Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[monty panesar] 07/6/2013 20:34

CR,

I take in what you say. I have invested for 30 years and am aware of the many pitfalls along the way. I just suggest you remain open minded at this stage.

As I see it the main risk was 12 months ago when it was "all talk" and at the concept stage. Now there are 2 proven plants running,are the lowest cost producers in the industry with strong barriers to entry. From here on it is speed of execution against market expectations rather than pure execution risk. Obviously iodine price will have an effect on margins but that won't really matter a great deal if they expand at the rate expected. Second plant has probably already paid for itself.

MP

[cockneyrebel] 07/6/2013 20:25

engelo - "Resource cos are routinely valued on potential future earnings"

Many co's are, and that isn't just resource co's. It's assets resource co's are often valued on, and future assets, ie oil that is likely to be there. But there are proven assets and unproven. Proven are worth a lot more.

IOF looks pretty unproven imo, with the petty turnover.

And always worth remembering what Mark Twain said 'a goldmine is a hole in the ground with liar at the top'. Applies to more than goldmines imo.

All the best

CR

[roboben] 07/6/2013 20:23

Continuing - at least one of those is likely to be contributing to revenues from early next year!Fundamentals - Fundamentals - Fundamentals!Thank you for your willingness to contribute in a civilised way. Much appreciated.IOF over-valued? I really don't think so!

[the librarian] 07/6/2013 20:20

There are quite a few major points that drew me into this share.

1. That the tech works and the rollout is going ahead.

2. The honest and integrity of the BOD. Many people have asked questions of the company in the past and had honest answers, if you look back at old RNS's they laid out their intentions and have stuck to the plan.They value PI's and interact with us to the point of setting up a specific presentation to meet our needs regarding questions and answers.

3. The research and sharing of information on here by various people from different backgrounds that has been extremely in depth and checkable.

4. If you look at it from a business perspective, OCG have rolled out one plant with limited profit projections and the price there?

5. The majority of PI's are buy and hold ... not traders... and therin lies the difference, checkable with spreadex and IG rarely accepting long positions because they are out their limits without being forced into an RNS.

6. I wanted to buy some before Uriney and Croc mopped them all up :)

[escapetohome] 07/6/2013 20:19

Dig
Excellent defence

CR quotes Kiplings 'IF' on his thread

If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;

That is an approach that IOF investors have shown in spades - self reliance and confidence - time and again doubters have knocked IOF - but even after such a rise you have never said to them 'told you so', but just shown absolute magnaminity.

[roboben] 07/6/2013 20:18

CR - If you read much of this thread you'll soon see that most of the posts are about company or industry fundamentals. That's because most here are LTBH investors, not momentum traders.Valuing early stage growth companies is very tricky. If you try to value this based on historic performance, as based on the latest published figures then the valuation can be labelled 'rich' but that could have been said of ARM for years (and many others). The point is that current production is not what it was last December - and production in six months time will be dramatically different again if company targets are anywhere near being met.The stock market is supposedly forward looking. IOF's current valuation hardly contains any forward looking element at all as relating to the iodine side of the business. As for the other three aspects of the company, all of which look quite promising though none has yet reached commercialisation, well they are all being completely ignored by the market.

[cockneyrebel] 07/6/2013 20:18

Monty.

Firstly I have no desire to go to any AGM. Directors will tell you what they want to tell you, not what you need to know in my opinion. If you don't speak to directors you can't be lied to or misled by them if they want to mislead you.

I took a load of flack on MUBL when I said it was iffy @ nearly £2. Punters don't want to hear what they don't like imo. Having lost 90% of its value I wonder if they now regret that?

I can list a load of AIM co's that have never come good, in fact it's far easier to list the few good ones. Can I name a foreign one that came good? I'm struggling.

AIM has the most lax regulation going imo. You used to have to have had several years profit to list on AIM, now start ups can virtually list on AIM.

Transense Technology, Clipper Windpower, Homebuy, Langbar, Neteller (now back as Optimal Payments) Toratrak, Plane Station, Tadpole, Forbidden Technology, Artisan (and the genius that was Stephen Dean), Intelink Foods ...... oh it goes on without even mentioning the resource co's. Fully listed co's get away with a lot but AIM is like 'chase the lady' on the corner of Brick Lane.

That's not to say there are no good co's on AIM, there may be and probably are. All I know is that compared to 10 years ago the amount of nonsense on AIM has risen 50 fold. '98% of the co's are rotten on AIM'? I dunno, that might be generous. I lived and breathed small caps for the last 15 years but now I only feel safe in fully listed stock (we safe as small caps get).

All I'm saying is AIM is a minefield and if you're into hopscotch expect to loses a limb or three as the default.

Now IOF might be the exception that proves the rule, it might be the first US AIM co to come good. But what you're actually doing is holding a deck of cards and banking on the next card turned being the Ace of Spades - it might happen, but what's the odds?

