Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 05/6/2014 22:17

Sand

No idea

Camer

They also have some new unique products, but they have never said what they are. The chem div has always done ok. The key change is moving to their own production not buying it from Chile.

Lampricide is a bit of a niche market too, as only two companies supply it in the US.

[sandbag] 05/6/2014 22:11

Sg1,Point re Tom Becker noted, but what has become of Dr Khalev? Is he still onboard?TIA

[camerongd53] 05/6/2014 21:57

superg1

Thanks for your comments. I have been a shareholder for over 6 months and this is the 1st time I have seen the processes briefly explained

A few months ago this site had a lot of concerns about cash running out and potentially dilutive share issues. Everybody is pleased about the increased production but the fact that it is being turned into sales (and subsequently cash) at a fast rate as we are operating at industry low levels of stock, seems to be have been ignored. This should allay a lot of fears about cash management or lack of it and allow the company to expand faster in the short/medium term.
If sales had not been as good and stock levels had built up, this would have been a very ominous sign.

[bogg1e] 05/6/2014 21:15

cameron the life of a well is anywhere between 15-50+ years. There is no reason to expect the iodine content of the brine to diminish over time. The life of a plant is estimated at 15 years or so.

In regards to costs, this is tied into consistency of operation. Im sure that when the plants are receiving the full amount of brine to run at an optimal rate, we will see opex drop to the $10-15 area.

[awolagain] 05/6/2014 21:00

Camerongd53

I would suggest you search superg1...one of the main posters here (you will find his name all over this board)...search his posts which go back some years and you will find the answer to all your questions....


GL

[camerongd53] 05/6/2014 20:16

One point that has been missed or not commented on in the latest update
'The iodine market continues to be challenging, but the Company is pleased to be at low level inventory levels compared to other iodine producers. The Company had near record sales for the month which demonstrates good demand for our products.' This appears somewhat contradictory i.e. challenging market vs record sales. Maybe there are good reasons for the sales, possibly quality and concerns over Chile. The really good thing is that sales = cash coming in = less pressure on capex. Also money is not tied up in stock. This bodes well for the future. Another cash raising or size thereof will not have such an adverse effect on the share price

First negative point, how robust is our cheap production process. The one thing that concerns me is delivering the low production costs. Investing in IOF is an act of faith that what is taken for granted will actually be delivered.

Second point - what is the life of a plant and will iodine production taper off over time and will the locations become exhausted?
Also can anybody explain briefly the production process and the form that iodine is in initially - I would love to know.

[bogg1e] 05/6/2014 14:24

Che7, thanks to the stirling efforts of the chap who looks into the google earth locations of IO plants, we appear to have 2 sites complete and ready to start construction, so i wouldn't be surprised if Lance has kept enough cash aside to finish one of them off before year end. Although for this year im happy with that, cash is now an issue, so keeping some aside is important just in case.

[joestalin] 05/6/2014 14:07

Yes, W, 11.04 am - Yahoo gone missing again?

[warmsun] 05/6/2014 14:04

According to my screen, no trades for three hours????

[che7win] 05/6/2014 12:17

With that large buy order out of the way, the MM's can mark this up on buying.

Nice uptrend developing ahead of the AGM, it would be good to see a decisive break of the year long downtrend, the market is spotting IOF is moving back to fast growth (and profitable last month!).

superg, the ASC was pointed out here a few times. growth faltering there, but 86% growth in our production last month, more from IO4 this month and then 5&6 next month.

Seems the company is holding back news on new plants builds.

[superg1] 05/6/2014 11:21

Back on Pampa Blance the planned SQM $665 mill move (now on hold).

The original report states the first phase would take 21 months.

That comment was Feb 2012. They later put everything on hold as we know. But when they decide to go ahead you can see how long it will take, and how much it will cost.

Going on comments form other mines, and the time lapse it should cost perhaps $700-$800 mill plus by the time they do it, and none of that can come from the now ended FUT 'scheme'

[ridicule] 05/6/2014 11:08

Numpties are alive and well. As soon as the share price moves a few pence they cannot keep their fingers off the sell button. If they waited until mid-afternoon they would make much more, even as short term traders. In the long run value will out but it is frustrating to see little sells piling in at 60p.

