Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[mister big] 31/3/2014 20:10

bought 2.5m in last two trading days.
no trouble at all there is clearly a seller wanting out , most done around 50-51p
A

[che7win] 31/3/2014 20:06

Mister,
How much did you buy first time?

Did you buy all 2.5m over the past week and did you have trouble?
How many more are you after?

[mister big] 31/3/2014 20:02

for the record I owned a big stake at the beginning and added to it all the way to a £1 and then held through to the heady heights of over £2!
This is a classic example of a stock that was underpriced to start with , received a city following ( they are the biggest dopes of them all!) , ramped up until it broke gravity and now the obligatory fall from grace! meanwhile, the business is actually further down the line proving its technology and moving to actual production. Now the flatline for six months and then the come back!

A

[mister big] 31/3/2014 19:52

aidan 61 ,
sorry i'm new to adfvn since i was pointed to a thread by my broker and had to subscribe to read the comments - having previously been of the view that this type of comment was written by people who didn't have a clue. It turns out I wasn't that sure on how to post an article !( so it appears 3 times)
for the record i have bought over 2,5m shares in the market in the last few days and its a pure pleasure to see the share price so depressed - Im amazed at just how much discussion there is and how much is ill informed.

I have noticed some notable shorters are strutting their stuff on this stock but its interesting if you read the RNS, that not a lot has actually changed except Stena have agreed to push out the loan date on reasonable terms ( averting cashflow issues) and the management have decided (shocking revelation) to review the operations to make them more efficient and learn the lessons of new technology.The water permit news is probably a week or two away.

I did very well shorting this around £2 quid a share where it was hyped too high -
at 50P , its good value.
A

[crosseyed] 31/3/2014 19:22

frog1,

Thanks for the lesson but I understand very well the difference between P&L and Cash Flow. In fact, for most small companies, I regard the most important metric as being Cash Flow, although headline focus is almost always on P&L - or, with less justification, EBITDA.

The only reason I raised revenues (and EBITDA) was in reference to your brief cash flow analysis (which I very much appreciated, by the way).

In my own spreadsheet, I estimate most of the elements of conventional company accounts, dealing with P&L, Balance Sheet, and Cash Flow. For the latter, I recognise that there is a difference between when revenues may be regarded as bookable to the P&L and the delay in receipt when they affect Cash Flow. (I assume an average delay of 2 months; I would appreciate your thoughts on that.)

As I said in my earlier post, our estimates are not that different regards cash.

Thanks for your detailed reply.

c

[frog1] 31/3/2014 18:44

crosseyed


P&L is not the same as cash burn which is why companies put in the cash flow section in results. Revenue will normally show up as cash in, although even then revenue can be booked well before cash received as can costs before cash paid out. So look at the cash flow statement and not the P&L.

I was trying to understand the bears saying cash would be 0. I used the same cash burn for H2 as H1 so I used the cash flow statement from the interims and extrapolated - I doubt it would be higher by much if at all and may be slightly less. Capex will eat money, but increase the balance sheet and so will not show in P&L but will reduce cash. The additional interest was ignored, but also there was a large inventory build in H1 and they were producing iodine so much less spent on bought in iodine.

Capex would only be slightly higher since 2 plants were being built in H1 and they seem to be building 2/3 at a time so capex seems to be around a constant rate. There would have been some more salaries for running the plants. I then used the reduced revenue assuming all came in as cash which seems reasonable given what happened in the H1 cash flow statement. That gives $7 million cash at end of year, but with a large order to be paid for (cash received) in Q1.

In the business I was in we would have booked some of that revenue and associated costs in H2, but the cash would not have come until H1 thus a disconnect could occur between cash and profit. We had a lot of cash in the bank so the cash flow was not a worry, the P&L was for the market. At the moment for IOF cash flow is as important (more important) as P&L but as they move to profit/reduce capex that will not be the case.

[cyberbub] 31/3/2014 18:43

True meadow, but at some point the share price has to bottom out, if you believe that the company is moving forward with its business plan (albeit delayed).If you genuinely think the mgt are all incompetent bozos or crooks who are going to bankrupt the company then you should bail out at any price above zero pence.Personally I'm firmly in the first camp, though I recognise that this is AIM so there is always a chance it might fall a bit further, who knows?Seems to me that we have had an overhyped share price and now we are back to realistic, perhaps a bit oversold levels.IMO just the IP for Iosorb would have to be worth more than 50p a share to a major looking to buy the company??NAI

[meadow2] 31/3/2014 18:06

What have the elite on here got right in the past year? Well, to be honest, Sod All! Which is why some are more than sceptical now.

[cyberbub] 31/3/2014 18:06

RSI is low and we have bounced off 50p several times in the last couple of sessions. I hope we might now see a rise back to more realistic levels of the 70-75p we saw before the latest drop? We all know the 2013 results will be less than hoped for, so that should be priced in - the key is whether Mr Market will look forward 12 months IMONAI

[saltheart foamfollower] 31/3/2014 18:02

Roger Melly - you are her point personified. Pull your head out and be objective.
What have the elite on here got right in the past year?