I'd sooner be on the opposite side of that bet with the odds in my favour.

Good luck - but I suggest you do what I do with all the shares I'm log on - consider what happens if you just happen to be wrong.

All imo/dyor etc.

CR

[engelo] 07/6/2013 20:10

CR: you've made a rare foray outside the listed cos :) You seem to want it both ways though: if no response to your negative stance then you must be right, and if there's plenty then that's suspicious!

And your potshot on future earnings: is that for real, or just a scare tactic? Resource cos are routinely valued on potential future earnings whether on AIM or the main market and imo you know that better than I do.

Such tactics may soften up some weak holders, if that's the intention. Whatever anyone's ethics, shorting is unavoidable and as has been said on here it helps to keep the share price robust.

Otoh if you want to find out more about IOF there's the AGM in a few days and you can check out the management, whose judgement/motives you also seem to doubt.

[sandbag] 07/6/2013 19:55

R&M,

I was expecting Sg1 to answer you but he must be offline.
The company say that they went on AIM because if there is an attempt at takeover all signed contracts count as equity. In other words the value of the company is not just based on present production but on production from future signed up contracts. I haven't verified this myself (DYOR and all that) but I have seen the cv's of the BOD and almost all are well experienced in M&A.
As for Dr Chris Fay; not only was he the CEO of Shell UK but also of Weirs. These are not lightweight positions and not ones held by a scamster.

[diggulden] 07/6/2013 19:37

R&M, couldn't agree more, I was invested in New World Oil & Gas for a short time, a classic example of smoke and mirrors RNS's and BS from the directors. I have very little experience compared to others so always willing to listen to others point of view. Just glad that it can be done in a civil manner, unlike so many in recent times.

[monty panesar] 07/6/2013 19:37

It is true 90pc of AIM stock's are doggie doo.

[randolph and mortimer] 07/6/2013 19:32

dig,

I think the main thrust of dissatisfaction with certain AIM outfits is that some directors do, actually, tell lies in statements and to one's face and history teaches us that this has been the truth since the start of the USM. A senior gentleman at a leading market maker confided in me that he believed 98% of Aim companies were carp. A bit high, I thought, but you get the point.

I am not saying in any way that your Board is anything other than honest, decent and meticulous, only that disappointment comes out of nowhere at times and occurs more in this particular index than any other.

With investments, one is, in reality, attempting to predict the future using as many clues to hand as possible. Aside from figures - actual and forecast - and technical analysis, there is only experience left to add into the decision mix and I should put that element ahead of the other two. CR is speaking from experience therefore and not from superg's forecasts or anything else. Nothing more than that.

Good luck with your long and remember to protect your capital when the time comes.

[monty panesar] 07/6/2013 19:27

I think CR should go to the AGM in a few days time and he might get get a better "feel" for the company and realise the former CEO of Shell and non exec of Anglo American,BAA and Expro isn't a "pump and dump" merchant!
Stena were the cornerstone investors here and I guess they called the European listing.

[the librarian] 07/6/2013 19:26

ppm's / metric tonnes, use Iofina old site..... on page 10 there is a simple graph that shows what is produced @70% efficiency, to get to 90% multiply by 1.29.

That is their calculator and equates to the 42 gallons, end of story I hope!

hxxp://oldsite.iofina.com/IOFINA%20WET%20OCT%2009.pdf

[bobsworth] 07/6/2013 19:14

Good post Dig

I hope CR is arround when Iofina smash through £ 5, £10, £15, £20, £25 etc and start paying out a very good divi from mid 2014, proving Iofina are not another "AIM scamster"!

Professional eh! Say no more!

Had my fingers badly burnt in the past on professional advice. Never again! Hence why I, like many on this excellent bb, do our own own research and the maths.

[timbo237] 07/6/2013 19:05

CR - as far as I can see the vast majority of what is posted on this board is based on pure hard research by a very dedicated few - not hype as you suggest, Everybody is then able to decide to make their own investments decisions

[diggulden] 07/6/2013 19:05

More sausages ;)

Good weekend all.

[beercapafn] 07/6/2013 19:02

Good reasioned post dig.

[cockneyrebel] 07/6/2013 19:01

Dig - I'm not knocking what you've made here, well done - a multi-bagger is a great result.

All I'm pointing out is that at this point it might be sucking in the shall we say, less experienced, less thinking investor that hasn't wondered how these are going to multi-bag to a £1billion mkt cap (ie, the size of a FTSE250 co) when the current sales are pitiful and it's a US listed AIM co.

I think it's fine, totally great in fact to ride a chart and make money from momentum. The problem I have is when a stock like this is given great amounts of hype where novice investors haven't a clue what they are buying and end up as the greater fool holding the baby. For as sure as sausages are sausages, if these ever do warn or there is something 'scammy' revealed then the shareprice halves and more in an instant on this rating imo

All the best to you.

