Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[little minx] 29/5/2014 14:26

It went into auction for a purchase of 2000 shares.

Is there a shortage of stock?

[barrywhit] 29/5/2014 14:26

Gone into auction.......

[bobsworth] 29/5/2014 13:12

Bogg1e Iam looking forward to when the current brine issues are behind us and Iofina start benefiting from this temp hiccup . Having emailed Iofina Iam told they now think the increased fracking will not go on for longer than 90 days. If that's the case and increased fracking started in May then August onwards plants 3 to 6 should be more adequately supplied with brine and hopefully taking them all upto their full operating capacity. That would also time well with plants 5 and 6 due to go into production in July. Its ironic that without the increased fracking plants 3 to 6 would have remained at sub operational capacity!!!! This together with interim solutions to offset the interruption to brine supply plus further optimisation and better management of downtime gives me confidence that the 400mt target will be beaten and Iofina will be quickly back on track to hit the original 700 to 1,000mt annual output targets.

[superg1] 29/5/2014 12:55

Titus

Yes please continue, I have missed your posts. Agreeing or not with TA views is irrelevant, you represent a large sector of investors and it's great to know your views whether others agree with them not.

Nothing in investing is certain, it never has been.

A whole host of top analysts on ridiculous salaries, with huge institutions, had SQM as outperform 3000 points ago.

Your 'free service' with the odd reference to the dark old days, is interesting and enlightening.

I can't begin to imagine the difficulties pre internet.

Take a blog and level 2 away from some now, and anxiety medication is in great need.

[mister big] 29/5/2014 12:54

I think one very over looked point is the technolgy works and we should see a steady increase in production, the bond was to slowly expand production once the teething issues elsewhere have been resolved. I see no reason why this stock can't return to being a growth story but it makes sense to get the existing engines purring. world iodine demand is growing ( slowly) and i therefore would like to think in 3 years time iofina could be a mid range producer making a steady return on capital.
The reaction of the shareprice is typical of a small capital and nothing to get excited about!

[veldt] 29/5/2014 12:39

Titus - please don't make this your last post. Your contributions have been warmly welcomed by some of us lurkers. This a share that needs all points of view.

[bogg1e] 29/5/2014 12:38

I still believe in the idea that 1000 tonnes per year is the alarm bell that will get other parties interested in buying IOF. 1000 tonnes from 6-8 plants per year would prove that the technology actually works in the real world for consistent periods. Consistency being the one thing IOF needs to prove but so far hasnt proven to any meaningful degree. Now even with brine issues I think it fair to say that IO3-6 can contribute enough to take us into the 45-50 tonnes per month range. And 45-50 tonnes is half the monthly production rate required to have an annualised rate of 1000 tonnes, with some leeway for downtime. Of course we wont come close to that in real terms until 2015 sometime, but we only need 90-100 tonnes per month to achieve that run rate. We are nearly half way there. Just need cash to be kept under control for the next 6 months.

[joestalin] 29/5/2014 12:37

Engelo - wait a couple of weeks - 'you guys' may well become 'us guys'.

[engelo] 29/5/2014 12:28

joe S: well done. Maybe you guys in the black need a separate thread :-)

[engelo] 29/5/2014 12:27

titus: all your input has been much appreciated. Please continue. Don't be put off by the dross on here who amuse themselves by mocking all TA and don't recognise your generosity in sharing it: it's so easy to do.

edit: various respected posters on here alsoo take an anti TA stance, sometimes imo for a bit of a laugh. You know who you are, and no offence intended :-)

[festario] 29/5/2014 12:23

Titus, TA is not misunderstood on this share, it simply did not work! That is clearly evidenced by your (and mine) enormous losses.I well remember all your imminent buy signals. Sadly, those in the know were actually selling, and the even wiser ones were shorting!The most fundamental issue on ANY company is whether it has positive cash flow.IOF did not, and still does not. It has also been badly mismanaged. Lest we forget and forgive too readily,...I am still wondering what happened to the cash expected in Q1 from those 'delayed' monster orders. it clearly did not happen at all, but we were told in an RNS that it was true.That does not mean to say that we won't enter a profitable phase in the near future. In fact my sizeable holding (in number of shares terms) means I think it will.Then, when the company is at a more stable stage of evolution, maybe some kind of fluctuating TA might apply here. But only sustained positive cashflow will herald that situation.

[nellyb] 29/5/2014 11:59

Titus, please continue to post - I for one enjoy them.

[joestalin] 29/5/2014 11:52

"As a technician, I don't do Hope, Belief, Luck or wishful thinking,"
Actually, you do - you merely call it something else.

I'm back in the black territory again - I wish I'd bought more in the 40p days, but you can't win 'em all.

[dcgray21] 29/5/2014 11:51

Titus - your wisdom is always welcome on this board . Thanks

[titus10] 29/5/2014 11:42

A little over a year ago I chose to take a flyer on IOF, on the basis of the "story" set out on this thread, supposedly based on "fundamentals".

By my calculation at that time, this would have to be a long-term position, as technically I saw it as in process of completing a major bull move up from October 2011, with most likely a three wave (down/up/down)"correction" of that bull trend to follow before, if the "story" retained validity, a new bull move could ensue.

It was the riskiest investment decision I have ever made and I have paid the price accordingly in a huge drawdown on my six figure sterling holding, during which time I have not sold a single share. But it was my decision and no-one else is in any way to blame for that.

I have not posted here for many months and this is likely to be my last, as I recognise that "Technical Analysis" is either misunderstood or at any rate not well regarded here.

