Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[noli] 05/2/2014 11:18

I fully agree SG, people think ennis can just drip feed them into the market which is true but only because they have to. They have no other option imho with 1.5/6 million to buy back.

[superg1] 05/2/2014 11:07

With io4/5 news mentioned and the water news explained let's hope they think we are in a lull and sit on them for a while.They are not the only potential large buyers in the market so the longer they hang on after this big churn, the better.

[knobbly] 05/2/2014 09:07

Not sure if this has been noted already...

Looks like Ennismore are beginning to close their short position.

hxxp://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B2QL5C79/all

[sweetnodude] 05/2/2014 09:05

Past 9am with next to nothing on the offer is a definite sea change.

[bobsworth] 05/2/2014 08:59

Iofina "encouraged" by Montana water rights meeting
Tue 10:23 am by Ian Lyall

hxxp://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/51792/iofina-encouraged-by-montana-water-rights-meeting-51792.html

[noli] 05/2/2014 08:36

upp, imho we have had and still may have a seller, ennis imho have been closing into this which is stabilizing the price, as soon as the seller stops as we have seen we start rising.

The more interesting thing for me is the orders on the buy side from lse are allways around 77p hence the larger than normal spread of 4.6%.

[uppompeii] 05/2/2014 08:31

noli, ennis only have to close "on the drip" over a period of time and there will be little impact on the share price apart from sentiment that they are taking their profit.

[noli] 05/2/2014 08:26

It looks like the seller has gone for now but could be back, with ennis starting to close we could start to motor.

[che7win] 04/2/2014 16:48

I wouldn't mind a back seat driver.

[superg1] 04/2/2014 15:16

MasureLB understands the business like no other, the new arrivals will take time to get a full grip of matters.That renowned red back mining team at Sirocco couldn't make a go of it, but that's mainly down to Chile issues and partly due to the lack of iodine knowledge. If things don't improve, then changes will surely come. As you recognise, it's a great opportunity with the right driver.

[masurenguy] 04/2/2014 12:59

che7win - 15806: I guess it comes down to understanding and confidence.

I understand the potential but have yet to be convinced that management can successfully exploit it ! :-)

che7win - 15806: I think if you want growth that is transitioning from potential to actual tangible profits, with a competitive moat, IOF beats any I've seen.

I hope that you're right since it is the potential here that keeps IOF on my watchlist !

[napoleon 14th] 04/2/2014 12:49

SHONNY can't.

That would take more than ten words......

[che7win] 04/2/2014 12:26

Masureenguy,
I guess it comes down to understanding and confidence. I have done enough research, contacted enough people to understand the potential as well as the problems. The problems provide upside from last quarter - because they can be fixed.

Look at most blue sky companies in the market right now and they have no tangible proof that they will meet expectations.

e.g. TUNG that is on 4p EPS next year - look at it's share price.

I think if you want growth that is transitioning from potential to actual tangible profits, with a competitive moat, IOF beats any I've seen.

[nellyb] 04/2/2014 12:22

shonny, can you put some detail on that statement?

[sweetnodude] 04/2/2014 11:57

Which is exactly why we are where we are right now. This is this....

[masurenguy] 04/2/2014 11:49

phoenixs - 15802: my point being is what Che has written.

RLOL !

CHE7WIN - 15800: If you give this a P/E of 10, when do you expect the market to move it onto next years P/E 10? Do you use a P/E of 10 in two years time as N3etley does? That actually is quite sensible. Ignore two years ahead, just looking at next year, if we say IOF will do 14p EPS next year, then what price do you discount back to today?

Even using a PE of 10, the fact remains that this is based upon projections that may or may not be realised. Whichever way you look at it, there is still considerable speculation here in relation to deliverables !

[phoenixs] 04/2/2014 11:42

my point being is what Che has written.

[shonny] 04/2/2014 11:37

I can see 65p coming here within a month.

[che7win] 04/2/2014 11:35

Masurenguy,
I use a general rule, the same rule documented by Peter Lynch.
Why would you expect a FTSE 100 company to be on a P/E of 20, unless it can sustainably grow at 20% a year or it has very high barriers to entry with predictable growth?

I would say we are growing around 100% between this year and next year, we can easily grow at 20% over the next few years, a P/E of 20 is very sustainable and about right.

The early stage businesses are more my cup of tea, with IOF we have plants that are proven in their field and a working model to roll out.

It now has a predictable roll out path, they need to do some things such as more patents on the model but the model works.

12-18 months from now, the brine disruption will be a thing of the past, the market doesn't understand that.

IOF is growing much faster than 20%, what would you put on a company that will grow between 50-100% over the next year (if not more)?

You know that growth has to be factored in, the market looks ahead, you can't seriously put a P/E of 10 on this stock when it has aggressive growth ahead of it.

2014: 7p EPS
2015: 12 plants, 2000 MT, ~14p EPS, water - potentially another 4-8p EPS. Rough calculation, I don't have my notes at hand.

If you give this a P/E of 10, when do you expect the market to move it onto next years P/E 10?

Do you use a P/E of 10 in two years time as N3etley does? That actually is quite sensible. Ignore two years ahead, just looking at next year, if we say IOF will do 14p EPS next year, then what price do you discount back to today?

Numis says 156p, but that is not an accurate assessment, Investec were closer to the mark.

One has to factor growth into the stock - tripling our plants this year, otherwise we are a sitting duck.

I would imagine, one of our Chilean competitors would be quite happy to buy growth for a current year P/E of 10, a bit of a bargain I'd say.

I won't be surprise if we are at 150p within 6 months, the market likes a bargain and right now I can't see a better place to be.

Every independent iodine producer in the US has been taken over by the Japanese when they get over 1000 MT, have a think about that.

[masurenguy] 04/2/2014 11:00

Your point being what..........?????

We all know that many companies are valued from time to time on sentiment rather than anything tangible but that is hardly a sound basis for an investment strategy!

[phoenixs] 04/2/2014 10:58

....and there are many companies who have very high stock market values and make losses!

[masurenguy] 04/2/2014 10:55

che7win - 15780: P/E of 20 on around 7p EPS which is achievable is 140p, include water at half the applied for rate and for half the year and that's another 20p.

What makes you think that this company should be rated on a PER of 20? There are many FTSE100 companies on a lower rating than that and many early stage businesses that are profitable and with cash in the bank who are rated on single digit PE ratios.

If IOF do achieve an eps of 7p, a PER of 10 would only put the shares at 70p which is just below where they are now and without any profits having been made to date. The current price is largely based on future expectation as distinct from actual and verifiable fundamentals.

Don't get me wrong - I think this company potentially has a great future but management still have to deliver and currently they have a credibility problem. I'm still looking for a suitable entry point here but am still not tempted yet!

[superg1] 04/2/2014 10:40

That may be it for a month or two for them Che.

[che7win] 04/2/2014 10:22

Anyone selling now is gifting their shares over to Ennismore.
Noone sells, Ennismore will have to pay more, simple as that.

At least make them pay in the 80's!