Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[shonny] 07/3/2014 11:47

And down she goes. Are you watching Charlie.

[ammons] 07/3/2014 11:47

It seems to me that the company originally arranged the bond based upon the expectations of the old management. 6 plant by Dec 13, 12 plant by Dec 14. New management are being more realistic and rearranged the terms NOW rather than take risks nearer the repayment date. Good deal for both parties I think. Frog1 has summed it up very well.

[phoenixs] 07/3/2014 11:38

I have no problems with the refinancing. Its a hell of a lot better than having to have had to go to the market when the likes of Ennismore and its cronies would have been able to pick up the stock at a cheaper price than today and have then cleared their short positions. Now at least they will have to pay up.

[nellyb] 07/3/2014 11:21

ffs shonny, bet your'e popular in your local boozer.

[shonny] 07/3/2014 11:13

Starting to fall back now just as expected. Back to the seventies by the close.

[che7win] 07/3/2014 11:12

frog,
I think if they had waited they would have had a much higher conversion price, but we don't know their thinking.

Personally, I think they have played it very safe, I think we would have been back to the original conversion price by next year, but then, I didn't expect we would reach these prices.

It certainly clears the air and allows spending on capex without worrying about pay back for another three years.

[meadow2] 07/3/2014 10:53

We need an RNS regarding IOF#'s 7, 8 & 9. No mention of them is somewhat surprising in view of the expected completion of IOF#6 relatively soon. However, it's good to see an uplifted mood around this share - let's hope that this continues.

[alphacharlie] 07/3/2014 10:53

SHONNY 7 Mar'14 - 10:26 - 16848 of 16853 0 0

A little bit of comfort and a small rise for the rampers today I see. Will it last? I expect most of it will have evaporated by 1630.

----------

Sorry - do I detect you sound a bit flat Shonny? As for 'Will it last?' Role on 16:40 then when I assume we'll see the price down in the 'sixties'

[frog1] 07/3/2014 10:50

IMO this is very good news, as it clears a major issue but I am not as happy about the terms as many seem to be and I think the deal was negotiated from weakness but had to be done.

If you look at the deal, they have given away 3.5% more of the company, for a small reduction in interest (actually only saves $75000 per year) and a 2 year extension on just $15000000, with no additional funding. Would people have thought that was a good deal 6 months ago?

The company obviously needed to sort out the finance as it was clearly a problem. This has cleared the issue of repayment which would have been the best option, but they clearly wouldn't have been able to repay by May next year and they obviously don't think the share price will be above the old conversion figure.

Make no mistake, this is a good deal for Stenna and they have driven a hard bargain imo. They still have downside protection as if the share price languishes below a £ in 2017 they get their money back plus 6% per year while they wait. In the event of success they get an extra 3.5% of the company for no more money - a total of 7% for a 4 year loan of $15000000. That's good business.

Although I think the deal was negotiated from weakness, I really like the business model and the company and I have always believed all they need is time to succeed and this has bought some. The delays have been more of a problem than I thought they would, but hopefully they are now on a more realistic plan.

I have bought a few more at around 81p this morning.

[bobsworth] 07/3/2014 10:44

It's a bit basic but I have looked up Iofina's official cash position and capital spend positions in 2012 fully yr and half yr + half yr for 2013 to try an estimate based on past capital spend what Iofina's current cash position might be after plants 4, 5 & 6 are complete.

Taking into account the delays I have added some significant hired staff costs for last 3 months.

Unless I am missing something significant It shows we still have plenty of cash!!!!

Shoot them down but here are my calcs

Capital expenditures
..... June 2013 June 2012 Year 2012
USA $2,075,514 $64,682 $4,657,921
----------- ----------- ------------
Plants Built/Ordered: IOF#3 IOF#1 + 2

So each new plant is costing approx. $2.5m to build
...............June 2013 ... June 2012 ....Year 2012
Cash Position $16,189,568 .. $10,388,096 .. $5,720,664

Assume plants cost the same to build

IOF#4 Minus $2.5m
IOF#5 Minus $2.5m
IOF#6 Minus $2.5m

Cash Position $9,689,568 (Now)

Staff costs - assume 15 new staff per plant on $60k/yr.
Three month spend : $675k

Cash position (minus staff costs) : $9m

Conclusion: Plenty of Cash left with Iodine production about to double and Iodine derivatives sales growing strongly!

Roll on 7, 8 & 9!

[che7win] 07/3/2014 10:33

Shonny,
you feeling the heat today, you are on the wrong side of the trend, called it wrong my friend.

You'll feel even more heat as you watch that share price accelerate up from here.

These bargain prices will soon disappear.

P/E of 10 next year on the GMP note is around 110p, I reckon we will be at a P/E 20 in due time.

[eddyeagle1979] 07/3/2014 10:31

Love the Shonny banter - always makes me laugh!

[captain_kurt] 07/3/2014 10:28

1630p not quite yet Shonny, give it 5 years

[buffaloman] 07/3/2014 10:28

Think shorts are closing - lots of 10000 purchases going through!

[shonny] 07/3/2014 10:26

A little bit of comfort and a small rise for the rampers today I see. Will it last? I expect most of it will have evaporated by 1630.

[jakes114] 07/3/2014 10:19

Naphar sorry no but try numis2bluematrix.com

[che7win] 07/3/2014 10:05

I reckon we will pass 100p in the very short term, Stena will be in the money very soon so I would have preferred a higher conversion price.

We aren't raising any more money, but this allows us not to worry about paying back any cash for a couple of years.
Anyone looking at the figures will see that we will be throwing off cash in 2016/2017.

PFD and FLYB recently raised load of money and their share prices shot up!

[naphar] 07/3/2014 10:04

got a link Jakes?

[jakes114] 07/3/2014 10:00

Good write up by Numis with 12 month target of 156p they think the Stenna deal is a good one

[meadow2] 07/3/2014 09:51

Bobsworth - I think that Ennismore have more time than you might think. Depending upon the prices at which they went short, there appears to be plenty of margin to allow them to take a softly, softly approach and cover themselves over time without unloading a massive number of shares all at once. They will still end up with comfortable profits overall.

It is the smaller operators who will have to get a move on!

[freshvoice] 07/3/2014 09:34

Well they said we needed money and we didn't!

They said we wouldn't get the water ( oh and couldn't sell it)


WE WILL SEE

[bobsworth] 07/3/2014 09:30

Ennismore and Pi's with short positions will have to now buy 3 million shares quickly!

[freshvoice] 07/3/2014 09:20

Don't tell me there are no leeks in the green grocers.

See my post of16754 yesterday at 11AM! ! !

There will be another one to send Shoony to the cleaners within the next ten working days! See if I am correct.

Pleased your Dad turned up anger taxes, I thought he was caught up in the tornado but it was only a hurricane,
Told you all would be OK in the end.

[ansana] 07/3/2014 09:11

Bobsworth good point I hadn't thought of that"Stenna must be very impressed with Iofina's current progress and whats to come to offer such terms"I wouldn't lend someone a fiver if I didn't think I would get it back.