[aidan61] 31/3/2014 17:46

mister big ..I have been buying heavily in the last 2 trading days...but I dont need to repeat it 3 times.....:0)

[mister big] 31/3/2014 17:30

I'm curious about the posts on iofina which seem very negative.
IOF is a small company which will take time to develop - the stock at £2 was a roaring short at 50P is a brilliant buy. The short interest is high and I think it won't take much to flush out those guys. The company has delivered all the current objectives ( and the water permit is still in play) and said it well take a rest in new developments while it works on making existing plant more efficient. Seems pragmatic to me.
meanwhile, all new companies take time to build , mistakes are made but the basic premise seems intact.
I have been heavily buying and think we are near the bottom.
A

[mister big] 31/3/2014 17:29

I'm curious about the posts on iofina which seem very negative.
IOF is a small company which will take time to develop - the stock at £2 was a roaring short at 50P is a brilliant buy. The short interest is high and I think it won't take much to flush out those guys. The company has delivered all the current objectives ( and the water permit is still in play) and said it well take a rest in new developments while it works on making existing plant more efficient. Seems pragmatic to me.
meanwhile, all new companies take time to build , mistakes are made but the basic premise seems intact.
I have been heavily buying and think we are near the bottom.
A

[mister big] 31/3/2014 17:23

I'm curious about the posts on iofina which seem very negative.
IOF is a small company which will take time to develop - the stock at £2 was a roaring short at 50P is a brilliant buy. The short interest is high and I think it won't take much to flush out those guys. The company has delivered all the current objectives ( and the water permit is still in play) and said it well take a rest in new developments while it works on making existing plant more efficient. Seems pragmatic to me.
meanwhile, all new companies take time to build , mistakes are made but the basic premise seems intact.
I have been heavily buying and think we are near the bottom.
A

[monkeymagic3] 31/3/2014 17:17

Bogg1e 31 Mar'14 - 16:41 - 17916 of 17917 0 0

" have assumed for a while now that Lances "ping" is an annualised production rate of 1000 tonnes, so for me thats the biggy. Who knows maybe the water permit too."

Think its more likely referring to his knicker elastic such is the "twist" they have got themselves in after the last 12 months mismanagement.

[superg1] 31/3/2014 16:49

2017

as 15m was paid for 30k acres that iof let go some time back I wouldn't worry too much about what they can get for 10 times that.

then of course Hal had already offered 15m for the water JV. So plenty of water to go under the bridge by then. Montana exploration. will no doubt have their hit or miss on oil sorted in the next year near iof.

Then we have iodine, and in theory the supply/demand gap should tighten this year due to SQM pulling back and demand up. Later this year we'll know what effect that has had.

After all 12 months ago they were talking big increases but the actual is a significant decrease.

[bogg1e] 31/3/2014 16:41

Netters, it will be interesting to see how much profit is put aside quarterly to repay the loan or set off against it, but the repayment should be possible by 2017. Im not going to hope that IO1-6 + recycling will come to more than 700 tonnes by end 2014. However I have not included two mini plants because once a BoD has let one down too often with deadlines, then its best to discount it til it becomes more realizable, but having done the maths on the parameters of the sites targeted by mini plants, one mini plant could equal the production of 1 x IO3 all the way up to 4 x IO2s. So if the mini plants are up and running in Q4, even if they dont add much to 2014 production numbers, they would definitely help IOF achieve an annualised production rate of 1000 tonnes per year by the end of 2014. I have assumed for a while now that Lances "ping" is an annualised production rate of 1000 tonnes, so for me thats the biggy. Who knows maybe the water permit too.

[madchick] 31/3/2014 16:32

O/t - JCS, I am unable to access PMs until late Tuesday.

[diggulden] 31/3/2014 16:16

Assuming we are profitable by that point, there will be alternative financing available to us if required anyway.

[naphar] 31/3/2014 16:09

Netters
Repayment of bond shifted til what, May 2017?
If they can do 6p eps next year as per your suggestion, that's potentially (depending on other cash considerations) $10m+ cash inflow.
Then we have 2016 when 10p eps must be achievable if the growth continues. Again, depending on other cash considerations, there should be enough to pay off the loan from 2016 free cash flow without needing to dip into cash generated in 2014 or 2015.

Of course that changes slightly if your 3 and 6 are cents not pence, but even just 15cents (3, 6, 6) of free cash generates before end 2016 could bring in $19m or so to repay the loan, again depending on other cash considerations.

3,6,10 would bring in $24m with the same caveats.

So where do you really see the issue being? For me, the risk now is in delivery, they need to get moving again on that front, meeting promises etc. I hope thats a phase now beginning.

[diggulden] 31/3/2014 16:01

Fair view Netters.