returning as many have lost their shirt here and funds permitting will start to buy a few more.

[sweetnodude] 11/6/2014 11:57

Che, they made it clear it wasn't an option to physically move an existing plant. The exact costing of every future decision was the most impressive part of the presentation and left me feeling confident in holding for the foreseeable...

[awolagain] 11/6/2014 11:56

Superg

I will of course....be later today...it seems for the quick summary is the Lord mayor is under pressure from the local work force to keep it running as there is no employment opportunities if it is all closed down.

QPP...wow...a quick buy at 10p for a day or two would have been worth it...missed it. Hawk news good but Mr M not convinced as normal...need to sort out finance me thinks?

[che7win] 11/6/2014 11:46

Sweet,
They should seriously think about moving 3 to a better location, we wouldn't miss the brine when 5 and 6 are in place, they will be much better.

[superg1] 11/6/2014 11:24

Awol

Feel free to share once digested lol.

I see QPP has been hammered once more (just) Bod own goal re listing.

[awolagain] 11/6/2014 11:20

Good morning to all...

It was great to meet you yesterday...sorry I had to leave so early.

It was a very reserved Agm, however there was good news there and in my view little to worry about, they where very open to all questions and had answers to all. The bottom line is the order of the day and I feel very encouraged that is the focus going forward.
We will see mobiles rolled out sooner than we think...
They are in tune to what is going on with the other producers....helped in no small part by all on here 'digging' for info.
They have really hard questions to answer during the presentations...I think it will be some months before the IIs re-invest wanting to see steady progress to convince them that all is in order...one good month will not do it...hence the regular updates...not always at the end of the month.
A possible listing on the Canadian exchange might be interesting.

I have a Spanish speaker...will ask if they have time to watch and give me the details.

[superg1] 11/6/2014 11:03

The point being if Cosayach just got wiped out, which is as yet unknown that's 3000 to 4000 mt gone at the drop of a hat.

While it may take time for that hole in the market to affect prices, once the big end users hear of such an event, they would scramble to secure supplies going into next year and wipe out inventories.

So that's why it is potentially big news, the impact on the market could be much quicker than some anticipate.

Lance stated that if prices turn, end users lock in contracts quickly to avoid higher prices, they have their own down the line agreed prices on derivatives, so no one wants prices hikes affecting margins.

If you recall IOF while back honoured old prices in the price hike to their end users.

The market has never seen the events of the price hike before, and they now know how severely the price can shift.

It's just about getting ahead of the game on here.


While 'the market' (which doesn't pay attention) tries to work it out. I already know SQM and others have lost production that will not re-appear in quick time. SQM will be happy to let the price soar and they have shelved their $665 mill move.

SQM dropped production, Poss Cosaych out, plus demand increased etc etc. Is no different to that Japan earthquake situation in terms of volume going off the market.

[bogg1e] 11/6/2014 10:47

regarding 150% yoy growth:

2014 = 400 tonnes
2015 = 1000 tonnes (Io1-6 at full capacity + mini or two is 1000 tonnes)
2016 = 2500 tonnes (Would require capex in 2015 but doable if sites well selected)

[superg1] 11/6/2014 10:45

Bogg1e

Working on the chronological order of events here.

Nothing on Cosayach for months other than rumours they are up to their old tricks of illegal production and undermining the market.

Next thing we know is mining boss jailed. Conditional suspension of proceedings excepted by the Cosayach AND 38 wells to be closed under supervision.

If that meant mines were closing as it seemed then the comment was that news should appear over the next week or so.

Last night RTC report the details, and 2 union leaders are in that clip. Clearly Cosayach have fired workers.

So did 'suspension of proceedings' actually mean mines closing as suspected.

Cala cala was listed re the water rights, so that must have closed. Negrie has no EIA or water rights.

Soledad is closer to SQM rights than cala cala. So that is probably affected too.

A wait and see now on further media reports to see how good/bad it may be.

