Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 31/3/2014 22:11

copper prices will decide the trend I suspect Che.

Have a look copper price dive, peso weakened all the way on the copper price drop.

Recent copper price recovery and peso strengthened. China data tomorrow will determine short term moves.

[che7win] 31/3/2014 21:42

Superg,
I noted those trades today, they seemed mid-price yet high volume, wish I could get those prices!

Don't forget that a falling Peso creates increasing costs for the Chileans. For instance Chile has to import all it's oil, so those costs will be rising for them.
So the falling currency (due to copper exports ) is offset somewhat by import costs.

[crosseyed] 31/3/2014 21:33

frog,

From the 2012 Annual Report which would indicate to me that revenues may be booked when the customer takes delivery. That would normally be well before receiving payment:

NOTES TO THE CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

...(p30)

d) Revenue recognition
Revenue comprises sales of chemicals, iodine and ancillary products. Revenue is measured by reference to the fair value of consideration received or receivable by the Group for goods supplied, excluding VAT, rebates, and trade discounts.
Revenue is recognised when the amount of revenue can be measured reliably, it is probable that the economic benefits associated with the transaction will flow to the Group, the costs incurred or to be incurred can be measured reliably and when specific criteria have been met for each of the Group's
activities as described below. The Group bases its estimates on historical results, taking into consideration the type of customer, the type of transaction and the specifics of each arrangement.

(i) Sale of goods – specialty chemicals
The Group manufactures and sells a range of specialty chemicals. Sale of goods are recognised when a Group entity has delivered products to the customer. Delivery does not occur until the products have been shipped to the specified location, the risks of obsolescence and loss have been
transferred to the customer, and either the customer has accepted the products in accordance with the sales contract, the acceptance provisions have lapsed, or the Group has objective evidence that all criteria for acceptance have been satisfied.

(ii) Sale of goods – iodine and ancillary products
Revenues from the sale of iodine are recognised when the product is delivered at a fixed or determinable price, title has transferred, and collectability is reasonably assured and evidenced by a contract.

[superg1] 31/3/2014 21:33

Interesting

I did note quite a few of what I call 'back door' trades today that fell into the unknown column.

If you are as suggested I believe you exited entirely some time back, but was unaware of your return.

I thought you were building a fighting fund for something else.

[mister big] 31/3/2014 21:26

lol - i think i will see if there is a bulletin board for manx financial , to see whats being said there , probably much less active!!

[superg1] 31/3/2014 21:24

As in the last post it's more about knowing the huge and compounding problems ever-growing in Chile, which is going to really hurt the producers that cover 60% of the world market.

They control the price and they are seeing rising capex and opex at daft levels.

IOF is a good investment long term.

The Chile issues make it a great investment.

Let them crack on keeping prices low in their personal price war, the rising costs will over-take them and they will go bust.

Not ignoring the fact that over 80% of world supply comes from two countries who are subject to huge natural disasters.

[festario] 31/3/2014 21:24

Mister Big, apologies for the 'welcome', if you are the real deal.
Please buy another 2.5m and put a stop to this 'longest ever tree shake'!

[naphar] 31/3/2014 21:21

Frog... Iofina is a uk company...
It owns US companies. But the group is bound by UK GAAP is it not?

[mister big] 31/3/2014 21:18

ps i heard the shorter was none other than evel knievel and the share prophets!
I have met via Jim, and was curious to know how bulletin boards work never had been on one ( despite previous comments!) - needless to say this is one bear raid you have to admire but all bear hits end the same way - buy back - watch out for the water notification , that could cause a reversal of fortune short term.

i liked the last post very interesting....

[frog1] 31/3/2014 21:16

crosseyed,

No time to check now, but I think I noted that the cash flow statement for H1 showed all revenue as cash received. Being a US company, I have a feeling at the turn of the century they changed the rules for booking revenue to actually receiving the cash. In my day as long as the commitment was irrevocable you could book it, but that could lead to issues like revenue reversals if a customer went bust between delivery of goods(or in our case services) and them paying the bill. Thus I assumed that all revenue in H2 will be cash received and they are unable to book any of the delayed delivery until paid even if some product had been sent out. What is not clear is whether they will defer any of the costs associated with the delivery until they are paid or if they have to take them as they are incurred. Again in my day you could defer some costs until you booked the revenue even if they were incurred earlier. Thus you could push back costs from H2 2013 to H1 2014 if the revenue was not taken until then.