CR

[warmsun] 07/6/2013 18:59

Good post digg,

[diggulden] 07/6/2013 18:41

CR,

Thanks for the response.

A few points:

'my opinion I suddenly got a deluge of defence for the co. That sort of sets my alarm bells going really when you cannot say how you feel about a co without a herd descending on you'

You did say that your opinion was the company could be another AIM scamster... sort of prompted some defence don't you think!!!

'you won't know whether these are on course till Sep 2014 then doesn't that tell you the valuation here is ahead of itself?'

That is not what I said. I know they are on course now, based on IO1 and IO2 update. IO3-IO6 online this year will continue to back that up. IO3 producing anything around 300MT a year will establish a new base for the share price September 2014 will confirm Iofinas position as No.2 producer of Iodine in the world in my opinion, at which point, on the basic math of revenue and profits on 2000MT per annum production, the share price will be multiple(s) of where it is today.

I like your investment strategy, sausage and sizzle made me laugh, your risk/reward basis is right for you, but too conservative for me, but that is what makes the stock market a, well, market! Buyers and sellers. 500% increase since my initial investment in Feb last year obviously makes me very happy, but I don't intend to sell any, not yet. Maybe that makes me a mug, but I think I can see the potential.

As I said before, time will tell, as with all things.

All the best. Dig.


One last thing, it is nice to have reasoned debate, something that is so rare on these BB's. People should take note!

[cockneyrebel] 07/6/2013 18:27

Hi diggukden.

My reason for asking was several-fold really. Firstly I was amazed that when Randolph & Mortimer asked me a simple question about IOF today re my opinion I suddenly got a deluge of defence for the co. That sort of sets my alarm bells going really when you cannot say how you feel about a co without a herd descending on you - suggests the punters fear negative comment imo.

Secondly it is a US based co and as I've never come across on on AIM that hasn't gone bad to my knowledge I wondered why these would be different.

If you are telling me these have a £300m mkt cap and petty sales and you won't know whether these are on course till Sep 2014 then doesn't that tell you the valuation here is ahead of itself? You have to wait 18 months and expect these to rise from here while you wait for the confirmation of financial success in 16 months time?

The AIM Index is flat from the start of the year, it hasn't risen. That is because so many go bad. If you strip out the genuine successes like Asos and the rest of the UK based AIM stocks (and even ASC doesn't pay a divi!) that are profitable and pay a divi the chances of finding a successful straight co on AIM is very difficult.

Seems to me there's a lot buying the sizzle here but there isn't a sausage on offer - I like buying the sausage, not the sizzle, at least not when the sizzle is so old.

Rare I short much these days but this looks a serious candidate imo

All just my opinion/dyor etc which I'm sure you have re the track record of US stocks on AIM, the director track record, board structure etc.

CR

[battery] 07/6/2013 18:17

Maca,

Yes, we have used the O&G barrel size in the calculations. That is what the supplier deals in - they are O&G not beer.

The original application for water extraction was for 10k acre-feet or 212k bpd of water. That equates to a 42 gallon barrel also.

Agreed - it would be a large error one way or the other (and worth getting absolute confirmation on), but I think we are correct using 42 gallons per barrel.

[maca1212] 07/6/2013 18:03

superg,

Have to disagree on the math, perhaps my assumptions are wrong:

1 US barrel (water) = 31.5 us gallons = 119 litres.

(from here) hxxp://www.unitconversion.org/concentration-solution/parts-per-million-ppm-to-kilograms-per-liter-conversion.html

1ppm = 0.000000999 kg/l

200ppm in a volume of 119 litres gives 0.0237762 kg of iodine per barrel (100% extraction)

30k barrels per day = 713.286 kg per day

times 365 days = 260.3 mt

but take off 5% plant down time = 247.3 mt

The most likely error could be if the term barrel is interpreted as 'oil barrel' rather than 'water barrel' this would be a good one to clear up, but in the US if water is being sold by the barrel what you will get is 31.5 us gallons and not 42.

M

[diggulden] 07/6/2013 17:58

CR, I welcome your presence here.

I'm not entirely sure how relevant the question is though regarding US companies listing on AIM performing well. Surely what IS relevant is the fundamental analysis of this company, for which I recommend you do.

I was lucky enough to buy in here early, although not as early as many, and sit on a share price of many multiples of what I paid, the share price is where it is based on expectation agreed, not on actual achievements. It is a story you either buy into or you do not.

The true 'proof' will be in the September update in 2014, when, IF all is delivered, we will be producing in excess of 2000MT per annum, the figures are then easy to work out from there, as we know OPEX, and we know the Iodine contract prices. As with much of AIM, it is all about the IF, I for one expect the IF to be a when, but time will be the true measure here.

Wishing you all the best with your investments, I certainly value your opinion on your thread.