Last time around 33 wells took them from 6000 plus to 1800mt.

Now suspected to be on 3750 pre this case.

Could be back to 1800, could be completely wiped out, both are material going forward.

But it's seems the court case find for now is looking material.

[superg1] 11/6/2014 10:36

I've checked the names of the main persons speaking both are union leaders, one for mito 1 one for mito 2.

Some words on screen seem to suggest they are going to protest to the mayor.

It would seem based in union leaders talking that something serious has happened re Cosayach.

I did wonder if this would finish them off, with no water rights, the mining boss jailed and 38 wells closed, it seemed likely.

Obviously stuff overnight as the link says 5/6 hours old and I was the first to view it.

I assume over the next 24/48 hours, media written reports will appear detailing what has happened.

[bogg1e] 11/6/2014 10:24

Despido translates as "dismissal, redundancy, sacking". So this is a dispute about losing jobs, whether it means in turn the end of Cosayach is another matter.

[superg1] 11/6/2014 10:16

No idea re what it's all about, but it follows on from that court case so logic suggests, from the title that workers have lost their jobs.

How big the 'termination' is, is unknown.

33 wells closed in 2011 wiped out 4000mt. They were not even at 4000mt this time and 38 wells have been closed, SQM have won a water rights case, and the authorities did them for environmental damage.

All of their mines are in the SQM water rights area it seems. The most northern one shouldn't have been running anyway as they have no EIA permit, or water rights.

[superg1] 11/6/2014 10:04

I personally consider this next bit big news, I will let IOF know.

What we had were circumstances which indicated potentially that Cosayach had been badly hit. All the logic and digging suggested so but nothing official has appeared.... until now

RTC TELEVISION
TRABAJADORES DE COSAYACH PROTESTAN POR DESPIDOS

Translated that says

RTC TELEVISION
WORKERS PROTEST COSAYACH TERMINATION

Dated 10th June 2014

Anyone speak Spanish. The fall of Cosayach is firmly in play it seems.

[superg1] 11/6/2014 09:25

Che

Nothing to do with catching on, even the brokers don't understand it so don't expect the market to.

A few look under-valued at the moment v near term potential.

I mentioned a few recently. The market likes momentum regardless of the circs of a share.

EG putting the pieces together of heavy comments made yesterday, it sounded like IOF have good pod sites already sorted.

They also said they were very pleased with recent leases sorted in the last 2 weeks. They mentioned sites for 10k pods of 200ppm to 1000ppm per day.

They mentioned matching raw iodine production to sales.

They said the Japanese are very interested in raw iodine. Putting it all together is sounded as if IOF have a purchase order or some sort of contract potential with the Japanese.

So I for one be falling off my chair if some sort of off-take agreement is pending.

I have been tracking what a few have been doing in recent times and I heard various names yesterday, which include Mitsui, Mitsubishi, Toyota and Marubeni. 3 of them do iodine, and all of them have been getting involved on the lithium over the last year or so. The Japanese understand the importance of iodine and the market growth there v iodine resources.

So like Mr big I think there is some sort of off take agreement coming and IOF plan to match pod action to contracted sales.

LB even went into detail re contracts, stating the amount agreed can be supplied up front, across the period, or in full just before the end.

So imo having listened to it all and going back to what Mr B said, I forecast an off-take agreement with the Japanese.

In other words selling icecream to the eskimos

[diggulden] 11/6/2014 09:24

Well my top up at 54.5p this morning was well timed wasn't it. I swear my timing is the worst in history when it comes to buying shares.

[florence10] 11/6/2014 09:07

Jeff Ploen said all the Funds that jumped ship made money,hence a good chance they would get back on board at these levels.

[mr paul b] 11/6/2014 09:00

Lets hope lance does a good job presenting the company to the ii's.... is there a chance some of the funds that dumped will now come back due to lance at the helm once again ..

[wizard2020] 11/6/2014 08:41

Sorry to miss AGM thanks for all the info