Hope that helps.

[che7win] 31/3/2014 21:15

Mister,
I know who you are, I was a BRT investor for a while, know all about it and your connections, think there was a N. Ireland connection there too.

Anyway, I know where to go to get good van insurance!

3.8m shares and your on the official notification, your welcome to post here anytime.

Ps funny u mention MFX, also owned it for about a week around 5p...didn't research enough to hold longer.

[mister big] 31/3/2014 21:11

I said i had bought 2.5m in last few days ( feels like a shooting gallery here!!), hence , if i have gone over 3% the notification will be on its way.

I held quite a few prior to the last few days but current price has got me moving!!

You are correct I founded brightside and sold my stake a year ago, and own a private insurance business and on a similar commodity theme, diamond mines in south africa!

I have followed iofina from the beginning and chris fay was chairman at Brightside and Stena, so I'm familar with iofina story and believe it's unbroken and recent speculation is just that.
Also involved with Jim mellon on manx financial where I am the biggest holders.

shoe size 10, handsome fellow with the travel bug ( just back from the HK 7's)

[superg1] 31/3/2014 21:03

Mister

Honest and straight-forward nice one.

Shroder

Going back we heard rumours SQM would be closing mines which was the opposite of what they said they would do. Then we spotted 400 staff being fired etc etc.

SQM had demand up by 2% last year which means 600 mt plus.

Algorta claimed they will do 3000mt this year, perhaps a big ramp up H2 as Q1 revenue figures tend to suggest 1000mt produced going by iodine prices at the time.

I asked way back re the patterns, and in H2 Chile folk tend to offload inventories. That may be down to the winter season for them which Sirocco claim affected them.

SQM production didn't tail off until late in the year, so the SQM drop in production amount has yet to affect the market.

As posted before I suspect SQM have dumped 3000mt per year, starting from around November 2013.

Sirocco down to 1000 pa but have some inventory, that is a 500mt drop.

2% up in demand plus 3% expected this year adds around 1500mt to the demand v the drops.

In total that means by the end of 2014 going on comments the difference in production and demand increase will be 5000 mt v the start of last year.

I had Algorta on 2000mt and they claim to have headed for 3000mt, so that's 1000 covered.

Cos were on about 2000mt and I hear they may have got to 3,700 mt, so that's 2,700 extra by those two.

SCM bullmine were said to be on about 600-1000 mt, so they may have added but no way imo have they covered the 2,300mt gap.

I also suspect their production costs may have them at break even or a loss.

Ioditech who get iodine said at $50 plus per kg, the small mines had 'managed to stay open'

Indmin said this is a price floor.

H1 is said to be when the iodine action demand is at it's hottest.

So in short by the time H2 comes, perhaps we should start to see the affect of SQM production drops, and where the balance actually is.

Some in the iodine industry expect $70 per kg to return in 2015. I think that is a bit high.

Chile producers like Cos and SQM hate each other with a passion. When the dust settles and tide goes out as we move through the year, the supply/demand balance should reveal itself.

But if ioditech and others are saying the price is unsustainable, the high costs smaller mines could be facing going bust.

On top of that the 5% extra tax comes in later this year, plus the removal of the exclusion tax.

That's why I am heavily interested in the 150 litres per second rule. going on comments by producers, my guesstimate is that 150 litres per second covers about 2,500mt.

So that rule, currently be pushed through for consideration may set a ceiling for some mines.

EG, SQM, cos and Sirocco don't use seawater, Bullmine don't have a pipeline.

SQM and Cos on their current rates would be forced to spend re a pipeline which would put the opex up. Cos may consider staying under 150 litres to avoid a high cost pipeline.

Seawater pipelines push up opex too.

Chile costs are still rising rapidly, they have big power and water issues, 5% tax rise etc etc.

So bring on the 150 rule imo as that really messes it up for them.

So with all the above you can see why we wonder if the demand/supply situation will tighten up.

No idea re the Peso but if it does manage to strengthen it compounds the problems for them. In theory it should sit around it's current level but did turn on the chart in recent times.

So a lot of factors yet to kick in this year, and if the price stays low the smaller mines could close, SCM being the most likely.

If that happens then there will definitely be a supply problem imo.