I do so now because, fwiw, I think it probable that the 3-wave major correction is now in process of completion, paving he way for a new bull market in this share, should the company remain a valid, standalone enterprise.

As a technician, I don't do Hope, Belief, Luck or wishful thinking, so we shall just have to wait and see whether or not my personal view has any substance.

Cheers.

[superg1] 29/5/2014 11:39

Ors

They may not all be 'buyers'.

The naysayers were having a good old go around the 40p mark to trash it as they could, I doubt they knew the supply was drying up.

Now 40% off that 40p so maybe some 'forced buys' in play and the hope for poor performance in May, judging on the buy interest overall, isn't coming.

I suspect the chem div will be doing well too and the non iodine revenue kicking back in this year was ignored. I suspect that is Lampricide and the US fisheries lamprey problem this year continues to get some airing across various media sites.

The problems in Chile continue to look dire re margins for Iodine producers for the next few years.

Whether there will be Chile casualties over the next year or so remains to be seen, but for all the appetite to expand must be pretty sickening for now when they look at the figures involved and margins.

I hear SQM are planning a 150 km high capex pipeline. I'm not sure if that is freshwater transfer or seawater, but Neuve Victoria the main mine doesn't produce nitrates to offset costs as the nitrate cut-off grade has been passed.

I saw the indmin lady talking SQM pushing the price down to finish off smaller Chile mines. The fact is the cut-off grades off nitrates at other mines are marginal, so that's probably a bit of speculation on conference call comments or logic pointed out by Ben Isaacson.

The 'um er' answers are down to viability, not some secret cunning plan.

SQM have had their balls squeezed on various fronts, and the water laws proposed, if passed, will convert that to a nasty lump in the throat imo.

[eddyeagle1979] 29/5/2014 11:19

Great post Spike - summed up the situation well!

[orslega] 29/5/2014 11:17

yes, a well balance post spike. Like you, have been adding from mid 20ps and now have more than I really should, lol.

Nice to see the 25,000 and 50,000 buyers returning. Sentiment is also returning to the good.

Patience is indeed the key. In the meantime quite happy for 10% per day increase before next news.

[cordone] 29/5/2014 11:06

Spike,Lots of good calm sense from you as always. I suppose with the recent rise we will inevitably attract the day traders and the loon brigade again (sadly).

[cyberbub] 29/5/2014 10:58

Engelo yes it was in the most recent accounts, fixed asset valuation...

[ansana] 29/5/2014 10:51

Good post spike. We need to keep a lid on things and so do IOF. This time lets not have too much exuberance from us or IOF, steady reliable growth is needed. The market needs to believe again and so do we.

[engelo] 29/5/2014 10:34

cyber 21343 your IP valuation is as good as anyones!

I wasn't clear but was originally asking about your $20m figure, which (haven't checked) is probably fixed assets rather than a pot at the water and oil resource valuations?? If so we need to add these in too!

[diggulden] 29/5/2014 10:32

I'm still hurting from the dire performance in the last 12 months, whilst this recent rise is encouraging, I won't be getting excited until we hit the £1 mark again.

[spike_1] 29/5/2014 10:29

This bb being quiet suggests we are no longer a day traders and shorters plaything. I think it is important NOT to make the same mistake as last time, namely assuming always that IOF will deliver 100% and thus have unrealistic expectations.

Fact is, the price of iodine is much lower than two years ago, the cost of constructing each plant is much higher than we originally anticipated, and they don't have endless cash to throw at an explosive rate of expansion (assuming the iodine market could stand it).

We are still probably very much a 'one man band' when it comes to realising the future. We couldn't understand why the share price plummeted so far (twice) on Lance's departure. Well now we know why: the inability of IOF's Board to find anyone with enough knowledge / background to be able to execute Lance's 'plan'.

Partly Lance's fault for trying to do everything himself! We will soon get a new CEO, to compliment him, and it seems likely it is someone who really understands the iodine market, let's hope he also knows how to execute plant build and commission.

We were all very critical of CF, but fact is the bad news he kept throwing at us was well ... the truth, 47 mt in the first quarter was pathetic. And it's no use blaming management for the fracking schedule reducing brine flow, they wouldn't have known that when they started building, and the delays in getting the plants running was because they didn't know what they were doing - why - because they had never done it before. The only one who had was Lance - clearly there is a story there that needs to be told.

Bringing in extra layers of management was unaffordable, putting the plants with Chesapeake was in part a contractual obligation. And there were other mistakes too, many of them.

Well, we are where we are, and a lot of people made very significantly poorer as a result (including myself). We believed everything we were told: by Lance as much as everyone else. Were they lying - in most cases not intentionally, but they were guilty of unbridled enthusiasm, and we went along with it. As did the broker reports.

It is obvious now, that their expectations were un-realistic, and IOF were seriously at fault for always selling the 'best case' scenario. Tell me a company on AIM that doesn't? (There are a few - not many). FUM is years behind, QFI many months if not years, etc.

We were our own worst enemy, talking about spread betting, positions, even the margins we held. We even talked about who provided the smallest margin, it was madness.

In short - let's keep our expectation low and be pleasantly surprised (or not). If spread betting - don't get greedy!

If this month's figures tell me we can reach IOF's target of a run rate of 400mt by year end I'll be content, i.e. 30mt, not forgetting additional brine will give us more, as will a couple of pods by year end.

Best wishes - Mike (my holding now at an all time high).