[angel of the north] 05/6/2014 10:31

O/T ASOS ouch! Almost halved since March.

[chumbo] 05/6/2014 10:22

So, SG: If your suspicions and assumptions based on your digging prove correct we could be looking at a shortfall in supply once inventories are depleted of approaching 25% of global demand?

Something's gotta give.....

[superg1] 05/6/2014 10:06

SQM

Having identified that they will need EIA's approved for seawater pipelines I thought I would check if they have applied for pipelines.

The answer is yes

FP55 – FPXA: These 2 projects have a final objective consisting in the installation of a sea water sucking system of 87 km from the Mejillones area to the SQM facilities located in Pampa Blanca.
The projected expenses correspond only to the filing of the EIA of the PB mine zone and the EIA of the PB expansion. Both projects are in process.


However they have a potential problem. Those don't cover the current areas of production.

The big plan was $665 million of capex to more or less move everything to a new site called Pampa Blanca.

Going back to the financial reports you may recall the spotting of cut-off grades at current mines for nitrates have been exceeded, such operations offset iodine/nitrates costs.

The $665 mill capex was abandoned post potash price collapse and iodine price drop. In fact they quote in the 2013 report that there will be no exploration this year.

It would seem at some point SQM will be compelled to move operations to the new area, and had that planned. That is not something they can achieve quickly.

The whole SQM move was said to be down to depleting mines (one recently closed). The Neuve Victoria mine (70% plus of iodine production) is listed as having 7 years left.

Note the FUT system, abolished recently (reinvestment of profits to avoid tax).

It's going to be a very tough few years for SQM too.

[joestalin] 05/6/2014 09:23

We should see what Numis have to say - they are only one good report from being perfectly sensible.

[awolagain] 05/6/2014 09:18

Phoenixs

" as we have all seen they are a load of cobblers and idiots when it comes to reports,research and analysis of smallcap. They are behind the curve."

Well said....the sooner they get dumped the better....useless and damaging are my thoughts...

[superg1] 05/6/2014 09:16

I've heard the odd thing about the other broker (not for discussion) but not that one.

I was thinking this AM re 'what next'

May production out of the way and impressive v the circs even admitted by TW.

Bit of a lull maybe as we hope for a second month of 40mt.

But then looking at the bigger picture.

They have said things which indicate io4 should be better this month, io5 power in a month and io6 to be completed this month. Things like further plants/pods and brine re-direction may pop up. Thinking about that maybe a pre AGM update to open the door to discuss the near term.

Other matters include the Cosyach situation which if significant is very material to the iodine world.

The the Chile water law proposals due this month. The 150 rule. That 150 rule if passed would scupper SQM rights they just fought so hard over to screw Cosayach and of course Cosayach have no water rights.

I also beleive they have a number of US customers.

Thinking about that if Cos production is to be hit, that will add to the case for IOF to add mobiles or another plant.

So in short a lot of important things potentially going on in the next month or two for IOF and the iodine production world.

If passed, as I recall, the initial timeline for compliance is 2016. You can't just bang in a pipeline, you have to go through all the EIA application processes first.

Hence the circumstances surrounding IOF's business model is clearly by far the best Iodine production opportunity that has appeared in decades. Consistency and execution is key, but they are moving towards production levels that will start to be a thorn in the side for SQM and co. EG they just hit a rate which wipes out what Sirocco took offline last year.

[phoenixs] 05/6/2014 09:01

I have heard the same Joe but as we have all seen they are a load of cobblers and idiots when it comes to reports,research and analysis of smallcap. They are behind the curve. They just don't get paid enough to invest in the research. That is why those who do the research can really get a heads up when it comes to investing in the likes of IOF.

[joestalin] 05/6/2014 08:55

I have heard that Numis are releasing something today about IOF 'fair value' - anyone else heard about this or is it a load of skollcob?