I doubt any analyst has the slightest clue about the various bits and pieces above re Chile.

[che7win] 31/3/2014 21:00

Mister,
How many do you own and are u going to keep buying?

I recognise the name, ex Brightside...so you know some of our directors (ex).

lend us a few quid :-)

[cyberbub] 31/3/2014 20:59

mister big, you are welcome to posting here if you contribute useful info and discussion (positive or negative).

But I have been unable to find a Mr Arron Banks on the shareholder register at this page: - which appears to have been updated recently. And if you have substantially more than 2.5M shares (as implied by your last post) then would you not need to have declared passing the 3% mark?

Sorry if I am sounding a bit suspicious, but you have to see that from the point of view of us mostly small PIs it seems surprising!

Anyway, we don't know each other from Adam, so feel free to ignore me :-)

[mister big] 31/3/2014 20:46

post rarely - never!
i signed onto for the first time in years and found i was a member , paid a subscription and signed on!] - thanks for the welcome by the way!!

By the way, i said i had bought 2.5m shares in the last two days not that i owned 2.5m.

[ammons] 31/3/2014 20:45

RB Energy (ex Sirocco Mining) have issued an operational update.



"Iodine

Iodine operations at Aguas Blancas will be limited to heap leaching during 2014. Production of iodine is estimated at 1,000 tonnes at a cash cost of approximately $29/kg. Aguas Blancas expects to supplement the sales of its 2014 production by reducing the level of its approximately 800 tonnes of finished product in inventory.

Completion of the expansion of the Agitated Leach Plant has been deferred until 2015. The majority of the equipment for the completion of the expansion is on site. Capital costs will be limited to settling the balance of payment of equipment orders ($1.2 million) for the expansion, completion of the chemical plant upgrade ($0.9 million) and sustaining capital of $1.4 million."

[festario] 31/3/2014 20:41

Mr Big?? New to ADVFN? Mr Big Liar more like....

He's been a member since 2006, and posts very rarely. (though he pays for the privilege)
Just taken an interest in IOF in the last day or so, and reckons he has 2.5m shares. A fantasist too it seems.

One thing I do agree with him on, we may well 'flatline' for 6 months.
Most shares that fall off a cliff like ours do just that.
I have seen it many times, and some of those have not yet started to lift off again (yet)
I am betting on IOF being different,by adding even more in the last few days, but positive cash flow being demonstrated to the market will be the key to our fightback.

[mister big] 31/3/2014 20:36

you have a point - my broker pointed my towards this site and i have been browsing with interest!

My names Arron Banks, and I appear on the shareholder register already, and despite the odds Im a bored multi millionaire, watching a repeat of East Enders!!
( i liked the name Mister Big!!)

been following iofina since the beginning!!

A

[mister big] 31/3/2014 20:33

The interesting point about iodine prices is that if Iofina is able to produce volume production at a cheaper cost ( in absolute) terms, it could cause problems for existing producers but at its current production even at say 750T thats less than 2% of total production. So the other producers will kill production to get supply and demand into kilter ( its been a semi monopoly for many years and thats how they think), Iofina will not even be on their radar yet.

So the last two posts are probably both correct - price falls will be followed by a tightening of supply.

[cyberbub] 31/3/2014 20:32

With respect mister big, if you have the bank balance to buy 2.5M shares, why would you spend your time posting on BBs? If I had a few mill in the bank I would have other things to be getting up to LOLOr have you spreadbet 500K shares at 5:1 ??

[florence10] 31/3/2014 20:31

If you are for real Mr Big then I take my hat off

to you,we'll done!

[che7win] 31/3/2014 20:25

Thanks mister,
How many more are you after?

[shroder] 31/3/2014 20:11

I am at odds with this logic, in fact I see the exact opposite happening.

SQM are restricting production due to falling prices ultimately caused by shrinking demand.

It's difficult to get spot prices as we have previously discussed, this makes imo SQM's decision to cut back production more significant.

At the end of the day Iodine is just a commodity just like any other, price will always be dictated by demand.

Just my pennies worth.

___________________________

superg1 31 Mar'14 - 16:49 - 17917 of 17933 2 3


"Then we have iodine, and in theory the supply/demand gap should tighten this year due to SQM pulling back and demand up. Later this year we'll know what effect that has had."